12/17/2014 Kase Chat

RBOB Gasoline continued its decline and met a crucial target at 155.8 for the primary wave down from 315.2. The trend terminus (T = 156.3), is the lowest that most trends extend. However, there is no evidence that the decline is going to end. The next targets are 147.3 and 139.2. The KaseCD is setup for divergence and the KasePO is oversold, so a correction may take place soon. Last week’s midpoint and open are initial resistance at 168.1 and 176.5. A close over 176.5 would call for $198.3.

rbob




Kase’s senior analyst Dean Rogers reviews trade setups and price forecasts for e-mini S&P 500, AAPL, and MSFT, using Kase Wave Analysis and Kase StatWare.

http://youtu.be/SZ-ipWldKTc

Coming into this week there was an outside chance that Brent would hold $67.0. However, prices settled below $67.0 on Monday. There is immediate support at $65.2 as discussed in this week’s Crude Oil Commentary, but the decline is now poised for at least $62.8 and likely $58.5 before a measurable retracement takes place. The key target is $58.5 because it is the most confluent wave projection and the equal to (1.00) target for the wave $112.59 – 83.41 – 88.42. A sustained close below this will open the way for $53.8 and $48.7.

There is very little evidence that the move down is going to end at this time. Prices are still deeply oversold and overdue for a correction, but until at least initial resistance at $70.5 is overcome, the move down is favored. Next resistance is $72.1, and a close over the this would call for and an extended correction to $75.1 and possibly $79.8.

For detailed weekly forecasts take a trial of our energy commentaries.

brent


The outlook for WTI Crude Oil is negative, but prices met crucial support at $63.4. This is a confluent wave projection for the January contract, and more importantly, is the 62 percent retracement from the perpetual low of $32.4 to $114.83. In addition, the KaseCD is oversold on the monthly chart. The importance of $63.4 indicates it is a potential stalling point, but there is little technical evidence so far to definitively call for a bottom. A sustained close below $63.4 will call for $49.7. Key near term resistance is $73.3.

For more detailed energy forecasts please take a trial of the Energy Price Forecasts.

CL1


The HOCL crack spread has narrowed after forming a double top at $27.26. A close below the $18.887 swing low would confirm the pattern. KaseX also indicates the spread should narrow. However, the move may be corrective. Crucial support at $22.38 is the 62 percent retracement from $18.887 and the 38 percent retracement from $14.987. A close below $22.38 would call for $19.5; the last level protecting $18.887. Resistance at $25.6 is key. A sustained close over this would open the way for $31.14 and higher.

Please click the links for more information about KaseX and our energy forecasts.

HOCL




Kase’s senior analyst Dean Rogers reviews trade setups and price forecasts for e-mini S&P 500, crude oil, natural gas, AAPL, and VIPS using Kase Outlook, Kase StatWare, and KaseX.

http://youtu.be/pLCujMm5-WE

The WTI-Brent spread narrowed last week, but the move looks corrective. The spread will likely oscillate for the near-term, but ultimately odds favor a widening spread. The first target is (5.00), and a close below this would call for (6.50) and (9.00). Key long-term support is (11.80). This is a confluent wave projection and the 62 percent retracement from (19.38) to (0.01). Resistance at (0.90) should hold. A sustained close over (0.90) would open the way for 1.30 and 2.90.

For more information and to take a trial of Kase’s weekly energy forecasts please visit the Energy Price Forecasts page.

WTI-Brent




This is the fourth of a four part series on Kase Wave Analysis. In this video Kase’s senior analyst, Dean Rogers, shows how the Kase Wave Analysis can be combined with other technical factors and indicators to make trading decisions.

http://youtu.be/3JcHjdr2QWM