Technical Analysis Archives - Page 48 of 60

By Dean Rogers

The U.S. rig count rose by 17 last week, and according to the EIA, U.S. crude oil supplies have reached 490.7 million barrels, the highest reported level for this time of year since 1930. In addition, the U.S.’s repeal of the 40-year oil export ban could ultimately encourage more pumping from domestic crude oil producers and narrow the WTI-Brent spread closer to parity in coming weeks. This is possibly good news for domestic producers, though it will take months and perhaps years before we will truly know. Overall, it is being reported that these factors could prolong the supply glut that is projected to last through the end of 2016 and possibly beyond.

The narrowing WTI-Brent spread is a being driven by WTI’s deeper contango versus Brent. In January 2015, the two grades were trading near parity, and it looks like this will be the case again in early 2016. This is encouraging for some U.S. producers as the spread could extend into positive territory where $2.60 is a confluent projection. However, longer-term, a narrow spread would likely lead to increased U.S. production, which would be negative for WTI. Conversely, a positive spread could encourage Brent producers to cutback, thus spurring both grades higher over the course of the longer-term. The key will be seeing whether or not the spread becomes positive and remains that way for the next few months. If so, it could lead to a longer-term shift in production strategies, and ultimately prices, world-wide.

Another factor to watch right now is the calendar spreads and the cost of carry. The six-month average cost of carry narrowed a bit for WTI and Brent last week, but remains volatile. Typically, a carry above approximately ($0.50) encourages those with storage to buy oil now, store it, and then sell it at a later date when prices are higher (due to deep contango). This is fundamentally negative because supply rises. The six-month average costs of carry for WTI was ($0.93) and for Brent ($0.79) as of Friday’s settlement.

The technical agree with the negative fundamental and spread factors right now. Most momentum indicators are oversold and setup for divergence on the weekly and daily charts. Therefore, a correction might take place soon. However, until a swing low in both price and momentum are made look for the decline to continue. Over the next day or so we expect WTI to fall to $35.0 and for Brent to challenge $35.6. Both are crucial targets to connect to much lower levels as discussed in our full weekly analysis.

This is a brief analysis and outlook for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Commentary is a much more detailed and thorough energy price forecast. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

By Dean Rogers

The outlook for natural gas is still bearish, and without support from weather or a strong increase in industrial demand, it will most likely remain that way. However, there are a few positive technical setups that indicate a small correction to $1.90 and even $1.959 might take place first.

Monday’s gap down from $1.959 still needs to be filled. This might be an exhaustion gap, but at this point it is looking more like a measuring gap that projects to $1.65. Wednesday’s morning star setup indicates prices could make a push for at least $1.90 to try and confirm the pattern. The Stochastic is deeply oversold (and has been for some time) and the KasePO is setup for bullish divergence as it nears oversold territory. If Wednesday’s $1.775 low holds, there is a good chance for the daily bullish KasePO divergence to be confirmed. Confirming the divergence, and confirming the morning star setup with a close over $1.90, would boost odds for filling the $1.959 gap.

That said, longer-term odds still favor the decline and any move up will be corrective and hard pressed to overcome $1.959 without support from aforementioned external factors. Once the correction is complete (if it takes place at all), we expect prices to fall to $1.73 and $1.65.

This is a brief natural gas forecast for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary is a much more detailed and thorough analysis. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four week trial.

By Dean Rogers

The darkest hour is just before the dawn. It is a phrase that most are familiar with that provides hope, even in the worst of circumstances. The outlook for WTI crude oil prices has been “dark” in recent weeks, and the longer-term outlook is still dim. However, December 14’s close over $36.13 provides a small shimmer of hope that a correction might finally be underway.

January WTI met a confluent and structurally crucial support target near $35.0 on December 14 and closed above December 11’s $36.13 midpoint to form a bullish piercing pattern. The piercing pattern is an early indication that a sustainable correction might finally be underway. A close over the pattern’s $36.63 confirmation point (December 11’s open) would call for at least $37.9, the 38 percent retracement from $43.46 to $34.53.

The move up will most likely be corrective, but a substantial correction is long overdue. KaseX is not showing any signs of a turn yet, and the piercing pattern’s $36.63 confirmation point was tested and held. This dampens the likelihood of a reversal, but does not wipe out the potential completely. A close below $35.4 would negate the piercing pattern and call for the decline to continue towards the December 2008 perpetual swing low of $32.4.

Therefore, if the sun is going to rise $35.4 must hold and January WTI will need to close over $36.63 and then $37.9 within the next few days.

