Price Forecasting Archives - Page 18 of 24

By Dean Rogers

It is a glorious time of year. The evenings are cooler, the air is a bit crisper, and the seven month void in my soul has been filled. Football season is upon us, and all is right with the world.

I grew up playing football and my father and uncles coached youth football for over 30 years. Being a coach’s son I have always had an appreciation for the tactical side of the game, especially low scoring (some might say boring) defensive struggles. These games are won not only by raw talent, but strategy, patience, and perseverance.

A defensive battle on the gridiron reminds me of the natural gas market right now. From the outside looking in most see a stale and boring game being played. It is a bit like watching grass grow and they have already switched channels to watch a more exciting game. However, there is a battle taking place between bulls and bears and natural gas’s game is nearing the end of the fourth quarter.

My money is still on the bears (hopefully Cutler has been benched).

Natural gas has oscillated in a range that is widening ever so slightly since August 24. The pattern it forms is called an expanding triangle, which is negative because the market entered the formation after falling from $2.959 to $2.641. Expanding triangles form when there is mounting indecision and typically has bearish ramifications.

The bulls may attempt one last Hail Mary before all is said and done. Another test of the upper end of the wedge near $2.75 might take place over the next few days, but odds continue to favor a decline to $2.54 and lower once prices break out of the triangle and close below $2.62.

The natural gas game may go into overtime, and it may be another week or more before prices finally break lower. For now though, stick to your strategy, be patient, and persevere.

This is a brief natural gas forecast ahead of tomorrow’s EIA report. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary is a much more detailed and thorough analysis. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four week trial.

By Dean Rogers

WTI crude oil is settling into a trading, the boundaries of which will be determined over the next week or so. It is still too early to state the exact boundaries. Technical factors tell us the range will likely be set between resistance at $50.5 and support at $42.5. This is a wide, but typical, range for crude oil.

For the next day or so look for prices to rise to at least $46.4 and possibly $47.2. Both are confluent wave projections and retracements. $46.4 is also in line with Monday’s $46.41 swing high.

KaseX confirms Tuesday’s move up with a filtered long signal (green diamond) on the $0.50 Kase Bar chart shown below.

First support is $44.9 then $44.5 and $43.6. A close below $44.5 would shift odds in favor of at least $43.6 and very likely $42.5.

This is a brief analysis and outlook for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Commentary is a much more detailed and thorough energy price forecast. If you are interested, please sign up for a complimentary four week trial.

By Dean Rogers

Unseasonably warm weather for early September has supported prices in the prompt month and prices were trading in a tight range between $2.64 and $2.725.

Late Wednesday afternoon October natural gas finally broke lower and a new contract low was made. In addition, the winter strip also fell to new lows again confirming the negative outlook.

Look for at least $2.59 ahead of tomorrow’s EIA storage report and possibly $2.53 before the end of the week.

Trading will remain choppy, so another test of $2.72 and possibly $2.77 is not out of the question. We expect $2.77 to hold. A close over this would call for an extended upward correction.

By Dean Rogers

Natural gas continues to hold the lower end of the trading range between $2.65 and $2.95 on a closing basis. October natural gas futures stalled at $2.641 and subsequently formed a bearish flag (blue trend lines). Flags are generally a reliable type of continuation pattern, which means the flag should break lower soon. The next targets are $2.62 and $2.55.

A daily morning star setup (not shown) indicates the upward correction may extend. Resistance at $2.75 should hold. This is the 38 percent retracement from $2.959, the 62 percent retracement from $2.816, and the 1.382 projection of the wave up from $2.641. A close over $2.75 would confirm the morning star and call for an extended correction $2.80 and possibly $2.85.

Overall, our bias remains negative. Therefore, even if prices rose to test resistance we expect $2.75 to hold and for natural gas to continue its decline.

By Cynthia A. Kase

Read on TraderPlanet.com

Clearly US Stocks have been declining as the drop in demand in China has finally hit hard. It’s easy to sustain robust growth from a low base, but as an economy grows, that becomes more difficult, as China’s machinations show. The spillover to the Dow Jones Index has been evident since mid-May as its been oscillating in a downward pattern since then, bouncing down the cliff, as anyone paying attention will have seen. US Stocks have now rolled off the cliff edge. Now what? Continue reading US Stocks Rolled Off Edge Of Cliff: Now What?

By Dean Rogers

Who could ever forget the iconic 1984 Wendy’s commercials featuring three little old ladies yelling “where’s the beef?”(If you are too young to remember treat yourself to taking a minute to watch.)

The commercials and the phrase “where’s the beef?” spawned a cultural catchphrase that has since become a statement questioning the value and substance of a product. The value of beef, priced in live cattle futures, has tripled since 1984, but a downturn in prices over the past 10 months begs the question, “where’s the beef going?”

