Gold Price Forecast – July 25, 2024

Tag: Technical Analysis

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold settled below the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $2488.4 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2304.2 today. Today’s move down also caused the daily Kase Trend indicator to become bearish and for the 10-day DMI to trigger a bearish crossover. Daily bearish KasePO and RSI divergences were also confirmed at the $2488.4 swing high and there has been good follow-through after last week’s formation of a shooting star.

The move down is now poised to reach the $2328 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2488.4. Settling below this will call for another test of the $2304 level, a close below which would call for the $2290 intermediate (1.382) target and eventually the $2263 larger than (1.618) target. The $2263 objective is also a major retracement of the moves up from $1900.1 and $2306.

There are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to stall before reaching $2328. Nonetheless, should gold rise tomorrow look for initial resistance at $2372 to hold. Overcoming this would call for key near-term resistance and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2488.4 at $2402 to be challenged.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas rose to challenge the 21 percent retracement of the decline from $3.221 at $2.27 before stalling and pulling back for the past couple of days. The move down from $2.270 challenged but settled above the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.015 at $2.11 today.

This is a tight call for the near term because daily trend indicators remain bearish, the downtrend is intact, and the wave formation calls for a test of $1.97 and lower. However, daily bullish KaseCD and MACD divergences confirmed at the $2.015 swing low and the fact that $2.11 held on a closing basis warn that a larger test of resistance might still take place in the coming days.

Given the close above $2.11 was nominal, prices held the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2.270 at $2.17, and natural gas is falling back toward $2.11 late this afternoon the near-term outlook leans bearish. A test of the $2.06 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.270 is expected. Closing below this will call for a test of the $2.00 equal to (1.00) target and then the next major objective at $1.97.

That said, should prices rally again and overcome $2.17 look for a test of $2.21 and possibly key near-term resistance at $2.26. The $2.26 level is the smaller than target of the wave up from $2.015. Settling above $2.26 will call for natural gas to rise and test at least this wave’s $2.36 equal to target.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil fell to challenge the 200-day moving average and 62 percent retracement of the rise from $72.23. This support at $76.6 held on a closing basis, but the subsequent move up from $76.40 is likely a simple correction. Another test of $76.6 is anticipated. Taking out $76.6 will call for a test of the $76.1 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $84.36. Settling below $76.1 will confirm a bearish outlook for the coming days, and likely the next few weeks, opening the way for $75.2 and lower.

There are no bullish patterns or signals on the daily chart that call for a reversal. The $76.6 and $76.1 targets are crucial though and this is an area where the move down could stall. Should WTI crude oil overcome initial resistance at $77.7 look for a test of $78.6 and possibly key near-term resistance at $79.1. The $79.1 level is the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $83.58. Therefore, settling above this would warn that the move down is failing.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

The longer-term outlook for gold is bullish after the August contract overcame the $2477 swing high. However, resistance at $2490 has held and the pullback from $2488 will likely test $2421 tomorrow. A normal correction of the move up from $2304.2 should hold $2421 because this is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $2488.4 and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2304.2. Settling below $2421 would call for an extended test of support with objectives at $2392 and $2375.

Nevertheless, the trend remains bullish and the pullback from $2488.4 will likely prove to be a correction. Overcoming the $2478.5 swing high will invalidate the wave down from $2488.4 that projects to $2421 and $2392. This will also call for another attempt to overcome key near-term resistance at $2490.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas has continued to decline toward the psychologically important $2.00 level as called for. Today’s decline reflects a resurgence in bearish sentiment. The $2.03 larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $2.448 held, but the larger and more important waves down from $3.590 and $3.221 call for a continued decline.

Tomorrow, look for a test of the $2.00 target of a confirmed $3.21 double top and likely the $1.97 XC (2.764) projection of the first wave down from $3.221. This is also the smaller than target of the wave down from $3.027. The $1.97 objective is a potential stalling point. However, any move will likely be a correction because the wave down from $3.590 favors an eventual test of its $1.84 equal to (1.00) target.