By Dean Rogers

Natural gas is still looking for support from weather, but until cold temperatures arrive in key areas of the U.S. prices should continue to grind lower. The negative bias is confirmed by KaseX’s filtered short signal (purple diamonds).

January futures met an important target at $2.15 on Wednesday. This was the 0.618 projection for the wave $2.347 – 2.175 – 2.259. A close below $2.15 would call for key support at $2.10, the 1.00 projection.

The importance of $2.15 indicates a correction might take place first, but look for resistance at $2.22 to hold. A close over $2.22 would call for $2.26 and possibly $2.30. A move higher than $2.30 is doubtful without support from weather.

By Dean Rogers

For the past few weeks gasoline futures rose in a dramatic fashion and lent some support to underlying WTI and Brent futures prices. However, a few bearish technical factors indicate the move up is probably complete and that a major test of support is now underway.

January gasoline futures stalled at the crucial 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1.4516 to $1.1962. In addition, Monday’s $1.3069 settle completed an evening star and hammer candlestick pattern and a moderately bearish overbought signal on KaseX (gray arrow). All three factors indicate the decline should continue.

The pullback has retraced 38 percent of the move up from $1.1962 to $1.3731 so far. A close below $1.2972 will confirm the evening star and hammer and call for at least $1.285 and very likely $1.264, the 50 and 62 percent retracements, respectively. These are also confluent intraday wave projections.

From a technical standpoint, the move down is corrective of the move up until there is a close below $1.264. Odds for a move of this magnitude over the next week or so are 65 percent.

Look for resistance at $1.33 to hold. A close over $1.354 would be positive and open the way for $1.412 and higher.

This is a brief analysis and outlook for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Commentary is a much more detailed and thorough energy price forecast. If you are interested, please sign up for a complimentary four week trial.

By Dean Rogers

Natural gas’s upward correction has been held at bay as the market seeks frigid temperatures to support a move higher. January is settling into the familiar range between approximately $2.26 and $2.39 that December oscillated in before it finally broke lower. This is likely where prices will remain for the rest of the week due to the Thanksgiving holiday.

The move up is corrective, and that point was verified on Wednesday when prices initially broke higher out of an intraday coil and subsequently stalled at $2.347 before overcoming the $2.351 swing high.

Meeting the 0.618 projection for the wave $2.229 – 2.351 – 2.258 indicates January could still test $2.39, which is near the 1.00 projection and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2.60 to $2.229, as long as the $2.258 swing low holds. However, without support from external factors (cold temperatures) the market will be hard pressed to rise above $2.39 and extend to the next confluence point of $2.48.

Odds favor the decline and a test of $2.26 by the end of this week. This is a tough call right now because the market is sitting on major support, and external factors could turn this market higher in a heartbeat. Therefore, provided $2.26 can hold, there is still a reasonable chance the upward correction will extend to $2.39, but at this point we would not hold our breath.

Happy Thanksgiving to all!

By Dean Rogers

As we stated last week, the natural gas call is extremely tight right now. The market can only tell us what it knows about itself, and right now the market is not sure what it knows.

The move up from $2.188 stalled at $2.398 on November 6, and since then prices have worked their way lower in an extremely choppy manner to test major support at $2.25. This level held on today’s close, so technically prices are still trading within the range.

The market is waiting on cold weather to push it higher, but today’s price action did not help short-term bulls. It will eventually get cold and prices will rise, but today’s decline to $2.25 puts odds slightly in favor (around 60 percent) of a decline to test least $2.20 and possibly $2.12 over the next few days.

That said, $2.25 is an extremely important and highly confluent wave projection and retracement that has been tested a few times and has held on a closing basis since the move up from $2.188 began on October 30. Therefore, caution is warranted, and given the circumstances, we would not be at all surprised to see $2.25 continue to hold.

From a trading strategy standpoint, this is a time that we would normally recommend sitting on the sidelines for a bit while waiting for a more concise direction and break out of the $2.25 to $2.37 range. Upon a close below $2.25 or above $2.37, a trade may be taken upon a confirming long or short signal from indicators like Kase StatWare or KaseX. Shorter bar lengths are also recommended because they will help limit risk and should be used to pinpoint entries and exits and determine stop levels until there is a close either below $2.12 or above $2.48. At that point a clear long-term trend will have been established and trades may then be scaled to longer bar lengths with wider stops.

This is a brief natural gas forecast ahead of tomorrow’s EIA report. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary is a much more detailed and thorough analysis. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four week trial.

