WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil fell to test the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $64.61 at $69.9 and nearly fulfilled the $69.3 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $78.46. Both targets held on a closing basis and the move up from $69.71 formed a wave that should challenge at least $71.2 and possibly its $72.1 larger than (1.618) target first.

The move up is likely a correction though. The near-term outlook remains bearish and another test of $69.9 and likely $69.3 is expected. Settling below $69.3 will confirm a bearish outlook and strongly suggests that the move up from $64.61 is complete. This will also clear open the way for a test of $67.7 and then the $66.8 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $78.46 in the coming days.

That said, oversold RSI and KasePO PeakOut signals on the $0.65 Kase Bar chart warn that the test of resistance could lead to a bullish reversal. Overcoming $72.1 would call for a test of key near-term resistance at $73.1. A normal correction of the move down will hold $73.1 because this is the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $78.46. Closing above this would shift the near-term odds in favor of challenging $73.9 and possibly the 62 percent retracement at $75.1.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil has been on a wild ride during the past few weeks. Prices rallied and settled above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $82.59 and the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $64.61 on Monday. The November contract also overcame an important $77.45 swing high early Tuesday. These factors were bullish for the outlook and implied that WTI crude oil was adopting a much firmer bullish outlook.

However, Tuesday’s early move up stalled at $78.46, just below the 78 percent retracement from $82.59 and the $78.9 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $64.61. The subsequent move down from $78.46 formed a daily bearish engulfing line and confirmed a daily Stochastic overbought signal. The 38 percent retracement of the rise from $64.61 held on a closing basis, but the bearish engulfing line calls for a deeper test of support tomorrow and warns that a bearish reversal will continue to unfold.

Another test of $73.2 is expected. Settling below this will indicate that the move down from $78.46 is more than just a simple correction of the rise from $64.61. This will also call for a test of the 50 percent retracement and 50-day moving average at $71.6 and possibly the 62 percent retracement at $69.9 in the coming days. Settling below $69.9 will confirm a bearish reversal and call for the $67.9 smaller than (0.618) target of the new wave down from $81.75 to be challenged.

Tuesday’s decline reflects a shift in sentiment, given that the geopolitical factors that had driven prices higher have not led to supply disruptions. Even so, should geopolitical tensions rise again, prices will likely push to challenge $78.9 and higher.

Should WTI crude oil rise tomorrow and overcome the 38 percent retracement from $78.46 at $74.9 look for a test of the 62 percent retracement at $76.3. Settling above $76.3 would indicate that the move down has failed and put the near-term odds back in favor of challenging $77.8 and $78.9 within the next few days.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Today’s rally was bullish for WTI crude oil prices in the coming days. The move up overcame the $71.1 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $64.61. This suggests that this wave will eventually extend to its $74.1 equal to (1.00) target. The pullback from $71.94 also held the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $66.33 at $69.8. Another test of $71.1 is anticipated, a close above which will call for targets at $72.6 and $73.3 that connect to the $74.1 objective.

However, this is a tight call. The move up stalled at the 50-day moving average and near the 89 percent retracement of the decline from $72.4. The $72.1 lower trend line of November’s coil pattern that broke lower on September 3 also held and prices are still trading below the lower trend line of a pennant on the continuation chart that broke lower that same day. The pullback from $71.94 was likely profit-taking but serves as a warning that traders may wait on more information before making the next push higher or lower.

To retain a bullish outlook in the coming days WTI crude oil must close above $71.1 and the lower trend lines of November’s coil ($72.1) and the continuation chart’s pennant ($73.3).

Otherwise, should WTI fall below $69.1 look for a test of key near-term support at $68.2. This is the smaller than target of the wave down from $72.4. Settling below this will imply that the move up has failed again and call for a move back below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $64.61 at $67.6 to fulfill this wave’s $65.9 equal to (1.00) target.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

November WTI crude oil briefly rose above the lower trend line of a coil pattern that broke lower on September 3. Prices settled below this trend line but closed above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $82.59. This target at $71.5 had held on a closing basis for a few days. This was bullish for the outlook and suggests that another test of the coil’s lower trend line at $72.3 will take place tomorrow. There is also a good chance for a test of $72.8, which sits just above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $77.45.

The $72.8 target is most important because this objective is in line with the lower trend line of a wedge pattern on the continuation chart that broke lower during the week ended September 6. A sustained close above $72.8 will confirm that a bullish reversal is underway.

Settling above $72.8 will also call for a test of the $73.6 confirmation point of a weekly long-legged doji on the continuation chart. The $73.6 target is also November’s 50 percent retracement of the decline from $82.59.

That said, should $72.8 continue to hold there is still a modest chance that the move up is a corrective throwback on the continuation chart. In this scenario, settling below the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $64.61 at $69.4 would warn that the move up is failing and put the near-term odds in favor of testing the respective 50 and 62 percent retracements at $68.5 and $67.6.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil has recovered after briefly settling below a highly confluent and key wave projection and retracement level at $66.5 on September 10. The close below $66.5 only lasted a day and the subsequent move up from $65.27 has been quite aggressive. A weekly long-legged doji, daily bullish RSI divergence, and daily Stochastic oversold signal suggest a bullish reversal might be underway. However, the challenge is that the move up might be a throwback to test the lower trend line of a coil pattern on the October chart and wedge pattern on the continuation chart, both of which broke lower on September 3.

CLV24 Daily Chart with Coil

For the move down to extend again WTI crude oil must hold the lower trend lines of these patterns, which currently center around $72.5. The $72.5 is also the highest that the first intra-day wave up from $65.27 projects and sits just above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $83.45. Settling above $72.5 for a few days and extending to close above the 62 percent retracement from $78.54 at $73.5 would imply that the move down is complete.

