Natural Gas Price Forecast – February 12, 2025

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas rose to challenge a highly confluent and key objective at $3.58 again today. Most importantly, this is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2.990. Settling above $3.58 will confirm a bullish shift in sentiment and open the way for a test of this wave’s $3.74 intermediate (1.382) target. Tomorrow, look for a test of $3.61. Settling above this will call for $3.64 and $3.69, which then make a connection to the $3.74 objective.

That said, the challenge for tomorrow’s outlook is that natural gas is struggling to settle above $3.58. Moreover, there is potential for a small double top at $3.58 which would be confirmed below $3.46. Taking out $3.50 would call for a test of $3.46, a close below which will shift the near-term odds in favor of natural gas falling to $3.42 and then the $3.36 target of the potential double top.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil rose as called for today and settled just below the $73.4 target. This is the highest that the wave up from $70.43 projects and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $75.18. The outlook remains bullish for tomorrow and a test of the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $79.39 at $73.9 is expected. Settling above this will warn that a bullish reversal is underway.

However, the wave formation up from $70.43 is due for a correction given $73.4 is the highest that the wave up from $70.43 projects. A bearish KaseCD divergence and KasePO PeakOut (overbought signal) were also confirmed on the $0.35 Kase Bar chart at the $73.68 swing high. Therefore, there is a good chance for a test of support first.

Should WTI crude oil take out the $72.9 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $73.68 look for a test of $72.5. This is the equal to (1.00) target, the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $70.43, and is in line with today’s open. A simple correction of the move up from $70.43 should hold $72.5. Falling below $72.5 will call for a test of key near-term support at $72.1. This is the larger than (1.618) target and 50 percent retracement.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

The longer-term outlook for gold is bullish after settling above the $2867 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2392.4 on February 4. This wave calls for an eventual test of its $3041 equal to (1.00) target. However, the move up has been due for a correction and today’s move down confirmed a daily bearish MACD divergence and an overbought daily RSI signal. The daily KasePO is also overbought and a daily hanging man formed. The hanging man would be confirmed upon a close below $2854, which should also confirm the KasePO overbought signal.

This is a tight call for the near-term but the outlook for tomorrow lean bearish. Another test of $2854 is expected, a close below which will call for $2840. A minimal correction will hold $2840 because this is the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $2586.7. Settling below $2840 will call for an extended correction to challenge $2814 and then the 38 percent retracement at $2784.

Nevertheless, the MACD divergence, RSI overbought signal, and hanging may fail to lead to a deeper test of support. This is because the equal to (1.00) target of the intra-day wave down from $2906 held and prices have already retraced just over 50 percent of the decline from $2906. Overcoming the $2894 intra-day swing high will invalidate the wave down from $2906 and call for a test of $2914. Settling above $2914 will call for the test of another major target and potential stalling point at $2931.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas tested and held support at $3.16 before rising to challenge the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $3.778 at $3.38 again. Today’s rise was bullish for the outlook during the next few days. March natural gas is now poised to overcome $3.38 to challenge the $3.42 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2.990. Settling above this will call for a push above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.778 at $3.48 to fulfill the $3.59 equal to (1.00) target of this wave.

The $3.38 target held on Monday and the move up from $3.161 is due for a correction soon. Should prices pull back look for the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $3.161 at $3.29 to hold. Falling below this will call for a test of key near-term support at $3.23. This threshold is split between the 62 percent retracement and smaller than target of the wave down from $3.407.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

March WTI crude oil fell to test the $70.6 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $79.39 at $70.6. Prices stalled just above this important objective at $70.67 and then bounced to test and hold the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $75.18 at $73.5. Today’s long-legged doji and the failure to close below the 200-day moving average at $72.1 and the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $63.65 and the 50-day moving average at $71.5 reflects uncertainty.

Even so, the near-term outlook continues to lean bearish heading into tomorrow. Taking out $71.6 will call for another test of $70.6, a close below which will call for $70.1, and then a test of a long-term bearish decision point at $69.6.

