Natural Gas Price Forecast Archives - Page 16 of 19

By Dean Rogers

For most of 2015 natural gas has traded within a range between $2.65 and $2.95, and within the past week prices have tested both the upper and lower boundaries of the range. After failing to overcome $2.95 and stalling at $2.934 on August 12, prices declined to $2.68 on August 18, a confluent target for the waves down from $2.957 and $2.934.

Technical and fundamental factors favor a continued decline below the $2.65 boundary of the range to at least $2.60. This is another confluent target and a close below $2.60 would confirm the break lower out of the trading range.

Wednesday’s bullish Harami land and star setup indicates that the upward correction from $2.68 might extend to $2.776 and possibly $2.834 first. These are the 38 and 62 percent retracement of the move down from $2.934. Resistance at $2.776 should hold, but $2.834 is the threshold for another attempt to overcome $2.95.

Overall, the bias is negative. The move down may be a grind lower for now, but time is running short for summer weather to continue to support prices above $2.65. Last week’s push to $2.934 may have been the last hurrah, and the move down is now poised to continue.

This is a brief natural gas forecast ahead of tomorrow’s EIA report. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary is a much more detailed and thorough analysis. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four week trial.

By Dean Rogers

For several weeks natural gas has been trading within a range bound between $2.65 and $2.95, and more recently between $2.71 and $2.88. On Wednesday natural gas prices closed at the highest level since May 21 at $2.931, and the first class KEES permissions (blue dots) confirm the positive tone. Natural gas futures are now poised to overcome $2.95 and challenge $3.00. This is a confluent projection for the waves up from $2.656 and $2.706.

A close over $3.00 will open the way for an extended upward correction, but keep in mind, this rally may be short lived as the end of summer and its warm weather are rapidly approaching. This upward correction may very well be the last hurrah before the end of summer, and it is going to be a lot easier for longer-term bears to short from $3.00 versus $2.70.

In addition, not only is the market is nearing a past failure point at $2.95, but both the KaseCD and KasePO momentum indicators are setup for bearish divergence. This is a signal that forms when higher price highs are accompanied by lower momentum highs. Bearish divergence is a signal that indicates the move up is exhausted.

Should price turn lower look for support at $2.85 and $2.70. These are the 38 and 62 percent retracements of the move up from $2.706 to $2.934.

By Dean Rogers

Patience is a virtue.

Natural gas has been trying the patience of traders as it continues to trade in a range between approximately $2.65 and $2.95. This week’s rise from $2.706 is very similar to last week’s move up from $2.735, and given today’s decline and close below $2.80, it looks like another failure to overcome key resistance at $2.89 is taking place…again!

September futures stalled at $2.863, the 62 percent retracement from $2.957 to $2.706. This is also just below $2.892, the 0.618 projection of the wave up from $2.656. The retracements and projections confirm that $2.89 is a key level. A close over this would call for an attempt to overcome $2.95 and break out of the trading range.

However, the bearish KaseCD divergence and close below $2.80, the 38 percent retracement from $2.706 to $2.863, indicates prices are now positioned to challenge support at $2.77, the 62 percent retracement. A close below $2.77 would then open the way for another attempt of $2.65 and lower.

The take away this week – be patient.

By Dean Rogers

Natural gas continues to oscillate in a range between $2.65 and $2.95 as weather forecasts change from week-to-week. “Sweltering” heat in the US Northeast is the latest reason reported for this week’s price rise.

However, it is important to keep in mind that the shifting weather forecasts and related events have kept the market range bound for the last few months, and even if prices do break higher the move is still corrective of the longer-term down trend.

If I sound skeptical of the move up, it is because I am, but as of Wednesday’s close most technical factors indicate $2.95 may be challenged again. These factors show that the key to testing $2.95 is a close over $2.87. This crucial resistance level was tested a few times on Wednesday. It is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2.957 to $2.735, near last Thursday’s midpoint, and a confluent projection for the small waves up from $2.735. A close over $2.87 would call for a test of $2.95, which is in line with the 0.618 projection of the wave $2.656 – 2.957 – 2.735.

KaseX’s buy signal (green diamond) is promising and the pullback from $2.87 held the 38 percent retracement of the move up from $2.735. Look for prices to push above $2.87 in early trading tomorrow and to possibly overcome $2.95 in the event that the EIA storage report is bullish.

Near term support is $2.79, the 62 percent retracement from $2.735 to $2.87. This level should hold provided the move up is going to challenge $2.95. A close below $2.79 would shift the near-term outlook to negative and call for $2.73.

Natural gas is idling in neutral again and is struggling to overcome key resistance levels. We are still negative for the longer-term, but the near term outlook is looking slightly positive.

The small move up is confirmed by long KaseX signals (green diamonds) on the $0.035 Kase Bar chart. In addition, Wednesday’s close over $2.895, the 1.00 projection for the wave up from $2.785, has opened the way for its 1.618 projection near $2.96. The $2.96 target is crucial because it is the 0.618 projection for the wave up from $2.644. A close over $2.96 would call for an extended correction to targets above $3.00.

Other than the quick move up from $2.644, the recent move up has lacked conviction. A daily evening star setup and hanging man indicates traders are still not quite sure if the market is ready to make the push higher. Tuesday’s $2.84 open is first support, and a close below this would call for another test of the $2.785 swing low.

