WTI crude oil’s move up stalled near $66.4, the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave up from $57.6 last week. The subsequent pullback initially looked corrective, forming four stars and settling the week above March 23’s open. However, the move down accelerated on Monday and is poised to challenge important support at $62.4 within the next day or so.

Today’s move up from $62.8 was shallow and choppy and forms a bearish flag. The flag’s lower trend line is nominally $63.2, which is also an important retracement and today’s midpoint. An early move below this tomorrow would confirm a break lower out of the flag and open the way for $62.4.

That said, should $63.2 hold and prices rise above the flag’s upper trend line around $64.3, look for a test of key resistance at $65.1. Settling above $65.1 would shift near-term odds back in favor of a larger scale move up with near-term targets at $66.1 and $66.7.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

May WTI crude oil fulfilled a highly confluent and extremely important target at $64.0 today when price rose to $63.98. The move up comes after prices broke higher out of the bullish descending flat wedge Friday and then tested and held the pattern’s upper trend line Monday. As discussed in our weekly forecast, $64.0 is the gateway to a stronger and possibly longer-term bullish outlook. A sustained close above $64.0 will open the way for the next major objective at $66.4, with intermediate targets of $64.8 and $65.4 between.

Crude oil prices pulled back a bit from $63.98 and confirmed a weak bearish KaseCD divergence on the $0.50 Kase Bar chart. This, and the small wave down from $63.98, indicate there is a modest chance for a larger pullback tomorrow. Initial support is $62.9 and key support for tomorrow is $62.3. A close below $62.3 would call for a larger correction to $61.4, which is most important because a close below this would be an early indication that the move up may have stalled again. That said, the outlook does not become solidly negative until there is a sustained close below at least $60.3.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

The WTI crude oil forecast remains slightly negative given today’s decline to $60.27 after testing and holding resistance around $62.0. The move down is expected to continue, but a small double bottom around $60.27 indicates prices will probably challenge $61.4 first. Resistance is expected to hold.

Today’s decline to $60.27 fulfilled important projections for recent waves down from $64.24, $63.28, and $62.33 that connect to $59.7 and key support at $59.1. As discussed in the weekly forecast, $59.1 is the gateway for a longer-term bearish outlook. It may take at least another few days to reach $59.1, but a close below this would finally break WTI’s stalemate and open the way for a more bearish outlook.

That said, this afternoon’s move above the $60.85 swing high completes the small double intra-day bottom at $60.27. The pattern’s target is $61.4, which is also in line with today’s open. This level should hold, but a close over $61.4 would call for another attempt at $61.9 and possibly $62.6. The latter is most important for the near-term because it connects to $63.3 and ultimately $63.9, the key threshold for a long-term bullish outlook discussed at length in the weekly forecast.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

The long-term outlook remains slightly negative for WTI crude oil, but the near-term outlook seems to switch from positive to negative on a day-to-day basis. This generally reflects a market that is unsure of itself and could indicate a trading range is forming. For now, though, given today’s failure to settle above the equal to (1.00) target of the wave $60.13 – 61.97 – 61.1 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $64.24, odds have shifted in favor of testing support tomorrow.

The formation of a daily shooting star setup and wave formation down from $63.28 call for $62.0 and possibly $61.6 tomorrow. These are targets for the small wave down from $63.28 and the shooting star’s completion and confirmation points. A close below $62.0 would open the way for $61.1 and $60.7. The latter is most important because it is the smaller than target of the wave $64.24 – 60.13 – 63.28 and connects to $59.2 and lower.

Initial resistance at $63.0 should hold, but the key level for the near-term is $63.5. A close above this would call for $64.1, the smaller than target of the wave up from $57.9. This level is the key to a bullish outlook because a close above $64.0 would shift long-term odds in favor of a continued rise to $66.5 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil’s settle below Friday’s $63.1 midpoint and the daily bearish engulfing line is negative for tomorrow’s outlook.

There is immediate support at Friday’s $62.6 open, but the small wave formation down from $64.24 calls for at least $62.3 and likely $61.9. The latter is most crucial for the near-term because it is the 50-day moving average, the 38 percent retracement of the move up from $57.9, and is near last Thursday’s $62.1 midpoint.

A close below $61.9 would open the way for a test of key support at $60.3. This is the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $57.9 and is near calendar January’s open. Settling below $60.3 would shift long-term odds back in favor of a continued decline.

That said, the move down is probably corrective of the move up from $57.9. Today’s $63.5 midpoint and $64.1 open are initial resistance. $63.5 should hold but $64.1 is key. A close above this would call for tests of $64.5 and $65.5, the last levels protecting the $66.39 high.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.