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Kase Market Commentary

Samples of Kase’s energy and metals price forecasts, daily updates, market commentary, and educational perspectives on technical analysis and trading — published by Dean Rogers, CMT.

Technical Failure Calls for WTI Price Decline

Posted on February 23, 2015 by Dean Rogers, CMT in Oil Price Forecast

Most technical factors now indicate that WTI’s upward correction has failed and that the near term WTI price outlook is negative again. Monday’s decline broke the lower trend line of a bullish ascending wedge. Formations like this break higher around 75 percent of the time, so failures like this do not generally bode well for … Continue reading Technical Failure Calls for WTI Price Decline

Natural Gas Trying to Extend Upward Correction

Posted on February 18, 2015 by Dean Rogers, CMT in Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas’s upward correction has stalled and is oscillating in a narrowing range centered around $2.78. This is a coil formation, which indicates that a breakout move is about to take place. The coil shows undertones of the market’s uncertainty between the balance of long-term bearish fundamentals and recent wide sweeping cold weather that has … Continue reading Natural Gas Trying to Extend Upward Correction

What Today’s Move Above $2.79 Means for Natural Gas

Posted on February 11, 2015 by Dean Rogers, CMT in Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas’ decline stalled at $2.567 on February 6. This was near the very crucial bearish decision point of $2.52. Subsequently prices have risen to $2.857. The market is likely settling into a range that is being supported by external factors (i.e. cold weather), but is searching for the upper end of this range. A … Continue reading What Today’s Move Above $2.79 Means for Natural Gas

WTI Testing Major Target at $54.0

Posted on February 09, 2015 by Dean Rogers, CMT in Oil Price Forecast

WTI crude oil is trying desperately to show that a bottom has been made and that a recovery is underway. WTI is testing a crucial decision point at $54.0. This is the 0.618 projection for the wave, $43.58 – 54.24 – 47.36. Most waves that meet the 0.618 projection extend to at least the 1.00 … Continue reading WTI Testing Major Target at $54.0

Natural Gas Negative Ahead of EIA Storage Report

Posted on February 04, 2015 by Dean Rogers, CMT in Natural Gas Price Forecast

For several weeks $2.79 was major support for natural gas. This level was tested many times, and was finally broken after last week’s bearish U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Natural Gas Weekly Update. Subsequently, prices have fallen to a $2.608 contract low, and $2.79 has become near-term resistance. The $2.79 level is the completion point … Continue reading Natural Gas Negative Ahead of EIA Storage Report

NY Harbor ULSD Futures Extend Higher

Posted on February 02, 2015 by Dean Rogers, CMT in Oil Price Forecast

NY Harbor ULSD future’s upward correction extended to 177.7 on Monday. The primary wave 158.9 – 171.7 – 160.5, met its 1.382 projection at 177.7 and is poised to extend to the 1.618 projection of 184.2. This is the decision point for an extended correction and potential recovery. Although it is too early to say … Continue reading NY Harbor ULSD Futures Extend Higher

Natural Gas Still Testing (and Holding) $2.79

Posted on January 28, 2015 by Dean Rogers, CMT in Natural Gas Price Forecast

Natural gas has positioned itself for a break out of the recent coiling pattern that began forming on January 20. March futures tested the crucial $2.79 area this morning, and most technical factors still favor continued decline. However, March’s inability to close below $2.79 is making this recent range look more like a short-term bottoming … Continue reading Natural Gas Still Testing (and Holding) $2.79

Natural Gas Outlook Negative Before EIA Data Released

Posted on January 21, 2015 by Dean Rogers, CMT in Natural Gas Price Forecast

Last week’s natural gas price rise was poised to fill December 22nd’s gap from $3.48, but the upward correction stalled at $3.352. The week settled above the $3.09 midpoint of Wednesday, January 12th’s candlestick, leading to speculation that the market might try to rise again early this week. However, Monday’s intraday gap down from $3.056 … Continue reading Natural Gas Outlook Negative Before EIA Data Released

Brent Targets $45.8 upon Close Below $47.7

Posted on January 20, 2015 by Dean Rogers, CMT in Oil Price Forecast

Brent has been trading in a corrective range for the past several days, but fell to major support at $47.7 on Tuesday. This is the 0.618 projection for the wave $52.42 – 48.07 – 50.41. The $47.7 projection connects to a major target at $45.8 as the 1.00 projection. This is also the 1.618 projection … Continue reading Brent Targets $45.8 upon Close Below $47.7

Short-Term Natural Gas Indicators Point to Upward Correction

Posted on January 14, 2015 by Dean Rogers, CMT in Oil Price Forecast

Natural gas has finally showed some signs of life over the past few days in anticipation of tomorrow’s U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Natural Gas Weekly Update. The short-term charts are showing that traders are anticipating a bullish EIA report, which would be the support the market needs to continue this upward correction. Keep in … Continue reading Short-Term Natural Gas Indicators Point to Upward Correction

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Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. no representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.