Natural Gas Price Forecast – July 16, 2025

Tag: Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas rose to challenge a crucial objective at $3.57 today. This target is highly confluent, and, most importantly, is in line with the completion point of a weekly morning star setup, the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $3.149, and the 20-day moving average. Prices are rising toward $3.57 again late this afternoon. Natural gas is poised to overcome $3.57 to test at least $3.60 and likely $3.67 within the next day or so. Closing above these objectives will not only complete the weekly morning star but also open the way for a test of the reversal pattern’s $3.73 confirmation point. Settling above $3.73 will reflect rising bullish sentiment and indicate that a bullish reversal is underway.

The $3.57 target is a potential stalling point. Bearish KasePO and KaseCD divergences on the $0.025 Kase Bar chart warn that a deeper test of support might occur. However, there are no bearish signals on the daily chart, and the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $3.149 at $3.50 held. Taking out $3.50 would call for a test of key near-term support and the 38 percent retracement at $3.43. Settling below $3.43 will warn that the move up is failing and shift the near-term odds in favor of natural gas falling to challenge $3.37 and possibly the 62 percent retracement at $3.32.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil confirmed Monday’s dark cloud cover and settled below the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $64.0 and the 200-day moving average. This was bearish for the near-term outlook, and a test of $66.0 is expected. Settling below this will take out the 62 percent retracement from $64.0 and warn that the recent move up is a completed correction of the decline from $78.4.

That said, the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $64.0 at $66.2 was tested and held. Moreover, today’s doji reflects uncertainty. Overcoming the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $69.65 at $67.5 will call for a test of the 62 percent retracement at $68.3. Closing above this will call for another attempt to settle above key near-term resistance and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $78.4 at $69.5.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

August natural gas broke through major support at $3.39 on Tuesday, but failed to close below that level. A daily hammer formed, and prices rose to test and hold the 21 percent retracement of the decline from $4.230 on Wednesday. Daily bullish MACD, RSI, and Stochastic divergences were also confirmed on Wednesday.

The outlook leans bearish, and closing below $3.39 will open the way for a test of the $3.25 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $4.230. This wave connects to $2.92 as the equal to (1.00) target. Therefore, settling below $3.25 would call for a test of a longer-term bearish decision point at $3.08. This is the smaller than target of the wave down from $5.254 and connects to $2.39 as the equal to target.

Nevertheless, this is a tight call for the next few days. The failure to close below $3.39, the formation of a daily hammer, and the confirmation of daily bullish momentum oscillator divergences indicate that a reversal might occur. Prices will need to settle above $3.59 to complete the hammer and open the way for a test of the pattern’s $3.74 confirmation point. Settling above $3.74 would confirm a bullish reversal is underway.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

August WTI crude oil held above the 100-day moving average and rose to test the $66.0 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $64.0. The $66.0 level held. However, prices now have a slightly better chance of rising to challenge this wave’s $66.9 equal to (1.00) target versus falling to challenge the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $54.13 at $63.4. Closing above $66.9 will open the way for a test of the $67.7 intermediate (1.382) target, which, more importantly, is in line with the confirmation point of daily bullish candlesticks that formed last week and on Monday. Upon a close above $67.7, look for a larger test of resistance with targets at $68.5 and then $69.5. A normal correction of the decline from $78.40 will hold $69.5.

Nevertheless, this is still a tight call for the next few days because $66.0 and the midpoint of last Tuesday have held. Taking out the $64.5 swing low will invalidate the wave up from $64.0 and call for another attempt to test major support at $63.4. The $63.4 level is key because it is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $54.13 and the top of the range that the August contract had traded in between early April and late May.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

August natural gas continued to decline today and settled below the intermediate (1.382) target of the intraday wave down from $4.230 and the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $3.394. The August contract is poised to challenge the $3.54 larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $4.230 early tomorrow. This is a potential stalling point. However, given the aggressive nature of the decline for the past few days, there is a good chance for a test of $3.50. This important objective sits just below the lower threshold of the range that prices had traded in for a few weeks between approximately $3.51 and $3.91. Closing below $3.50 will likely be a challenge without a test of resistance first, but would confirm a bearish outlook and open the way for $3.44 and likely $3.38 in the coming days.

The move down is due for a correction soon. The challenge is that there are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to stall. Nonetheless, should prices rally before taking out $3.50 and close above key near-term resistance at $3.70, look for a test of $3.77 and $3.82. Holding $3.50 and settling above $3.82 would suggest that prices are settling back into a trading range.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil continued to fall as called for. Monday’s bearish engulfing line and the confirmation of daily RSI and Stochastic overbought signals suggest that a reversal is underway. Prices have also taken out an important swing low at $67.84 and settled below the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $54.13 and the 20-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. Tomorrow, look for a test of the 62 percent retracement at $63.4. This is also the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $67.19. A sustained close below $63.4 will confirm a bearish reversal and open the way for a continued decline in the coming days.

