Crude Oil Short-Term Forecast – February 27, 2018

WTI crude oil’s settle below Friday’s $63.1 midpoint and the daily bearish engulfing line is negative for tomorrow’s outlook.

There is immediate support at Friday’s $62.6 open, but the small wave formation down from $64.24 calls for at least $62.3 and likely $61.9. The latter is most crucial for the near-term because it is the 50-day moving average, the 38 percent retracement of the move up from $57.9, and is near last Thursday’s $62.1 midpoint.

April WTI Crude Oil - Daily
April WTI Crude Oil – Daily

A close below $61.9 would open the way for a test of key support at $60.3. This is the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $57.9 and is near calendar January’s open. Settling below $60.3 would shift long-term odds back in favor of a continued decline.

That said, the move down is probably corrective of the move up from $57.9. Today’s $63.5 midpoint and $64.1 open are initial resistance. $63.5 should hold but $64.1 is key. A close above this would call for tests of $64.5 and $65.5, the last levels protecting the $66.39 high.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

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