WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The near-term outlook for WTI remains bearish. Originally, it looked as though the move down from $67.79 was unfolding as a five-wave pattern that targets $54.9 or, more likely, $53.7. However, Waves I and III lack clear five-subwave counts. This does not negate the possibility of a five-wave move, but it does imply that the decline might be a three-wave extension that targets $52.5 instead. Nonetheless, in either case, the wave count, whether five- or three-waves, calls for the decline to continue toward targets in the low $50s.

As a five-wave move, $57.0 is crucial because this is the smaller than (0.618) target of Wave III and connects to $53.7 as the equal to (1.00) target. The $53.7 objective is also the XC (2.764) target of Wave I and the lowest that this wave projects. The trend terminus for Wave I is $54.9, but $53.7 makes more sense for the five-wave move because falling to $53.7 would makes Waves III and V equal. This also means that $53.7 would be the most probable stalling point for a five-wave pattern. Therefore, once $53.7 is met, a three-wave correction, or more, would be expected.

As a three-wave extension, the decline from $67.79 targets $56.3 as the smaller than target and then connects to $52.5 as the equal to target. Therefore, a three-wave extension is a bit more bearish for the near-term outlook than a five-wave pattern.

Tomorrow’s early action should shed more light on the wave count. Currently, it looks like the decline is more likely a three-wave extension because the subwave down from $62.04 has taken out its smaller than target and calls for a test of its $56.3 equal to target. However, should $57.0 hold and a decent retracement takes place (along the lines of $1.50 to match the retracement from $58.47 to $59.98), the decline is probably a five-wave trend. Again, either way, there is a good chance for WTI to fall and fulfill targets in the low $50s in the coming days.

Regarding near-term resistance, look for $58.4 to likely hold. Key near-term resistance is today’s $59.5 midpoint. Settling above this will dampen near-term odds for a continued decline and call for a test of $60.2 and possibly today’s $61.3 open before the decline continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The near-term outlook for WTI crude oil tightened again today. The decline to $63.8 tested the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $63.13. More importantly, the move down took out the smaller than (0.618) target of the first subwave down from $66.4. This wave favors a test of its $63.4 equal to (1.00) target, which is also the smaller than target of the primary wave down from $67.98. Falling below $64.3 early tomorrow will call for a test of $63.4, a close below which will clear the way for $62.5 and likely $61.6. Such a move could prove to be significantly bearish for the outlook in the coming weeks because falling below $63.4 will call for a move below the 20-day moving average. Since early November this is a threshold that has been tested and held on a closing basis several times. Therefore, closing below the 20-day moving average, which should be just below $63.4 tomorrow, would likely trigger a much more significant and long overdue test of support.

With that said, the long-term outlook for WTI crude oil is undeniably bullish, and bearish setups like this have failed repeatedly during the past several weeks. Moreover, this is an extremely tight call for the next few days because the small intra-day double bottom that formed at $63.8 was confirmed by the close above the $64.67 intra-day swing high. The exact target for the double bottom is the $65.54 swing high. Overcoming $65.54 would invalidate the first subwave down from $66.4 that projects to $63.4 and clear the way for a test of $65.8 instead. This is the smaller than target of the wave up from $63.13 and connects to $67.0 and higher.

In summary, the next substantial move for WTI crude oil will likely be determined by either a close below $63.4 or above $65.8. As of this afternoon, odds lean slightly in favor of at least a test of $63.4. A move below $64.3 early tomorrow will increase those odds. However, should WTI overcome $65.54 first, odds will shift in favor of testing $65.8 instead.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil settled below $64.2 and confirmed Monday’s bearish dark cloud cover pattern. Furthermore, the primary wave down from $67.98 and subwave down from $65.98 have taken out their smaller than (0.618) targets around $63.8. Therefore, the pullback from $67.98 is poised to reach at least $63.1 and likely $62.5 tomorrow. The $62.5 target is most confluent and is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $59.24. This could prove to be a stalling point. However, a close below $62.5 will call for a test key support at $61.4.

