WTI-Brent Spread Update

Category: Oil Price Forecast

The WTI-Brent spread narrowed last week, but the move looks corrective. The spread will likely oscillate for the near-term, but ultimately odds favor a widening spread. The first target is (5.00), and a close below this would call for (6.50) and (9.00). Key long-term support is (11.80). This is a confluent wave projection and the 62 percent retracement from (19.38) to (0.01). Resistance at (0.90) should hold. A sustained close over (0.90) would open the way for 1.30 and 2.90.

For more information and to take a trial of Kase’s weekly energy forecasts please visit the Energy Price Forecasts page.

WTI-Brent


December 2014 NY Harbor ULSD futures have formed a rectangle pattern. A break out of the rectangle will provide a near-term direction. Monday’s close below Friday’s midpoint indicates the pattern will likely break lower. Upon a close below 243.5 look for the pattern to break lower and decline to at least 236.4, which then connects to 225.1 and 213.2. A close over 253.8 would call for a break higher, and would open the way for 259.7, 267.4, and 282.1.

For more information and to take a trial of Kase’s weekly energy forecasts please visit the Energy Price Forecasts page.

HOZ4

December WTI broke the recent and crucial $79.1 swing low when prices fell to a $78.14 intraday low on Monday. This was the 1.00 projection for the two largest waves down from $106.81 (Wave A) and $103.66 (Wave A’/C). WTI is now poised for at least $73.9 and possibly $69.8, which are the next targets for these waves. Look for near-term resistance at $79.8, $83.0, and $84.8.

For more information about this call, the importance of these targets (and others), and the technical factors driving prices lower, take a trial of Kase’s weekly energy forecasts.

December WTI

December RBOB futures met confluent support at $2.0776, and prices have subsequently settled into a coil formation that should break lower. However, a KasePO PeakOut (green P), indicates the move down is oversold and due for a correction. A directional break out of the coil will help to clarify the near term direction. Upon a break lower, look for $2.041 and then $1.915. Should the upward correction extend, watch for resistance at $2.240 and $2.368. The latter is expected to hold.

For more information and to take a trial of Kase’s weekly energy forecasts please visit the Energy Price Forecasts page.

XBZ4 Comdty



The Kase Commentaries on Crude Oil and on Natural Gas provide highly accurate weekly near term market outlooks. Kase’s analysis has proven to be remarkably accurate in identifying critical market turning points and probable market behavior.nnThe Commentary is highly technical, but interactive, so readers can click on unique words and phrases for definition to help them better understand the analysis. This is a great stand-alone product, but also works well as a companion product for Kase StatWare, KaseX or any of Kase’s Hedging Models.nnKase offers a free trial period for the Commentary so contact us today!

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