Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast – June 16, 2026

Author: Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the President of Kase and Company, Inc. He oversees all of Kase's operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2000 as a programmer but developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst and became President of the company in January 2024. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast is a much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. Daily updates are included. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Brent crude oil continued to decline and took out the $81.45 swing low today. Prices also settled below the larger than (1.618) target of the waves down from $108.34 and $98.99 and the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $108.04. The 89 percent retracement from $75.06 held, but the wave formation calls for a continued decline. Tomorrow, look for a test of the 62 percent retracement from $58.76 at $77.7 and possibly the $75.9 target of the confirmed double top that formed between the $108.34 and $108.04 swing highs. Settling below $75.9 might initially be a challenge, but this will open the way for $74.1 and lower.

The daily Stochastic is oversold, and the RSI is nearing oversold territory. The move down is due for a corrective bounce, but there are currently no bullish patterns or confirmed signals that call for such a move. Even so, should prices rise, look for today’s $81.5 midpoint to hold. Key near-term resistance is today’s $83.8 open. Settling above this would put the near-term odds in favor of a more substantial correction before the move down extends.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

July natural gas tested the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $3.396 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.893 at $3.08 before rallying and recapturing the 20-day moving average. The move up stalled at the 50 percent retracement from $3.396 and held the 38 percent retracement on a closing basis. Even so, prices have failed to close below the 50-day moving average for the past few days, and holding $3.08 on a closing basis implies that prices will continue to trade in a range between approximately $3.08 and $3.40 as discussed in our weekly Commentary.

The near-term outlook remains tight, but the odds now lean in favor of testing $3.23 again. Overcoming this will call for the 62 percent retracement from $3.396 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $3.072 at $3.28. Settling above $3.28 will clear the way for $3.34 and possibly another test and attempt to close above key resistance at $3.40 in the coming days.

Nevertheless, the pullback from $3.249 shows the potential to test the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $3.072 at $3.14 first. Falling below $3.14 would suggest that today’s rise was the corrective leg of a wave down from $3.376 that projects to $3.07 as the smaller than target. Closing below $3.07 will shift the near-term odds back in favor of a decline to challenge $3.00 and likely $2.96 instead.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast is a much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. Daily updates are included. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil took out the $86.35 and $86.13 swing lows but stalled at $85.95 before bouncing at the end of the day. The 38 percent retracement of the rise from $55.27 at $86.1 was held on a closing basis. Even so, prices settled below the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $97.0 and sustained a close below the 50-day moving average.

The outlook remains bearish, and falling below $86.4 will clear the way for a test of the $85.4 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $97.0. This is also the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $105.21. Settling below $85.4 will confirm a bearish outlook because the wave down from $105.21 connects to $78.1 as the equal to target.

That said, the $86.4 target has been a strong area of support, and the late bounce warns that another test of resistance might occur. Look for initial resistance at $90.1 and key near-term resistance at $91.9. The $91.9 level is the 50-day moving average. Settling back above $91.9 will put the near-term odds in favor of a more significant test of resistance in the coming days.

Silver Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are detailed and thorough price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and metals ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Silver’s move down from $90.105 remains hesitant. Even so, prices held below the 50-day moving average on a closing basis again. The outlook continues to lean in favor of a decline to challenge the 62 percent retracement from $61.660 at $72.53. Taking out $74.93 will clear the way for a test of $72.53, a close below which will open the way for $69.31 and then the $67.93 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $97.545.

That said, there is still a reasonable chance for a larger correction to test the 20-day moving average at $78.19 and possibly key near-term resistance at $79.75. Settling above $79.75, which is the 38 percent retracement from $90.105, would warn that the move down is failing and call for a push to challenge $81.80 and then the 62 percent retracement and the smaller than target of the wave up from $71.310 around $84.38.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas rose to $3.138 but stalled just below a confluent $3.16 threshold that is in line with the larger than (1.618) target of the waves up from $2.592 and $2.798 and the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $2.676. The 100-day moving average also held. The pullback from $3.138 settled below the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $2.592 and confirmed a daily bearish KaseCD momentum divergence. The bounce from $2.985 held the 62 percent retracement from $3.138 at $3.08, and prices are falling again. Therefore, there is also the potential for a head and shoulders pattern on the $0.035 Kase Bar chart. This reversal pattern would be confirmed by a close below $2.98.

Because of these bearish technical factors, the outlook for natural gas tomorrow is bearish. A test of the $2.98 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $3.138 is expected. Closing below this will confirm the head and shoulders, calling for a test of this wave’s equal to (1.00) target, the 38 percent retracement from $2.592, and the 50-day moving average at $2.93. Settling below $2.93 will warn that the move up is failing and call for $2.87 and $2.83. The $2.83 objective is in line with the target of the head and shoulders.

Nevertheless, all significant swing lows that formed during the rise from $2.592 have held, and the daily trend indicators are bullish. The wave formation also still favors a test of $3.16. This suggests that the pullback from $3.138 is another correction. Overcoming $3.08 will call for another attempt to fulfill and close above the key $3.16 resistance level. This has become doubtful, but settling above $3.16 will put the near-term odds in favor of natural gas rising to $3.20 and $3.24 in the coming days.

