Midweek Natural Gas Forecast – July 15, 2015

August natural gas is attempting to rally above $3.00 after stalling at $2.644 last Thursday. The surge over the last week may be a desperate attempt to push prices to targets above $3.00 before summer’s end, and is being driven by speculation of above normal temperatures through the end of this month and into August.

The near-term outlook took a positive turn Wednesday when prices closed above $2.884, the 0.618 projection of the wave $2.588 – 2.977- 2.644. This clears the way for a rally to the 1.00 projection of $3.03. This is a potential stalling point for the upward correction. A close over $3.03 would call for the $3.20 confluence point with intermediate resistance at $3.11.

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Caution is warranted though because it is a bit early to get overly exuberant about a bullish recovery. The balance of bullish and bearish factors is razor thin and shifts day-to-day. The move up is almost certainly corrective of the longer-term decline. Do not be surprised to see prices pull back and settle below $2.82 on Thursday should there be a disappointing EIA storage report. This, in turn, would call for $2.75 and lower.

This is a brief natural gas forecast ahead of tomorrow’s EIA report. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary is a much more detailed and thorough analysis. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four week trial.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

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