Natural Gas Price Forecast – April 17, 2024

Tag: Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas tested the $1.66 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.152 again today. This target continues to hold on a closing basis, and there is now a small double bottom that has formed around this key objective. Even so, meeting the $1.66 objective is bearish for the outlook because most waves that fulfill their smaller than target eventually extend to the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $1.48. Therefore, the outlook continues to lean bearish for the coming days. Closing below $1.66 will call for a highly confluent and important target at $1.62 that then connects to $1.58 and lower.

Nevertheless, this is still an area in which the move down may stall. Should prices rise above $1.74 look for a test of the $1.76 smaller than target of the wave up from $1.649. Settling above $1.76 would call for a test of $1.82, a close above which will confirm the double bottom and put the odds in favor of a more substantial test of resistance instead.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil’s corrective move down accelerated today. Prices settled below the 20-day moving average, the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $80.3, and the $84.55 confirmation point of a double top that formed around $87.65. The daily Kase Trend indicator is now bearish and the 10-day DMI had a bearish crossover. The $82.56 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $87.67 held, so a test of resistance might occur first. Even so, today’s $84.0 midpoint is expected to hold because the move down should now fulfill the $81.5 target of the double top within the next few days. Settling below $81.5 will call for the $81.1 intermediate (1.382) target and possibly the $80.3 larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $87.67 to be fulfilled.

The aggressive nature of today’s move down likely reflects a bearish shift in near-term sentiment. Nevertheless, the move down is still a correction and would have to take out the last major swing low of $80.3 to suggest further that a reversal is underway. Also, because $82.6 held on a closing basis there is a modest chance for a test of resistance first. As stated, today’s $84.0 midpoint is expected to hold. Overcoming this would call for a test of key near-term resistance and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $87.67 at $84.5. This was major support that has now become resistance given $84.5 is also in line with the $84.55 confirmation point of the confirmed double top.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rallied to settle above Wednesday’s open. The move up also overcame the $2378 equal to (1.00) target of the waves up from $2016.3 and $2337.1 as well as the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $2343.1 and the 89 percent retracement of the decline from $2384.5 during post-settlement trading hours. Today’s rise implies that the corrective pullback from $2384.5 is complete. Tomorrow, look for a test of $2394. Settling above this will open the way for $2410 and then a test of the next major uptrend objective at $2446 in the coming days.

Because the $2384.5 swing high held, bearish daily divergences that were confirmed at that high are still intact. It is doubtful that $2384.5 will continue to hold. Even so, should prices turn lower and take out $2365 look for a test of $2354 and possibly key near-term support at $2335.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas rose above the $1.92 target as expected today but stalled at $1.943 before it could reach the $1.95 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $1.746. The move up is still poised to extend because the primary wave up from $1.686 still favors a test of its $1.97 equal to (1.00) target. Furthermore, all prior swing lows that formed during the move up from $1.686 have held so far. Overcoming the $1.93 smaller than target of the most recent wave up from $1.843 will call for a test of $1.95 and likely $1.97.

With that said, the move up has begun to show signs of weakness. Pseudo daily shooting stars that formed Tuesday and Wednesday along with the pullback from $1.943 suggest a test of $1.85 might take place first. This is the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $1.686. A normal correction will hold $1.85. Falling below $1.85 will warn that the move up is failing and call for an extended test of support where $1.78, the 62 percent retracement, is key. Settling below this would shift near-term odds in favor of a continued decline or at least a period of consolidation before prices try to rise again.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil’s uptrend is intact but has been due for a correction. Friday’s confirmed evening star, Monday’s long-legged doji, and daily bearish weak KaseCD and MACD divergences indicate a solid test of support should take place before the uptrend extends. Furthermore, Tuesday’s decline took out the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $87.63 and the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $87.1. Therefore, the corrective move down is poised to test at least $84.7 and likely the $84.1 equal to target of the wave down from $87.63. Settling below $84.1, which is also the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $80.3, will call for an extended correction to challenge this wave’s $83.0 intermediate (1.382) and $82.3 larger than (1.618) targets in the coming days.