On October 31, 2014 the perpetual (first nearby) live cattle futures contract rose to an all-time high of 171.975 cents per pound. Since then, prices have fallen in a corrective manner and recently came very close to meeting major support at 141.35. This is a highly confluent target that serves as a series of Fibonacci projections for the waves down from 171.975 (blue), 164.25 (green), and 156.475 (red) as shown in the chart below.

A close below 141.35 would open the way for the decline to continue to at least 135.6 and very likely 131.4. The latter is another highly confluent wave projection and potential stalling point, but the key target for live cattle futures is 127.0. This is the 1.618 projection of the largest and most important wave down from 171.975 (blue) and the more recent wave from 156.475 (red).

The decline from 171.975 is no doubt a correction of the long-term move up, and corrections normally hold the 1.618 target. Therefore, we expect to see a significant pullback and potential bottom form at 127.0. However, a sustained close below this would open the way for an extended decline to 122.05 and possibly 112.0.

The decline has stalled at 142.25 for now, and so far the subsequent rise to 150.85 is most likely a small correction of the move down (yes we are talking about corrections of corrections). The recent move up is most likely being driven by a typical seasonal boost for beef ahead of Labor Day.

The upward correction may extend, but 153.4, the 1.00 projection of the wave up from 142.25 (pink) and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from 171.975 should hold. The connection to 153.4 is made through the 0.618 projection of 149.8.

Based upon most technical factors as of this analysis, we don’t expect to see prices rise much higher than 153.4. This is a very important level not only because it is a confluent retracement and wave projection, but it also protects the 156.475 swing high. A move above 156.475 would take out of the waves down from this swing high and from 164.25. As a result the likelihood of a decline to or below 141.35 would be significantly dampened.

Therefore, upon a close over 153.4 odds would shift in favor of an extended upward correction to 156.8 and likely 159.5, a crucial target because it is split between the 1.618 projection of the wave up from 142.25 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from 171.975. A sustained close over 159.5 would indicate the decline from 171.975 is over and would call for 168.5 and higher.

So to answer the question “where’s the beef going?”; technical factors show that prices will most likely fall once the Labor Day demand boost passes. Look for resistance at 153.4 to hold and for 141.35 to be challenged again. A close below 141.35 will call for 135.6, 131.4, and 127.0.

Check out Kase on Technical Analysis to learn more about trading and forecasting price using technical analysis.

By Dean Rogers

For most of 2015 natural gas has traded within a range between $2.65 and $2.95, and within the past week prices have tested both the upper and lower boundaries of the range. After failing to overcome $2.95 and stalling at $2.934 on August 12, prices declined to $2.68 on August 18, a confluent target for the waves down from $2.957 and $2.934.

Technical and fundamental factors favor a continued decline below the $2.65 boundary of the range to at least $2.60. This is another confluent target and a close below $2.60 would confirm the break lower out of the trading range.

Wednesday’s bullish Harami land and star setup indicates that the upward correction from $2.68 might extend to $2.776 and possibly $2.834 first. These are the 38 and 62 percent retracement of the move down from $2.934. Resistance at $2.776 should hold, but $2.834 is the threshold for another attempt to overcome $2.95.

Overall, the bias is negative. The move down may be a grind lower for now, but time is running short for summer weather to continue to support prices above $2.65. Last week’s push to $2.934 may have been the last hurrah, and the move down is now poised to continue.

By Cynthia Kase

Read on TraderPlanet.com

“Ask Kase” and your question may be chosen as the subject of a future column (askkase@kaseco.com).

The media sector has been hit by fears about streaming video and unbundling. Disney reported decent revenues, but is trading at a relatively high multiple. With high hopes that Star Wars will boost Disney’s stock price, is the decline now a time to buy in?

Disney climbed from a $15.14 low back in 2009 to a $122.08 high on August 4, only to suffer an $11 plus down gap on the following day’s open. This precipitous drop, continuing to $104.24, disconnected the following price action from the previous uptrend. Though the dropped seemed large, it only retraced 38 percent of the rise from $78.54.

Aside from waves, the only key pattern is an intraday coil, shown in the chart below (dark red). Though coils are signs of uncertainty, this one appears to be a failed attempt to recover. The last wave up in green would be expected to exceed the earlier one, which did not happen

$0.75 Kase Bar with Coil

If there’s a break higher, though, I’d buy above $111 and increase my position above $117.9. Otherwise, I’d watch $100. If it doesn’t break, then I would time in on signals as prices rise from a short-lived downside test. I would buy on a bounce up from $93.4. But if this lower “drop dead” support breaks, I’d watch Fantasia instead of DIS for now.

Here are the details. As the coil’s apex is approached, a breakout is expected, with upside and downside targets $117.9 and $97.8 respectively.

The decline stalled before hitting its 21 percent retracement, $100. This is a hugely important price because it is the first retracement of the entire move up.