The daily Stochastic has been oversold for a few weeks and the RSI entered oversold territory today. A test of resistance will probably take place soon, but no bullish patterns or confirmed signals call for such a move. Even so, should prices rise before taking out $2.00 look for initial resistance at today’s $2.11 midpoint. Overcoming this would call for a test of key near-term resistance at today’s $2.18 open.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil settled below the $81.4 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $84.52 and the 20-day moving average today. The move down is likely a correction but is now poised to test at least $80.0. This is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $84.52 and 38 percent retracement of the rise from $72.44. A normal correction will hold $80.0, so settling below this objective may prove to be a challenge. Nonetheless, a sustained close below $80.0 will open the way for $79.5, $79.1, and then another major target at $78.6.

There are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to fail before reaching $80.0. Even so, the move up from today’s $80.22 low could extend to test today’s $81.3 midpoint first. This level will likely hold. Overcoming $81.3 would call for WTI crude oil to test of key near-term resistance at $81.9. This is in line with today’s open and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $84.52. Settling above $81.9 would warn that the move down is failing and shift the near-term odds in favor of WTI crude oil rising to challenge $82.4 and possibly the 62 percent retracement at $82.9.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

August gold settled above the crucial $2412 objective today. This was in line with the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $2304.2 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2477. Settling above $2412 implies that the corrective move down from $2477 is complete.

The $2431 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $2304.2 and equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2327.4 held, but another test of this objective is expected. Settling above $2431 will call for a test of another highly confluent and key objective at $2458. The $2458 target is in line with the target of a confirmed $2304 double bottom, the 89 percent retracement from $2477, and projections of the waves up from $2304.2, $2304.7, $2327.4, and $2356. A test of support is anticipated before sustaining a close above $2458.

Nonetheless, because $2431 held today there is a reasonable chance for a test of $2402 first. This level is expected to hold because it is in line with the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $2304.2 and today’s midpoint. Taking out $2402 would call for a test of key near-term support at $2380.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

August natural gas fell to test the $2.31 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.448 as called for. This objective held, but most waves that meet the smaller than target extend to fulfill at least the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $2.26. Therefore, the outlook for natural gas is bearish and a test of $2.26 is expected tomorrow. Closing below $2.26 will call for the $2.21 and $2.18 intermediate (1.382) and larger than (1.618) targets to be challenged in the coming days.

Because the $2.268 swing low held, the move up from that level might still prove to be a period of consolidation before a larger test of resistance takes place. Should natural gas overcome the 38 percent retracement from $2.448 at $2.35 early tomorrow look for a test of the $2.40 smaller than target of the wave up from $2.268. Overcoming this would call for key near-term resistance at $2.47 to be challenged. Settling above $2.47 would put the near-term odds in favor of testing $2.54 and $2.58.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil confirmed daily bearish MACD and Stochastic divergences at the $84.52 swing high and settled below the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $72.44 today. The move down is likely a correction. Even so, prices also settled below the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave primary wave down from $84.52. Therefore, this wave favors a test of at least its $80.8 equal to (1.00) target. Settling below $80.8 will call for a test of the $79.9 intermediate (1.382) target, which is also the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $72.44. A normal correction should hold $79.9. Settling below this would warn that the move up is failing and call for a more substantial test of support.

A small intra-day double bottom formed around $81.25, so there is a modest chance for a test of the $82.16 confirmation point. Overcoming this would call for $82.5 and likely $83.2. The $83.2 level is key resistance for the near term because it is in line with the double bottom’s target and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $84.52. Rising to $83.2 will also invalidate the wave down from $84.52 which projects to $80.8 and lower. Settling above $83.2 would imply that the corrective move down is complete.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

For the past few weeks, August gold has held the $2308.7 confirmation point of a double top that formed around $2474 on a closing basis. Furthermore, a double bottom around $2304 formed, and today’s move up implies that a test of the $2383 confirmation point of the pattern will be tested. Settling above $2383 will warn that a the move down from $2477 is complete and open the way for a test of $2402 and higher in the coming days. The target of the double bottom is $2462. The connection to $2462 is made through $2412 and $2435.

That said, each time the move up has been poised to extend in recent weeks the move up has failed and prices have fallen to challenge recent lows. Today’s move up also held the $2373 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2304.7. Should prices fall and take out $2348 look for a test of key near-term support at $2328. settling below $2328 will put the near-term odds in favor of $2298 and lower.