WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast
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August WTI crude oil held above the 100-day moving average and rose to test the $66.0 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $64.0. The $66.0 level held. However, prices now have a slightly better chance of rising to challenge this wave’s $66.9 equal to (1.00) target versus falling to challenge the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $54.13 at $63.4. Closing above $66.9 will open the way for a test of the $67.7 intermediate (1.382) target, which, more importantly, is in line with the confirmation point of daily bullish candlesticks that formed last week and on Monday. Upon a close above $67.7, look for a larger test of resistance with targets at $68.5 and then $69.5. A normal correction of the decline from $78.40 will hold $69.5.
Nevertheless, this is still a tight call for the next few days because $66.0 and the midpoint of last Tuesday have held. Taking out the $64.5 swing low will invalidate the wave up from $64.0 and call for another attempt to test major support at $63.4. The $63.4 level is key because it is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $54.13 and the top of the range that the August contract had traded in between early April and late May.
