Gold Price Forecast – October 10, 2024

Tag: Price Forecasting

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rose to challenge the 20-day moving average after settling below a confluent and important target at $2632 on Wednesday. The wave down from $2708.7 still favors a test of its $2607 intermediate (1.382) target and possibly the $2594 larger than (1.618) target in the coming days. Taking out $2630 tomorrow will clear the way for a test of at least $2607.

Nevertheless, today’s bullish piercing pattern warns that the corrective move down might be complete. Given this afternoon’s post-settlement rise, there is also a good chance for a test of the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2708.7 at $2653 first. A normal correction will hold $2563. Overcoming this would call for a test of key resistance and the 62 percent retracement at $2674. Settling above $2674 would imply that the corrective move down is complete and put the near-term odds in favor of testing $2700 again.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

November natural gas closed below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.439 and the 50-day moving average today. This strongly suggests that November’s move up from $2.439 is complete. The move down is now poised to test a confluent but relatively minor target at $2.61 and then an important objective at $2.58. The $2.58 target is in line with the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $2.439 and is the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $1.856 on the continuation chart. A normal correction of the move up from $1.856 on the continuation chart will hold $2.58. Settling below this will clear the way for tests of $2.52 and $2.46 in the coming days.

There are no bullish patterns, signals, or setups that call for the move down to stall. Even so, should prices rise tomorrow look for resistance at today’s $2.68 midpoint and the $2.71 open. Key resistance for the near-term outlook is the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $3.019 at $2.78.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil has been on a wild ride during the past few weeks. Prices rallied and settled above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $82.59 and the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $64.61 on Monday. The November contract also overcame an important $77.45 swing high early Tuesday. These factors were bullish for the outlook and implied that WTI crude oil was adopting a much firmer bullish outlook.

However, Tuesday’s early move up stalled at $78.46, just below the 78 percent retracement from $82.59 and the $78.9 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $64.61. The subsequent move down from $78.46 formed a daily bearish engulfing line and confirmed a daily Stochastic overbought signal. The 38 percent retracement of the rise from $64.61 held on a closing basis, but the bearish engulfing line calls for a deeper test of support tomorrow and warns that a bearish reversal will continue to unfold.

Another test of $73.2 is expected. Settling below this will indicate that the move down from $78.46 is more than just a simple correction of the rise from $64.61. This will also call for a test of the 50 percent retracement and 50-day moving average at $71.6 and possibly the 62 percent retracement at $69.9 in the coming days. Settling below $69.9 will confirm a bearish reversal and call for the $67.9 smaller than (0.618) target of the new wave down from $81.75 to be challenged.

Tuesday’s decline reflects a shift in sentiment, given that the geopolitical factors that had driven prices higher have not led to supply disruptions. Even so, should geopolitical tensions rise again, prices will likely push to challenge $78.9 and higher.

Should WTI crude oil rise tomorrow and overcome the 38 percent retracement from $78.46 at $74.9 look for a test of the 62 percent retracement at $76.3. Settling above $76.3 would indicate that the move down has failed and put the near-term odds back in favor of challenging $77.8 and $78.9 within the next few days.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December gold’s pullback from $2708.7 confirmed a daily RSI overbought signal. However, the pullback stalled before testing the $2656 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2708.7 today. This is a tight call for the near term, but odds lean in favor of testing the $2702 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $2349.8 again. Settling above this will call for $2720 and likely $2732.

Nevertheless, the uptrend is due for a more significant correction based on the RSI overbought signal. However, unless gold takes out $2656 and settles below the $2632 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2708.7 the move down from $2708.7 will likely be another short-lived correction. Closing below $2632 will put the near-term odds in favor of a more substantial test of support with thresholds at $2607 and $2594.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas rose to challenge the psychologically important $3.00 level today. This is also a confluent wave projection and retracement level on the November chart that sits just above the 200-day moving average. The outlook for natural gas is bullish and closing above $3.00 will call for $3.05, $3.12, and eventually the $3.20 target of a confirmed double bottom.

That said, this is a tight call for the next few days. The move up is due for a correction and $3.00 is the most probable point from which such a move will take place. Monday’s evening star setup, Tuesday’s long-legged doji, and today’s shooting star also warn that a correction will take place before the move up extends. Settling below $2.83 will complete these patterns and call for a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.439 at $2.79. A simple correction will hold $2.79. Settling below this will call for the $2.75 confirmation point of the bearish daily candlesticks to be challenged. Closing below $2.75 is doubtful but would suggest that a bearish reversal and much more significant test of support is underway.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Today’s rally was bullish for WTI crude oil prices in the coming days. The move up overcame the $71.1 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $64.61. This suggests that this wave will eventually extend to its $74.1 equal to (1.00) target. The pullback from $71.94 also held the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $66.33 at $69.8. Another test of $71.1 is anticipated, a close above which will call for targets at $72.6 and $73.3 that connect to the $74.1 objective.

