The long-term outlook remains slightly negative for WTI crude oil, but the near-term outlook seems to switch from positive to negative on a day-to-day basis. This generally reflects a market that is unsure of itself and could indicate a trading range is forming. For now, though, given today’s failure to settle above the equal to (1.00) target of the wave $60.13 – 61.97 – 61.1 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $64.24, odds have shifted in favor of testing support tomorrow.
The formation of a daily shooting star setup and wave formation down from $63.28 call for $62.0 and possibly $61.6 tomorrow. These are targets for the small wave down from $63.28 and the shooting star’s completion and confirmation points. A close below $62.0 would open the way for $61.1 and $60.7. The latter is most important because it is the smaller than target of the wave $64.24 – 60.13 – 63.28 and connects to $59.2 and lower.
Initial resistance at $63.0 should hold, but the key level for the near-term is $63.5. A close above this would call for $64.1, the smaller than target of the wave up from $57.9. This level is the key to a bullish outlook because a close above $64.0 would shift long-term odds in favor of a continued rise to $66.5 and higher.
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