The decline from $78.40 is due for a correction. Prices bounced from $64.38, but the retracement was minimal relative to the size of the move down. The challenge is that there are no bullish patterns, signals, or setups that call for a test of resistance. The $63.4 target is an ideal stalling point, but again, there are no bullish factors that call for $63.4 to hold at this point.

Should prices rally before taking out $63.4 and close above today’s $67.7 open, look for a test of the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $78.40 at $69.5. A normal correction is expected to hold $69.5. Closing above this would reflect rising bullish sentiment again, opening the way for a more significant test of resistance.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

July natural gas is trading in a range between $3.44 and $3.84. Entering the week, prices had been poised to test the $3.84 confirmation point of a double bottom that formed around $3.44. However, prices have fallen back to test the lower threshold of the range during the past few days. The wave down from $3.840 calls for a test of its $3.41 equal to (1.00) target, which is also in line with the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $4.125. The connection to $3.41 is made through a minor target at $3.45. Settling below $3.41 will confirm a break lower out of the range, opening the way for a test of the $3.303 swing low.

That said, today’s long-legged doji reflects uncertainty and warns that prices could remain bound within the range as traders wait for more information. Should prices rise within the range again and overcome $3.58, look for a test of $3.63 and possibly key near-term resistance at $3.69. Settling above $3.69, which is the smaller than target of the wave up from $3.437, would put the odds back in favor of July natural gas rising to challenge the top of the range at $3.84.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil rose early today and overcame the $65.5 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $54.95. However, the move up stalled just below the $66.4 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $59.74. The subsequent pullback formed a daily dark cloud cover reversal pattern and took out the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $59.74.

The outlook for the coming weeks is bullish after the market broke higher out of the trading ranges that began in early April and May. Daily trend indicators are leaning bullish, and the primary wave up from $54.33 favors an eventual test of the $68.2 intermediate (1.382) target.

However, today’s pullback and formation of a daily dark cloud cover indicate that a test of at least $63.8 should occur before prices settle above $66.4. There are also daily bearish KaseCD and MACD divergence setups. These signals will likely be confirmed tomorrow unless a new high is made. Settling below $63.8 would call for the corrective pullback to extend to $63.0, $62.2, and possibly the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $54.33 at $61.7. A normal correction of the rise from $54.33 should hold $61.7.

That said, the move down from $66.28 lacks a clear wave, so a bounce might occur early tomorrow. Resistance at $65.5 is expected to hold. Overcoming this would suggest that the corrective pullback will be short-lived and call for another attempt to test and close above key near-term resistance at $66.4.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold tested and held the $3420 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $3151 today. Most waves that meet the smaller than target extend to eventually fulfill at least the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $3500. Therefore, the outlook for gold remains bullish. Settling above $3425, a confluence point among the projections of the waves and subwaves up from $3151, will open the way for $3454 and then $3500.

Nevertheless, the pullback from $3427.7 may test $3322 first. This is the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $3151 and a level that a normal correction should hold. Closing below $3322 would call for an extended correction to challenge the respective 50 and 62 percent retracement at $3290 and $3257. Gold must settle below $3257 to imply that the move up from $3151 is complete and that a reversal is underway.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas formed a double bottom around the $3.436 swing low late last week. Prices rallied on Monday and settled above the $3.69 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $3.436 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.840. The wave up from $3.436 favors a test of its $3.84 equal (1.00) target. This is the confirmation point of the double bottom and is also in line with projections of a few subwaves up from $3.437 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $4.125. The connection to $3.84 is made through confluent targets at $3.74 and $3.79. Settling above $3.84 will confirm the double bottom, opening the way for a test of the $3.94 smaller than target of the wave up from $3.303. This wave connects to $4.25 as the equal to (1.00) target, which is also the target of the double bottom.

That said, July natural gas is struggling to settle above the 78 percent retracement of the decline from $3.840 and the 20-day moving average. Bearish hanging man candlesticks that formed Tuesday and Wednesday also warn that a test of support might occur first and that the move up may fail to reach $3.84 within the next few days. Taking out $3.65 would call for a test of $3.56 and possibly key near-term support at $3.51. Settling below $3.51, which is near the smaller than target of the wave down from $3.832, will shift the odds in favor of prices falling to negate the double bottom and challenge the $3.41 smaller than target of the wave down from $4.125 instead.