Short-Term Energy Forecasts – January 17, 2018

WTI Crude Oil Forecast

March WTI crude oil confirmed bearish daily KasePO and KaseCD weak divergences. A weak divergence is one that forms when the confirming bar closes in the opposite direction of the signal, in this case, up. Weak divergences generally do not follow through as well as normal divergences but do warrant caution. In addition, yesterday’s midpoint held, leaving the daily dark cloud cover reversal pattern intact.

Tomorrow odds favor a continued decline to at least $63.2. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave $64.83 – 63.25 – 64.14 and connects to $62.5 as the equal to (1.00) target. Settling below $62.5 would open the way for a larger pullback to $62.0 and even $61.6, the intermediate (1.382) and larger than (1.618) targets for the wave down from $64.83.

WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart
WTI Crude Oil Daily Chart

Should prices rise a bit higher first, look for $64.4 resistance to hold. A move above this would call for a new high of $65.1, a highly confluent and key threshold that connects to $66.3 and higher.

Natural Gas Forecast

February natural gas a crucial target at $3.29 when it rose to $3.288 today. This is an extremely important area for natural gas because $3.29 is in line with the equal to (1.00) projection of the wave $2.562 – 3.097 – 2.746, the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.772, and the 200-day moving average. A sustained close above $3.29 would confirm the market’s bullish sentiment, opening the way for a larger scale move up to $3.49 and possibly higher over the next few weeks.

That said, given the importance of $3.29 caution is warranted. This is a potential area in which the move up could stall and another sizable correction take place. In addition, the KaseCD, MACD, and Slow Stochastic are set up for bearish daily divergence.

Natural Gas Daily Chart
Natural Gas Daily Chart

If prices are going to overcome $3.29 this week $3.18 should hold. Key support for the next few days is $3.13, today’s open and the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $3.039. A close below this would not doom the move up but would open the way for a more substantial correction to challenge support at $3.08 and even $3.01.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil and Natural Gas Commentaries and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key futures contracts, calendar spreads, and ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

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