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Continuation Chart with Wedge

Nevertheless, closing below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $65.27, which is currently $67.8 (and will be $68.0 should prices rise to and hold $72.5), would suggest that the move up from $65.27 was a throwback and a correction of the downtrend. For the near term, key support is the 38 percent retracement at $69.4. Closing below this tomorrow would put the odds in favor of testing $67.8 in the coming days.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil’s move down accelerated again today and settled below a highly confluent and important $66.5 target. The move down is now poised to test $64.6 and then the next major target at $63.7. The $63.7 objective is another bearish decision point because it is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from the $84.32 October contract high and the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $83.45. Once prices fall to $63.7 the daily RSI and KasePO should be oversold. Therefore, $63.7 is a target from which a solid test of resistance could take place. Given the current wave structure, a sustained close below $63.7 would be quite bearish for the coming months because the next major target is $55.9.

The move down is due for a correction but there are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to stall. The small move up at the end of today was likely profit-taking but suggests that a test of $66.7 and possibly today’s $67.4 midpoint might take place first. The $67.4 level is expected to hold. Key resistance for tomorrow is in line with today’s open at $68.8.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil continues to trade in a wide and indecisive range. Prices rallied on Monday and settled above the 78 percent retracement of the decline from $78.54 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $70.88. This suggests that a test of this wave’s $79.1 equal to (1.00) target will take place. Such a move would put WTI above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $82.62, which would also be bullish for the outlook in the coming weeks.

However, today’s close below Monday’s midpoint and the 200-day moving average was bearish for the near term. This move also suggest that prices will remain bound within the wide range between $71.2 and $79.1 while traders wait on more fundamental, macroeconomic, and geopolitical information.

Key near-term support at $75.2 held, but a test of this level is expected early tomorrow. Settling below $75.2 will call for $74.5, $73.8, and possibly a test of the $73.2 smaller than target of the wave down from $78.54 in the coming days. Closing below $73.2 would confirm a bearish outlook and open the way for another attempt to close below a long-term bearish decision point at $71.2.

That said, the pullback from $77.60 might still prove to be a simple correction should $75.2 hold. Overcoming $76.8 will call for a test of key near-term resistance at $77.8. Settling above $77.8 will put the near-term odds back in favor of WTI crude oil rising to challenge $78.7 and likely $79.1.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil settled below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $70.88 and the intermediate (1.382) target of the first wave down from $78.54. This was bearish for the outlook because the close below the 62 percent retracement implies that the move up from $70.88 is a completed correction and has increased the likelihood that a long-term bearish decision point at $71.2 will be tested again.

The 78 percent retracement and larger than (1.618) target around $72.6 were tested and held on a closing basis today. Another test of $72.6 is expected within the next day or so. Closing below $72.6 will call for a minor target at $71.8 that connects to the long-term bearish decision point at $71.2. The $71.2 objective is most important because it is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from the $84.32 October contract high, the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $83.45, the smaller than target of the wave down from $82.62, and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $64.38. A sustained close below $71.2 will open the potential for a decline into the mid-to-low $60s in the coming months.

Nevertheless, the confluence of $72.6 makes this a level from which a test of resistance might take place before the move down extends and tests $71.2. Today’s long upper and lower candlestick shadows also reflect a bit of near-term uncertainty. A further move up from $72.54 will likely be a correction and is expected to hold key near-term resistance at $74.8. Overcoming $74.2 will call for a test of $74.8. Settling above $74.8 would warn that the move down from $78.54 is failing.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil rallied on Monday and overcame the $78.88 swing high and settled above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $83.58 and the bullish threshold of the daily Kase Trend indicator. This was bullish for the outlook of WTI crude oil in the coming weeks. However, the $80.2 XC (2.764) projection of the first wave up from $71.67 held and a small intra-day double top formed around $80.16. The double top was confirmed and prices settled below the pattern’s $78.5 target, Monday’s midpoint, and the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $71.67 on Tuesday.

The pullback from $80.16 is likely a correction. However, the wave down from $80.16 is poised to test its $77.8 XC (2.764) projection early Wednesday. Falling below $77.8 will call for a test of key support at $76.9. This is in line with Monday’s open and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $71.67. Based on the current wave formation down from $80.16, settling below $76.9 is doubtful. Such a move would warn that the move up is failing again.

Should $77.8 hold and prices rise above Tuesday’s $79.0 midpoint, which is also currently the 38 percent retracement from $80.16, look for another test of $80.2. Closing above $80.2 will confirm a bullish outlook for the coming days and clear the way for the $81.1 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $69.16 to be challenged.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

The outlook for WTI crude oil is bearish for the coming weeks. The September contract settled below the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $84.36 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $72.23 on Monday. This implies that the move up from $72.23 is complete and the wave down from $84.36 now favors an eventual test of its $71.5 equal to (1.00) target.

Today, prices fell to challenge the $74.7 smaller than target of the wave down from $82.27 and the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $72.23. The $74.7 target held on a closing basis, so there is a modest chance for a test of resistance tomorrow. However, there are no bullish patterns or confirmed technical signals that call for a reversal. Therefore, near-term odds favor a test of $74.3, a close below which will call for $73.7, $73.2, and the next confluent target at $72.3 in the coming days.

Should prices rise tomorrow look for initial resistance at $75.5 and then $76.0. The $76.0 level is expected to hold. Key resistance for the near term is $76.6. This threshold is in line with the 21 percent retracement from $83.58 and the 200-day moving average. Settling above $76.6 would shift the near-term odds in favor of WTI crude oil rising to challenge $77.0 and higher.