Taking out the $85.3 target has increased the odds for a deeper test of support. However, this is still a somewhat tight call for the near term because similar corrections in recent weeks have been short-lived. Should WTI crude oil turn higher and overcome the $86.6 smaller than target of the wave up from $84.69 the odds for a deeper test of support will be significantly dampened. In this scenario, look for a test of key near-term resistance at $87.5. Settling above $87.5 would confirm that the correction is complete and shift near-term odds in favor of rising to $88.4 and likely $89.1.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rose today and settled above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2200.6 at $2190. The uptrend is intact but this is a tight call for the near term because the corrective move down from $2225.3 still shows potential to extend upon a close below key support at $2159. Even so, today’s rise has positioned gold to challenge key near-term resistance at $2203. This is in line with the 62 percent retracement from $2225.3 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2158.4. Settling above $2203 will strongly imply that the correction is complete and open the way for $2218 and then a test of this wave’s $2233 equal to (1.00) target.

Nevertheless, trading has been erratic for the past week and the close above $2190 was nominal. Should gold fall again look for initial support at $2179 and then $2168. Closing below $2168 would warn that the move up is failing again and call for a test of key support and the smaller than target of the wave down from $2225.3 at $2159. Settling below this will call for the corrective move down to extend to $2136 and possibly lower.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

May natural gas fell to a new contract low and finally settled below an important target at $1.76. The move down is now poised to test the $1.69 equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $1.900 and then the $1.66 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.152. There is a lot of support around $1.66, so this is a potential stalling point for the May contract. Nevertheless, closing below $1.66 will call for $1.63, $1.60, and eventually a test of the $1.51 equal to target of the wave down from $2.152.

There are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to stall before reaching at least $1.69 and likely $1.66. Today’s decline also negated a daily weak bullish KasePO divergence. Nevertheless, should natural gas rally tomorrow look for initial resistance at $1.75 and key near-term resistance at $1.79. Settling above $1.79 would shift near-term odds in favor of a more significant test of resistance where $1.88 is most important.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil’s pullback from $83.12 is likely a correction. Last week’s shooting star, confirmed daily KaseCD and MACD divergences, and a daily PeakOut (overbought) signal indicate a deeper test of support should take place. However, Monday’s rally and move above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $83.12 dampened the odds for an extended correction.

Nevertheless, Tuesday’s move down fulfilled the $81.5 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $82.48. Furthermore, with gasoline and diesel prices falling WTI will probably be hard-pressed to settle above key resistance at $82.6 during the next few days. Therefore, the near-term outlook leans bearish and closing below $81.1, the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $80.3, will call for a test of the $80.7 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $83.12. Settling below this will open the way for a test of at least this wave’s $79.7 equal to (1.00) target before the uptrend extends to a new high.

With that said, this is a tight call for the next few days. The uptrend is intact and, as stated, the pullback from $83.12 is likely a correction. Should WTI crude oil rise again and overcome $82.1 look for a test of the $82.6 smaller than target of the compound wave up from $80.3. Settling above this would shift the near-term odds back in favor of prices rising to $83.3 and higher.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rallied and stalled just above the $2221 target discussed in Wednesday’s analysis at $2225.3 before pulling back. A daily long-legged doji reflects near-term uncertainty and warns that a deeper test of support will likely take place before the uptrend extends to the next major target at $2246. This is a tight call, but near-term odds favor a test of the $2175 larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $2225.3. Closing below this will call for the corrective move down to extend to $2165, $2149, and possibly $2138 in the coming days.

Nevertheless, prices rose at the end of the day and may challenge the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2225.3 at $2203 early tomorrow. This is also the prior swing high. Closing above $2203 would strongly suggest that the move down from $2225.3 is complete. Settling above the $2215 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2149.2 will confirm this is the case and put the odds in favor of gold rising to $2246.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas is stuck in a trading range between $1.64 and $1.77. Prices failed to test the top of the range and the $1.78 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $1.643 after settling above this wave’s $1.73 smaller than (0.618) target Tuesday. Instead, April natural gas fell to test the $1.69 smaller than target of the wave down from $1.774. This is also the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1.646. The $1.69 target held on a closing basis, but meeting this objective has put near-term odds in favor of testing the $1.64 equal to target of the wave down from $1.774. Taking out $1.67 will increase the odds for such a move. Closing below $1.64 will confirm a bearish outlook for the coming days and open the way for a new April natural gas contract low of at least $1.59.

Nevertheless, this is still a very tight call for the near-term because $1.69 held on a closing basis. Should prices rise above $1.74 early tomorrow look for another attempt to test and overcome $1.78. Settling above $1.78 will confirm a break higher out of the range and the double bottom that formed around $1.643. Such a move will shift odds in favor of challenging $1.83 and higher in the coming days.