However, this is a tight call. The move up stalled at the 50-day moving average and near the 89 percent retracement of the decline from $72.4. The $72.1 lower trend line of November’s coil pattern that broke lower on September 3 also held and prices are still trading below the lower trend line of a pennant on the continuation chart that broke lower that same day. The pullback from $71.94 was likely profit-taking but serves as a warning that traders may wait on more information before making the next push higher or lower.

To retain a bullish outlook in the coming days WTI crude oil must close above $71.1 and the lower trend lines of November’s coil ($72.1) and the continuation chart’s pennant ($73.3).

Otherwise, should WTI fall below $69.1 look for a test of key near-term support at $68.2. This is the smaller than target of the wave down from $72.4. Settling below this will imply that the move up has failed again and call for a move back below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $64.61 at $67.6 to fulfill this wave’s $65.9 equal to (1.00) target.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

November WTI crude oil briefly rose above the lower trend line of a coil pattern that broke lower on September 3. Prices settled below this trend line but closed above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $82.59. This target at $71.5 had held on a closing basis for a few days. This was bullish for the outlook and suggests that another test of the coil’s lower trend line at $72.3 will take place tomorrow. There is also a good chance for a test of $72.8, which sits just above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $77.45.

The $72.8 target is most important because this objective is in line with the lower trend line of a wedge pattern on the continuation chart that broke lower during the week ended September 6. A sustained close above $72.8 will confirm that a bullish reversal is underway.

Settling above $72.8 will also call for a test of the $73.6 confirmation point of a weekly long-legged doji on the continuation chart. The $73.6 target is also November’s 50 percent retracement of the decline from $82.59.

That said, should $72.8 continue to hold there is still a modest chance that the move up is a corrective throwback on the continuation chart. In this scenario, settling below the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $64.61 at $69.4 would warn that the move up is failing and put the near-term odds in favor of testing the respective 50 and 62 percent retracements at $68.5 and $67.6.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil has recovered after briefly settling below a highly confluent and key wave projection and retracement level at $66.5 on September 10. The close below $66.5 only lasted a day and the subsequent move up from $65.27 has been quite aggressive. A weekly long-legged doji, daily bullish RSI divergence, and daily Stochastic oversold signal suggest a bullish reversal might be underway. However, the challenge is that the move up might be a throwback to test the lower trend line of a coil pattern on the October chart and wedge pattern on the continuation chart, both of which broke lower on September 3.

CLV24 Daily Chart with Coil

For the move down to extend again WTI crude oil must hold the lower trend lines of these patterns, which currently center around $72.5. The $72.5 is also the highest that the first intra-day wave up from $65.27 projects and sits just above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $83.45. Settling above $72.5 for a few days and extending to close above the 62 percent retracement from $78.54 at $73.5 would imply that the move down is complete.

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Continuation Chart with Wedge

Nevertheless, closing below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $65.27, which is currently $67.8 (and will be $68.0 should prices rise to and hold $72.5), would suggest that the move up from $65.27 was a throwback and a correction of the downtrend. For the near term, key support is the 38 percent retracement at $69.4. Closing below this tomorrow would put the odds in favor of testing $67.8 in the coming days.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December gold finally broke higher out of a bullish wedge after forming a shortfall within the pattern last Friday. Gold also settled above an important area of resistance between $2565 and $2570. The $2586 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2349.8 was also tested and held on a closing basis. Even so, today’s break higher out of the wedge was bullish for the outlook in the coming days and weeks.

The move up is now poised to reach another confluent objective at $2605. This is the most confluent target on the chart and might prove to be a temporary stalling point. Closing above $2605 will clear the way for a push to $2630 and higher.

Should a throwback occur after testing and holding $2586 look for the upper trend line of the wedge at $2554 to hold. A throwback to test the breakout point of a bullish pattern is somewhat common. Taking out $2554 would warn of a false breakout. Settling below $2535 would confirm this is the case and put the near-term odds in favor of testing $2521 and $2497 in the coming days.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas has entered a period of consolidation in recent weeks that will likely lead to an eventual break higher. Today, the prompt month October contract tested and held a key level at $2.30 on a closing basis. This sits just above the smaller than (0.618) target of the waves up from $1.991 and $2.021 and is in line with the $2.301 confirmation point of a $1.856 double bottom on the continuation chart. Another test of $2.30 is anticipated within the next couple of days. Settling above $2.30 will open the way for a push to challenge $2.39 and likely $2.46.

Nevertheless, resistance around $2.30 has been resilient for the past few days. The late pullback from today’s $2.325 high warns that natural gas will continue to consolidate as traders wait for more evidence of bullish fundamentals and sentiment. A simple test of support should hold the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.021 at $2.21. Falling below this will call for an attempt to take out key near-term support and the 62 percent retracement at $2.14. Settling below $2.14 would put the near-term odds in favor of testing the $2.08 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.421.