Diesel Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast is a much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. Daily updates are included. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

June diesel rose to test and hold the 89 percent retracement of the decline from $4.2549, the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $3.5825, and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $3.8664 at $4.18 on a closing basis again. This has been a strong level of resistance for the past week, and there is potential for a triple top around $4.18 to form. Even so, prices settled just below this area, and prices are challenging $4.18 late this afternoon. The outlook for the next few days remains bullish, and a move above $4.18 to test the $4.237 smaller than target of the wave up from $3.1701 and the primary wave up from $3.5538 is favored. Closing above this will clear the way for a new contract high of at least $4.317 and likely $4.424 in the coming days.

Nevertheless, the 10-day DMI and ADX and the daily Kase Trend indicator are neutral. Moreover, the potential formation of a triple top warns that another test of support and more range-bound trading might occur instead. Diesel must settle below $3.866 to confirm the triple top. This is currently doubtful, but taking out $4.049 and settling below $3.942 will clear the way for a test of $3.866. Closing below $3.866 will confirm the triple top and call for a move to take out the $3.748 smaller than target of the wave down from $4.2549 to reach the triple top’s $3.564 target. Note that this is a key threshold that is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $3.1701 that held on a closing basis when prices fell to the $3.5538 swing low.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

June natural gas rose to test and hold the 89 percent retracement of the decline from $2.945 at $2.93 before pulling back to challenge the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.804 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.945 at $2.840 today.

Testing $2.84 warns that a deeper test of support might occur tomorrow. However, the prior swing lows that formed during the rise from $2.592 have been held, and the primary wave up from $2.592 still favors a test of its $2.97 equal to (1.00) target. This is the most confluent objective on the charts because it is also a projection of the waves up from $2.676, $2.735, and $2.804. Therefore, the near-term outlook continues to lean bullish. Overcoming $2.89 will call for a test of the $2.92 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2.804, which then connects to $2.97 as the equal to target. Settling above $2.970 will likely be a challenge given its confluence, but this would open the way for $3.01 and higher.

Nevertheless, natural gas settled just above $2.84, and the bounce since falling to $2.845 has been minimal. Therefore, there is a reasonable chance for prices to fall below $2.84 early tomorrow. This would call for another attempt to take out the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.592 at $2.81 to reach the 50 percent retracement and the equal to target of the wave down from $2.945 at $2.78. Taking out $2.78 would call for key support at $2.73 to be challenged. This level is key because it is the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $2.945, the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.592, and is in line with the last major swing low of the rise from $2.592 at $2.735. Settling below $2.73 would imply that the move up from $2.592 is complete.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast is a much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. Daily updates are included. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

July Brent crude oil has continued to work its way higher after fulfilling and holding the $97.0 target of a confirmed $115.0 double top, the 50 percent retracement from $76.82, the 62 percent retracement from $83.44, and the 20-day moving average on a closing basis last week. Prices settled above the equal to (1.00) projection of the intraday wave up from $96.03 today, but also held the 62 percent retracement from $115.30 at $107.9 on a closing basis. This is a potential stalling point, and the 10-day DMI and ADX continue to reflect a neutral range. Even so, there are no bearish patterns or signals that call for the move up to stall. Additionally, settling above the $107.4 equal to target of the wave up from $96.03 indicates that a test of this wave’s $110.7 intermediate (1.382) target and possibly the $112.5 larger than (1.618) target will occur within the next few days. Settling above $112.5 will call for a test of the $115.7 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $83.44, a close above which will confirm a continued rise for July Brent crude oil.

Nevertheless, because the 62 percent retracement from $115.30 at $107.9 held on a closing basis, there is still a modest chance for a deeper test of support or for prices to at least consolidate. However, prices must settle below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $96.03 and the 20-day moving average around $101.0 to put the near-term odds in favor of challenging a bearish decision point at $96.5. The $96.5 level is the smaller than target of the current wave down from $115.30 and will be in line with the crucial 50-day moving average within the next few days.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are detailed and thorough price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and metals ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold’s follow-through after yesterday’s confirmation of a daily bullish Harami was lackluster. The 62 percent retracement from $4917.7 at $4762 and the 20-day moving average held on a closing basis. This warns that the move up from $4510.1 is the corrective leg of a wave down from $4917.7.

For now, the near-term outlook leans bullish given the confirmed Harami and the fact that the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $4128.5 at $4523 has held. Overcoming $4762 again will call for a test of $4816, which is in line with the 50- and 100-day moving averages. Settling above this will clear the way for another attempt to close above the highly confluent $4889 objective.

Nevertheless, this is a tight call for the near-term given today’s lackluster rise. Look for initial support at $4674 and then $4611. Taking out $4611, which is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $4510.1, would call for another attempt to close below $4523, which is now the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $4917.7. Settling below $4523 will put the near-term odds in favor of gold falling to $4430 and likely this wave’s $4368 equal to (1.00) target.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas took out the $2.746 swing low and invalidated all the prior waves up from $2.592 that had called for a continued rise. The 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.592 at $2.70 and the $2.69 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.905 held on a closing basis. Another test of $2.69 is favored, a close below which will imply that the corrective move up from $2.592 is complete. This will open the way for the $2.66 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.868. This wave connects to $2.58 as the equal to (1.00) target. This is also the equal to target of the wave down from $2.905. Therefore, settling below $2.69 and then $2.66 will clear the way for a move below the confluent $2.62 target that was tested and held on a closing basis when prices fell to $2.592.

Nevertheless, because $2.69 held on a closing basis, there is still a modest chance for a continued rise. However, prices would have to close above $2.81 to put the near-term odds in favor of testing the $2.870 smaller than (0.618) target of the new primary wave up from $2.592. Settling above $2.87 will call for a test of this wave’s $2.98 equal to target.