By Dean Rogers

WTI stalled near $48.0 as we expected in our weekly Crude Oil Commentary and the sustained close below $44.7 calls for a test of key support at $43.2. This is a confluence area that is near the 0.618 projection of the wave $51.42 – 42.58 – 48.36. A close below $43.2 would confirm the negative outlook and open the way for a continued decline.

The Kase Easy Entry System (KEES) confirms the negative bias. Today’s pink dot indicates that the majority of momentum indicators are permissioned short on the daily chart and that the synthetic three-day filter is also permissioned short.

That said, the shorter intraday bar lengths are showing that the decline from $48.36 is a bit overextended, exhausted, and due for a correction. The correction will most likely take place once $43.2 is met. First resistance is $44.5. Key resistance is $45.4, the 38 percent retracement from $48.36 to $43.64. Both levels are in line with the opening prices of the last few days. A close over $45.4 would call for an extended upward correction and a likely trading range for the near-term.

This is a brief analysis and crude oil forecast for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Commentary is a much more detailed and thorough energy price forecast. If you are interested, please sign up for a complimentary four week trial.

By Cynthia Kase

The market’s been watching the impact of El Niño since June. Then the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there was a 90 percent chance the baby would stick around all summer, and maybe even into 2016. Sugar has been rising since mid-August, as El Niño persisted, but turned choppy in October only to break to 15.53¢ as of the 3^rd.

Apparently Niño’s wet weather is delaying the sugar harvest and fears have grown about undersupply. The technicals have been positive but slammed up against resistance at 15.53¢. So while it’s too soon to say if 15.53¢ is “it”, there is likely more downside.

15.53¢ is important for a few reasons. It failed by 5 points to reach the 21 percent retracement of the entire move down from 36.08¢ to 10.13¢ on the continuation chart. Second, the Stochastic and RSI momentum indicators were set up for bearish divergences at that price. Most important, 15.53¢ was a confluent target, as shown in the chart. That price is just 0.01 points shy of March’s “trend terminus” target (12.55^3/11.28^2) for the first wave up from 11.28¢.

First support was met on Wednesday at 14.64¢. Next is 14.40¢, just 7 points below Thursday’s low. This is the 21 percent retracement for continuation’s entire move up, and a confluent retracement for the intermediate swings on both charts. It is also the 0.62 projection for the wave 15.53 – 14.47 – 15.05.

The key question is whether the decline, which only reached 15.47¢ versus 15.40¢ support, is over. The fact that the bounce up from 15.47¢ formed an ABC pattern where C is the 1.62 extension of A, exactly, and that prices then declined to 14.59¢, that is, below the prior 14.64¢ swing, means probably not.

14.40¢ remains to be broken, so a continued decline is not a sure thing, but 14¢, the major threshold, is likely.

The open and midpoints of candlesticks constitute support and resistance. Last week’s midpoint was 14.37¢ and the open for the week ending October 9, the last large up week prior, was 13.92¢. There’s also an important swing at 13.94¢. So as long as this holds (the lower end of a 14¢ +/- 0.1¢ range), odds are open for the bull market to resume.

Initial resistance is 15.40¢. The decline isn’t dead unless this is overcome. Above this, a highly confluent 15.95¢, the last remaining target (the Phi^3 corrective projection) for the first wave up, and occurs as a target 10 times for the 10 waves up from mid-October’s 13.69¢ swing low. The highest price to which the March chart projects which has a moderate probability is 18¢, the 0.62 projection of the entire move up.

Send questions to askkase@kaseco.com, and click the link learn more about Cynthia Kase’s latest video series, Kase on Technical Analysis.

By Dean Rogers

Natural gas cautiously rose to $2.317 to fulfill the smaller than (0.618) projection for the wave $2.188 – 2.336 – 2.231. Typically, a move to $2.38 would now be expected because waves that meet the 0.618 projection normally extend to at least the equal to (1.00) projection. The pullback to $2.255 is a bit worrisome, but until the $2.231 swing low is taken out odds favor of a move to $2.38. This is a crucial target because $2.38 is the 38 percent retracement from $2.78 to $2.188 and makes a connection to $2.48 where last week’s gap would be filled.

KaseX warned that the decline from $2.317 would extend (yellow triangle), and as stated, support at $2.25 is already being challenged. A move below $2.231 would take out the wave up from $2.188 and its projections to $2.38 and higher. This would in turn shift odds back in favor of a decline to $2.11 to fulfill the requirements of the textbook five wave pattern down from $3.391 as discussed last week.

WTI-Brent Spread Nearing Parity

Tag: Technical Analysis