However, the intra-day pullback from $73.35 may be forming a bullish flag. Falling below $72.1 will negate the pattern. Otherwise, settling above $73.5 will confirm a break higher and call for a push to test $74.1 and then key near-term resistance at $75.2. The $75.2 level is in line with the $75.18 corrective swing high of the primary wave down from $79.39. Overcoming $75.2 will invalidate this wave and shift the near-term odds in favor of testing the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $79.39 at $76.1.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rallied today and finally settled above the $2795 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2565 and fulfilled the $2825 target. The $2826.3 swing high was overcome but there is potential for a double top with today’s $2829.5 high. Nonetheless, it is doubtful that the double top will form because the wave formation calls for a test of a minor target at $2835 and then the next major target at $2849. The $2849 objective is highly confluent, and, most importantly, is in line with the smaller than (0.618) target of the largest wave up from $2372.6.

Aside from the potential for a double top, there are no other bearish patterns or signals that call for the move up to stall. Even so, after such a large single day move up a test of support might take place first. Today’s $2798 midpoint is expected to hold. Key support for the near term is today’s $2773 open and the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $2565. Settling below $2773 before prices rise any higher would indicate that a double top has formed and call for an extended test of support in the coming days.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

March natural gas tested and held the 200-day moving average around $3.07 again today and rose to test Tuesday’s $3.19 midpoint. The midpoint held on a closing basis, preventing the formation of a daily bullish piercing pattern. Today’s rise warns that a larger test of resistance might take place tomorrow but the near-term outlook continues to lean bearish.

Taking out $3.11 will call for another test of $3.07, a close below which will call for the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.522 at $3.00 to be challenged. Such a move would also clear the way for an eventual test of the $2.95 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $3.778. Settling below $2.95 would imply the move up is complete and that a bearish reversal will continue to unfold.

Nevertheless, the intra-day wave up from $3.062 shows potential to test its $3.21 equal to (1.00) target first. Overcoming $3.21 will call for $3.26, a move above which will call for key near-term resistance and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $3.778 at $3.34 to be challenged.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

March WTI crude oil rose to test resistance today but failed to close above the 21 percent retracement of the decline from $79.39 and Monday’s midpoint. The decline from $79.39 has been due for a test of resistance that will form the corrective leg of a primary wave that can continue to drive prices lower. The rise from $72.38 is likely that move.

Given today’s rise is probably a correction, the outlook for the coming days remains bearish. Taking out $72.6 will call for a test of the 200-day moving average at $72.2 and then the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $63.65 at $71.5.

Nevertheless, there is a reasonable chance for the corrective move up from $72.38 to extend first. Overcoming $74.1 early tomorrow will call for a test of Monday’s open and the 20-day moving average at $74.5. This connects to the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $79.39 at $75.1. A normal correction will hold $75.1. Closing above this will warn that the move down is failing and shift the near-term odds in favor of WTI crude oil rising to $76.0 and possibly $76.7 within the next few days.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rose today and finally settled above the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $2761.3, the 50-day moving average, and the intermediate (1.382) target of the primary wave up from $2596.7. Tomorrow, look for a test of this wave’s $2704 larger than (1.618) target. Settling above $2704 will call for a test of a $2721 bullish decision point that is in line with the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2565. Closing above $2721 should initially be a challenge given this target’s confluence and importance but will confirm a bullish outlook for gold and open the way for $2741, $2771, and then a test of the $2795 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2565.

Nevertheless, the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2608.4 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2761.3 were tested and held today. Prices settled just below this level around $2698, but there are no bearish patterns or signals that call for the move up to stall. Even so, $2698 is a potential stalling point. Should prices pull back look for the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2596.7 at $2659 to hold. Closing below this would call for a test of key near-term support and the 62 percent retracement at $2635.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Volatility remains high for natural gas. Prices failed to test key near-term support at $3.39 today and instead rose to challenge the $3.68 smaller than target of the wave up from $3.330. The $3.68 target held on a closing basis, but today’s close above Tuesday’s midpoint and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.738 implies that the move up will probably extend to at least $3.77 and then fulfill the $3.85 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $3.330 within the next few days. The $3.85 target is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $4.201. Settling above this will strongly suggest that the corrective move down is complete.

Trading has been erratic for the past few days so caution is warranted. Should prices fell below $3.52 look for another attempt to take out key near-term support at $3.39. This level is in line with a few projections of the intra-day waves down from $4.201 and is the equal to target of the wave down from $3.738. It also aligns with the 20- and 200-day moving averages. Closing below $3.39 will clear the way for a test of $3.28 and possibly $3.20.