Retracements to $122.08

$100 is also a key extension for the waves marked in magenta in the chart. The wave from $122.08 extends to $100 as its 0.62 projection, and the Phi corrective projection. The 1.62 extension for this wave is $93.4.

The magenta wave down from $111 extends to $100 as its 1.38 projection. The last small wave from $109.28 targets $100 as its 2*1.38 extension. (For more on wave targets, check out Kase on Technical Analysis).

The waves shown in blue calculate to immediate support at $101.5. This is also Kase DevStop3 on the weekly chart. If this level isn’t broken on a move lower, then the tone will improve. It’s likely though, if this is tested, $100 will be met. $100 is also a psychological barrier.

Below $100, there’s a wave projection to $97.6, the coil’s lower target, but a break of $100 will likely lead to the $93.4 confluence point.

On the upside, the recent $111 swing poses initial resistance both structurally and as a wave target. Above this there’s a confluence point at $114.9, but the big number is $117.9, coincident with the coil’s upper target. Above this, a resumption of the uptrend would be expected, with reasonably confluent targets up to about $133.

Send questions for next week to askkase@kaseco.com, and learn more about Kase’s services please visit here.

By Dean Rogers

For several weeks natural gas has been trading within a range bound between $2.65 and $2.95, and more recently between $2.71 and $2.88. On Wednesday natural gas prices closed at the highest level since May 21 at $2.931, and the first class KEES permissions (blue dots) confirm the positive tone. Natural gas futures are now poised to overcome $2.95 and challenge $3.00. This is a confluent projection for the waves up from $2.656 and $2.706.

A close over $3.00 will open the way for an extended upward correction, but keep in mind, this rally may be short lived as the end of summer and its warm weather are rapidly approaching. This upward correction may very well be the last hurrah before the end of summer, and it is going to be a lot easier for longer-term bears to short from $3.00 versus $2.70.

In addition, not only is the market is nearing a past failure point at $2.95, but both the KaseCD and KasePO momentum indicators are setup for bearish divergence. This is a signal that forms when higher price highs are accompanied by lower momentum highs. Bearish divergence is a signal that indicates the move up is exhausted.

Should price turn lower look for support at $2.85 and $2.70. These are the 38 and 62 percent retracements of the move up from $2.706 to $2.934.

By Cynthia Kase

Read on TraderPlanet.com

The big hotel chains recovered from the financial crisis well and until recent months showed steady gains. Diversification, appealing to differing guests, as well as shifting property ownership to partners helped heat the sector. But now, it looks like supply is catching up with demand, and now the sector is cooling off. To evaluate specifics, I’ve chosen to look at Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide Inc. (HOT) this week as a proxy for its peers.

HOT’s been down for four months running, having lost about 14 percent of its value. The first major downside target is $73.0. If that breaks, a freefall to $65 could ensue, but $70, or $67.5 form interim support. These prices are reflected in the retracement tables shown below

Big Hotel Small Chart — Retracements from Lows to $87.99

Since Friday, there’s been a small correction, but HOT declined today, August 11. $78 could be tested, and a close over next resistance at $81 would call for a recovery.

Starwood (HOT) Technical Indicators

Looking at the technicals, Starwood’s monthly chart generated a negative divergence back in April based on the KaseCD. Four down months have followed, but lows have not yet reached Kase’s first stop level at $72.83. The stop is near a key target, centered on $73.

The first wave of a pattern is always the most important. Here that’s 87.99 – 79.53 – 86.96, the 1.62 extension for which is $73. If the pattern extends, look for $65, the trend terminus. This is just above Kase’s second stop at $65.8. The most recent wave is 87.99 – 79.53 – 86.96, and $73 is its equal extension as well as the Phi-squared corrective projection.

Backtracking, July 31 was an aberrant, outside, down day. Prices spiked to $86.96 only make a $77.72 low. $73 and $65 are targeted by this day’s waves.

The last four days through Tuesday for a Harami line with stars. The daily chart is oversold, but not divergent. Prices rose about $1.50 from $75.57, but fell today. The wave up targets $78, which is its equal extension, as well as its Phi corrective projection. The wave also targets $81, using three different calculations. This is the “drop dead” price above which the tone becomes positive, and the highest price to which the small wave projects. These two resistance values are the midpoints for the August (so far) and July monthly candlesticks.

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If I were short above $86, I’d just stay short, perhaps scaling out at $78 and then $81, and exercising caution at the downside targets. Bearish intraday traders might time in here, but watch $73, and use tighter stops. Technically there is little room for optimism, but if you’re long on fundamentals, then monitor the downside targets. Above $81 – you’re “hot”.

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Natural Gas Forecast: Expanding Triangle Bearish

Tag: Price Forecasting

Starwood (HOT) Technical Indicators

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