Crude Oil Short-Term Forecast – March 6, 2018

The long-term outlook remains slightly negative for WTI crude oil, but the near-term outlook seems to switch from positive to negative on a day-to-day basis. This generally reflects a market that is unsure of itself and could indicate a trading range is forming. For now, though, given today’s failure to settle above the equal to (1.00) target of the wave $60.13 – 61.97 – 61.1 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $64.24, odds have shifted in favor of testing support tomorrow.

The formation of a daily shooting star setup and wave formation down from $63.28 call for $62.0 and possibly $61.6 tomorrow. These are targets for the small wave down from $63.28 and the shooting star’s completion and confirmation points. A close below $62.0 would open the way for $61.1 and $60.7. The latter is most important because it is the smaller than target of the wave $64.24 – 60.13 – 63.28 and connects to $59.2 and lower.

April WTI Crude Oil - 0.35 Kase Bar
April WTI Crude Oil – 0.35 Kase Bar

Initial resistance at $63.0 should hold, but the key level for the near-term is $63.5. A close above this would call for $64.1, the smaller than target of the wave up from $57.9. This level is the key to a bullish outlook because a close above $64.0 would shift long-term odds in favor of a continued rise to $66.5 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

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