August natural gas is attempting to rally above $3.00 after stalling at $2.644 last Thursday. The surge over the last week may be a desperate attempt to push prices to targets above $3.00 before summer’s end, and is being driven by speculation of above normal temperatures through the end of this month and into August.

The near-term outlook took a positive turn Wednesday when prices closed above $2.884, the 0.618 projection of the wave $2.588 – 2.977- 2.644. This clears the way for a rally to the 1.00 projection of $3.03. This is a potential stalling point for the upward correction. A close over $3.03 would call for the $3.20 confluence point with intermediate resistance at $3.11.

Caution is warranted though because it is a bit early to get overly exuberant about a bullish recovery. The balance of bullish and bearish factors is razor thin and shifts day-to-day. The move up is almost certainly corrective of the longer-term decline. Do not be surprised to see prices pull back and settle below $2.82 on Thursday should there be a disappointing EIA storage report. This, in turn, would call for $2.75 and lower.

After the 4th of July weekend the energy markets, unlike the weather across most of the U.S., heated up. The lack of warm summer weather in key areas of the county has given way to lower prices for natural gas. August natural gas futures finally closed below $2.73 on Tuesday and Wednesday. The move has been quiet relative to the noise being made by crude oil, but the break lower indicates prices should continue to decline. That said, the bullish KaseCD divergence and KasePO PeakOut (oversold signal) on the $0.035 Kase Bar chart indicate the decline will be a grind.

The wave $2.977 – 2.733 – 2.885 took out its 0.618 projection at $2.73, therefore odds favor at least $2.64, its 1.00 projection. This is a highly confluent and important target that protects the $2.588 swing low. We expect to see a bounce from $2.64 given its importance. A close below $2.64 would call for $2.55 and $2.50.

The 38 percent retracement from $2.885 to $2.676 is $2.76. Key near-term resistance is $2.81, the 62 percent retracement. Both levels are in line with the two previous intraday swing highs of $2.756 and $2.80. A close over $2.81 is unlikely unless tomorrow’s Energy Information Agency (EIA) report is extremely bullish.

Markets are rarely more balanced that what we have experienced for natural gas over the past few weeks. After August failed to overcome $2.95 it stalled at $2.73, and is now in a mini-range between $2.73 and $2.87. Considering this week marked the end of the month and quarter, and is shortened due to the 4th of July holiday, a breakout will likely be delayed until next week.

The market is waiting for factors like summer weather and/or supply/demand issues to give us a breaking. The longer it delays the move up though, the more prices will erode away until it is too late to make a meaningful push higher.

It is still a bit early for the market to give up on a summer rally, but based on many technical factors we favor a break lower out of the mini-range between $2.73 and $2.87. This morning’s failed attempt to overcome $2.87, bearish KaseCD divergence and first short signal confirm our call. This would open the way for a confluent $2.64 target.

Should prices close over $2.87 look for another test of $2.95, which is the key threshold for a push to levels above $3.00 and a summer rally.

This is a brief natural gas forecast ahead of tomorrow’s EIA report. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary is a much more detailed and thorough analysis. If you are interested, please sign up for a complimentary four week trial.

Day-to-day speculation regarding summer weather forecasts continue to dominate short-term natural gas prices. The lack of clarity has caused natural gas to settle into a range between $2.55 and $2.95 after failing to close over the upper end of the range last week.

Technical factors show that prices are due for a test of the lower end of the range where contract lows will be challenged. Because the wave down from $2.955 (shown in red) met its 0.618 projection we expect to see at least its 1.00 projection of $2.62. This is also the 0.618 for the wave down from $3.105 (shown in blue).

That said, it is still early for support to give way to the longer-term bearish trend, so the decline will likely be a grind. Support at $2.71 is holding strong, but a disappointing EIA storage report tomorrow would clear the way for $2.62. This is a confluence point just like $2.71, so $2.62 should hold.

Key resistance is $2.83 because it is in line with the $2.837 swing high. Overcoming $2.837 will take out the wave down from $2.955 and negate the near-term potential for $2.62.

Last week we discussed the chart below and the importance of $2.92 as the 0.618 projection of the wave up from $2.54 (not shown) and the 62 percent retracement from $3.15. The chart is being shown again, with a few updates, because not much has changed over the past week.

The crucial $2.92 level has been tested four times now, including this morning’s brief excursion to $2.955. Because prices failed to close over $2.92 again, we expect to see another oscillation lower to challenge support at $2.80. This is the 38 percent retracement of the move up and is near Monday’s $2.83 midpoint and Tuesday’s $2.831 low.

The bearish KaseCD and KasePO divergence and the DevStop2 hit on the $0.035 Kase Bar chart support the move lower and test of $2.80 tomorrow.

Tomorrow’s EIA may be the catalyst the market needs to either close over $2.92 or below $2.80. A close over $2.92 has strong bullish implications as discussed in our weekly natural gas forecast. A close back below $2.80 would call for another test of support and possibly the contract lows. For now, $2.92 and $2.80 are the levels to watch for clarification of the near-term, and possibly the longer-term, direction.

This is a brief analysis ahead of tomorrow’s EIA report. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary is a much more detailed and thorough analysis. If you are interested, please sign up for a complimentary four week trial.

Natural Gas Forecast: Technicals Call for Decline to Continue

Category: Natural Gas Price Forecast