Market Forecasts and Insights
Kase Market Commentary
Samples of Kase’s energy and metals price forecasts, daily updates, market commentary, and educational perspectives on technical analysis and trading — published by Dean Rogers, CMT.
Failed Technical Pattern Calls for Brent Crude Price to Decline
Brent crude’s failure to close above the $57.5 completion point of the weekly morning star setup (circled in green) was negative and indicates the geopolitically driven move up that took place last week may be short lived. The Brent crude price rose modestly on Monday, but most short-term technical factors indicate it should test $53.1 … Continue reading Failed Technical Pattern Calls for Brent Crude Price to Decline
Midweek Natural Gas Forecast – March 25, 2015
Natural gas prices are still oscillating in the upward sloping range that began March 3 when the $2.641 swing low was made. The lower trend line of the formation, which connects back to the $2.589 contract low, was tested, but held again on Monday. Most pundits indicate the long-term fundamentals are bearish, but this begs … Continue reading Midweek Natural Gas Forecast – March 25, 2015
WTI Crude Oil Correction Poised to Extend
WTI crude oil rose for a second straight day due to the declining dollar. The long-term bias is still negative, so the move up is corrective. However, mixed fundamental and technical factors indicate the correction should extend to at least $48.2 before settling into another trading range. This is the 1.00 projection for the wave … Continue reading WTI Crude Oil Correction Poised to Extend
Midweek Natural Gas Forecast – March 18, 2015
During the calendar month of March the April natural gas futures contract has traded in a range bound between $2.64 and $2.87. Most fundamental and technical factors are still negative for the long-term. The move up at this point is still corrective and will only delay the inevitable decline that is ultimately coming. However, late … Continue reading Midweek Natural Gas Forecast – March 18, 2015
NY Harbor ULSD Futures Setup for Correction
NY Harbor ULSD futures fell to a new intraday low for the eighth session in a row, but formed a bullish morning star setup and hammer. These are bullish reversal formations, but in this case it is more likely that a subsequent move up will be a correction rather than a reversal. In addition, the … Continue reading NY Harbor ULSD Futures Setup for Correction
Technical Factors Call for Natural Gas Prices to Test $2.89
Natural gas prices are still oscillating in the corrective range between approximately $2.60 and $3.00. Early in the week it looked as though natural gas prices were ready to continue the decline. However, while there is little doubt that the long-term bias is negative, Wednesday’s price rise has called into questions how soon natural gas … Continue reading Technical Factors Call for Natural Gas Prices to Test $2.89
Gasoline Prices Poised for Decline
April gasoline prices fell for the fourth day in a row, but held support at 185.0. The bearish KaseCD divergence and underlying short permissions (red dots) indicate the decline should continue to 180.0. A normal correction will hold 180.0 because it is the 38 percent retracement of the move up from 149.64 and the 1.618 … Continue reading Gasoline Prices Poised for Decline
Midweek Natural Gas Forecast – March 4, 2015
Cold weather continues to support natural gas, but the wide sweeping frigid conditions have not been enough of an influence to drive prices higher. Fundamental and technical factors leave little doubt that the outlook for the next several months is bearish, but for now, natural gas prices are stuck in a trading range bound between … Continue reading Midweek Natural Gas Forecast – March 4, 2015
KOSPI Forecast – Korean Index Nearing End of Narrowing Range
Since late 2011 the Korean Stock Exchange (KOSPI) has oscillated in a narrowing range, now nearing its apex, which means a breakout is expected within the next quarter or two, perhaps sooner. The pattern began after 2011’s decline to 1644.11. The entire pattern could be the middle “B” wave of a downward ABC correction, or, … Continue reading KOSPI Forecast – Korean Index Nearing End of Narrowing Range
Natural Gas Prices Weak Ahead of EIA Update
Natural gas’s recent upward correction has been driven by cold weather, and still has a modest chance to extend. However, the key question that should be asked is how long will natural gas prices be able to sustain upward momentum once weather moderates? Several technical factors are already showing that the move up may be … Continue reading Natural Gas Prices Weak Ahead of EIA Update