The $61.4 target is currently most important because it is in line with the 20-day moving average. Since early November, the 20-day moving average has been tested and held on a closing basis each time WTI was poised for a bearish reversal. Therefore, closing below $61.4 will signal that a much more significant test of support is finally underway.

With that said, during the past several weeks, tests of support such as the one currently underway have failed. Therefore, it will not be surprising to see the move down stall again and rally during the latter half of the week. There is not much that calls for this before reaching $62.5, but caution is warranted. For now, though, resistance at $65.4 is expected to hold and $66.4 is key. Settling above $66.4 would imply that the move down has failed again and clear the way for $67.5 and then a push toward $69.2.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil challenged $59.5 as called for in yesterday’s daily update. The decline initially stalled at $59.45 and then rose to $61.21 before settling into a coil pattern. However, WTI broke lower out of the coil just before the settlement and has fallen to $59.38 in the post-settlement trading hours. This is significant because WTI is now trading right around the 20-day moving average. This is a level that has held on a closing basis since early November. A sustained close below the 20-day moving average will strongly imply that a significant test of support is finally underway.

Tomorrow, look for WTI to challenge $58.7. This is a bearish decision point because it is now below the 20-day moving average and is split between the larger than (1.618) target of the initial wave down from $63.81 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the newly formed primary wave down from $63.81. It is also in line with the daily bearish threshold of the Kase Trend indicator. Closing below $58.7 will call for $57.9, likely $56.9, and possibly lower during the next few days. Such a move would also be a strong indication that a major test of support is underway.

With that said, this is a week in which external factors could reinvigorate bullish sentiment. Even so, based on the way the charts and technical factors have played out during the last few days, it looks as though the market is pricing in expectations of bearish supply/demand news.

Nevertheless, should WTI crude oil rally early tomorrow look for immediate resistance at $60.3 and then crucial near-term resistance at $61.2. Rising above $61.2 will invalidate the primary wave down from $63.81 that projects to $58.7 and lower. This would also call for a test of key resistance at $62.1. Settling above this would imply that the move down has been another short-lived correction and clear the way for $62.9 likely $63.9.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil initially rose as called for today but stalled just short of the crucial $63.2 objective. This is the larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave up from the April contract’s $28.15 low. There is little doubt that the outlook for WTI is bullish in the coming months, but the move up has been due for a significant test of support for a few weeks. The challenge has been that each time WTI has formed bearish patterns or signals the follow-through has been lackluster and WTI rises to new highs shortly thereafter.

Nevertheless, today’s pullback from $63.0 has set up a bearish high wave candlestick, momentum divergence, and a wave formation that calls for a test of $60.7 early tomorrow. Falling below this will clear the way for $59.8, which will take out Monday’s $60.3 midpoint and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $58.6. Closing below $59.8 would then call for a test of Monday’s $58.9 midpoint and possibly $58.4. The $58.4 objective is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $63.0 and the bearish threshold of the daily Kase Trend indicator. Settling below $58.4 would serve as a strong warning that a much more significant test of support is finally underway.

With that said, caution is warranted because the market is still absorbing information regarding the impact of last week’s cold snap throughout Texas and the Plains states. Should WTI overcome $62.1 before taking out $60.7 look for a test of $62.6, which then connects to key resistance at $63.2. Settling above $63.2 will reaffirm a bullish near-term outlook and open the way for $64.4 and likely $65.1 during the next few days.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil rallied again today as called for in the weekly analysis and met the initial $60.8 target. A daily long-legged doji formed, but the pullback from $60.95 on the intra-day charts looks corrective. WTI is still due for a deeper test of support, but with diesel and gasoline prices looking strong again, WTI will be hard-pressed to fall. With these factors considered, near-term odds favor a continued rise and a close above $61.0 will call for a test of $61.9 and possibly $63.2 in the coming days. The $63.2 target is the next most probable stalling point because it is the larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave up from March’s $27.66 contract low.

