Crude Oil Price Forecast – January 19, 2021

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil initially fell today but stalled at $51.81 before rising to $53.18 where the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $53.94 was challenged. Even so, this level and Friday’s midpoint held on a closing basis. Also, Friday’s bearish engulfing line and the double top around $53.9 are still intact. Therefore, odds continue to lean in favor of a deeper test of support before the move up continues. Closing below $52.3 will confirm the double top and clear the way for WTI to fall toward the pattern’s $50.6 target in the coming days.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.35 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, WTI’s uptrend has been resilient in recent weeks. Any recent attempt at a significant test of support has been quickly negated and any reversal patterns have been wiped out shortly after forming. Today’s move up suggests this might be another case in which overly bullish sentiment will win out over bearish fundamental and technical factors. Should WTI overcome $53.13 early tomorrow look for another attempt at $53.9. Closing above $53.9 will wipe out the double top and bearish engulfing line and clear the way for at least $54.5 and probably higher before another attempt at a significant pullback.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

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