That said, weekly and daily momentum oscillators remain overbought and the $61.0 objective is an important near-term threshold because it is the equal to (1.00) target of the primary subwave up from $35.0. Should $61.0 hold and prices fall, closing below $58.7 will complete today’s long-legged doji and closing below $57.9 will confirm the pattern. Such a move is doubtful during the next few days. Even so, this would be an early indication that a much more significant test of support is finally underway.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil rose as expected today and challenged the $58.5 target discussed in Monday’s analysis. The move up is now poised to reach a crucial bullish decision point at $59.1. This is the intermediate (1.382) target of the March contract’s primary wave up from $27.66 and the equal to (1.00) target of the largest subwave up from $46.3. Overbought weekly and daily momentum oscillators, bearish divergence setups, and today’s hanging man all warn that the move up is nearing exhaustion. Therefore, $59.1 is a probable stalling point. However, settling above $59.1 for a few days will clear the way for a test of $60.0 and eventually a push toward the uptrend’s next major objective at $63.2. The $63.2 objective is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $27.66.

As mentioned, today’s hanging man and the weekly and daily momentum oscillators warn that the move up will probably stall soon. The most probable stalling point is $59.1. However, as of this afternoon, there are no confirmed bearish patterns or signals that call for a significant test of support before reaching $59.1. Initial support at $57.7 is expected to hold tomorrow and $57.1 is key. Settling below $57.1 will confirm today’s hanging man and clear the way for a test of $56.0 and possibly lower before the uptrend fulfills the $59.1 objective.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil rose as called for in Monday’s daily update and stalled just below the $55.4 target. The move up is still poised to extend and it now looks as though the rise from $51.64 is forming a small five-wave pattern that targets $56.5. This is the XC (2.764) target of Wave 1 and the smaller than (0.618) target of Wave 3. The $56.5 target is a potential stalling point, but any pullback from that level will likely prove to be a three-wave correction. This is because the larger wave structures favor $57.6 and higher upon a sustained close above $55.5.

There are no bearish patterns or signals that call for a reversal. Even so, the daily RSI is overbought again and the KasePO, RSI, and Stochastic are setup for bearish divergence signals. To confirm these signals WTI will have to form both price and momentum peaks during the next few days, which is currently doubtful.

Nonetheless, should WTI take out $54.0 before rising much higher look for a test of key near-term support at $53.0. This is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $51.64. Settling below $53.0 would reflect a bearish shift in the external factors that have driven WTI higher during the last few days and call for a deeper test of support with thresholds at $52.2 and $51.3.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil rose to challenge $53.3 as called for in yesterday’s update. The move up stalled near this threshold and began to pull back again. So far, the move down from $53.25 has retraced just over 38 percent of the move up from $51.44. This is still not a clear call higher or lower, but based on today’s price action, odds lean in favor of testing $51.8 tomorrow. Closing below this will clear the way for $50.6, a confluent wave projection, retracement, and the target for the intra-day triple top that formed around $53.9.

Nevertheless, there is little doubt that the move down from $53.94 will prove to be corrective of the larger scale uptrend. Furthermore, because $52.56, the 38 percent retracement if the rise from $51.44, held on a closing basis there is still a good chance that the pullback from $52.35 is a simple correction of the wave formation up from $51.44. Should WTI overcome $53.3 look for a test of the $53.94 swing high. Settling above this will clear the way for $54.8 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil initially fell today but stalled at $51.81 before rising to $53.18 where the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $53.94 was challenged. Even so, this level and Friday’s midpoint held on a closing basis. Also, Friday’s bearish engulfing line and the double top around $53.9 are still intact. Therefore, odds continue to lean in favor of a deeper test of support before the move up continues. Closing below $52.3 will confirm the double top and clear the way for WTI to fall toward the pattern’s $50.6 target in the coming days.

Nevertheless, WTI’s uptrend has been resilient in recent weeks. Any recent attempt at a significant test of support has been quickly negated and any reversal patterns have been wiped out shortly after forming. Today’s move up suggests this might be another case in which overly bullish sentiment will win out over bearish fundamental and technical factors. Should WTI overcome $53.13 early tomorrow look for another attempt at $53.9. Closing above $53.9 will wipe out the double top and bearish engulfing line and clear the way for at least $54.5 and probably higher before another attempt at a significant pullback.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.