Natural Gas Price Forecast – July 3, 2024

Author: Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

August natural gas has settled below the psychologically important $2.50 level for the past few days after confirming a double top that formed around $3.21. The double top’s target is $2.00, but it is doubtful that prices will fall this low. Prices also challenged the $2.41 larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave down from $3.221 today. This is a potential stalling point and the move down is due for a correction. However, there are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to stall. Prices are also trading below all major daily moving averages, daily momentum is declining, and daily trend indicators are bearish. Therefore, the outlook remains bearish.

Tomorrow, look for a test of the $2.37 smaller than (0.618) of the wave down from $3.590. This is also a potential stalling point, so even though there are no bullish patterns or signals, there is still a reasonable chance for a correction soon. Closing below $2.37 will open the way for $2.32 and lower in the coming days.

Should prices rise before taking out $2.41 look for initial resistance at $2.48. Closing above this would call for a test of $2.52 and possibly key near-term resistance at $2.590. Settling above $2.590 would call for an extended correction where the next major threshold is the 38 percent retracement from $3.221 at $2.72.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil settled above the $82.4 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $69.22 on Monday. This was bullish for the outlook in the coming weeks because this wave now favors an eventual test of its $88.5 equal to (1.00) target. Furthermore, prior major swing high have been overcome, prices are trading above all major daily moving averages, and daily trend indicators are bullish.

The near-term outlook is also bullish but today’s shooting star warns that a test of support might take place first. The daily Stochastic is overbought and the KaseCD and MACD are set up for daily bearish divergence. Therefore, caution is warranted and the near-term odds for a continued rise have been dampened.

Closing above the $83.9 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $72.44 will call for a test of the $84.7 equal to target of the wave up from $77.35. This then connects to the next major objective and confluence point at $86.4.

Any further move down will likely be a correction. Nonetheless, closing below $82.4 will complete the shooting star and settling below $81.5 will confirm the reversal pattern. Settling below $81.5 is doubtful based on the current intra-day wave down from $84.38 though. Such a move would put the near-term odds in favor of testing $80.5 and then the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $72.44 at $79.8.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rallied and settled above the equal to (1.00) targets of the wave up from $2304.2 and $2310.9. The 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2477 and the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $2310.9 held on a closing basis. Even so, today’s rise was bullish for the outlook in the coming days and warns that the move down from $2477 might be complete.

Tomorrow, look for a test of $2387. Settling above this will call for a key objective at $2405 to be challenged. The $2405 target is split between the larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $2304.2 and 62 percent retracement from $2477. Settling above $2405 will strongly suggest that the move down is complete and that gold is readopting a firm bullish outlook.

Nonetheless, there is still a reasonable chance for the move down to extend while $2370 holds on a closing basis. Should gold fall tomorrow and take out $2351 look for a test of key support at $2333. Settling below this will put the near-term odds back in favor of testing the $2309 confirmation point of a double top that formed around $2474 a few weeks ago.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

July natural gas settled below the crucial smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $3.161 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.518 at $2.76. This was quite bearish for the outlook because the move down now favors a test of the $2.52 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $3.161. This is also the confirmation point of a double top that formed around $3.16. Settling below the $2.70 smaller than target of the wave down from $3.159 will increase the odds for a test of $2.52 in the coming days.

There are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to stall before reaching at least $2.70. Even so, should prices rise before taking out $2.70 look for today’s $2.82 midpoint to hold. Overcoming this will call for a test of key near-term resistance at $2.90.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil overcame the $80.11 swing high and settled above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $85.27. The daily Kase Trend indicator is bullish, the 10-day DMI and ADX reflect increasing bullish sentiment, and prices are trading above all major daily moving averages. These factors confirm a bullish reversal and trend.

The move up is now poised to test the $81.4 smaller than (0.618) target of the largest wave up from $72.44. Closing above this will call for a longer-term bullish decision point at $82.4, which is the smaller than target of the wave up from $69.22, to be challenged.

The move up is due for a correction. Overbought daily KaseCD and Stochastic oscillators warn that such a move might take place soon. Even so, there are no bearish patterns or confirmed signals that call for the move up to stall. Furthermore, any move down will likely be a correction.

Should prices turn lower tomorrow, look for initial support at $79.9 and key near-term support at $79.0. Settling below $79.0 will call for a deeper test of support where $77.6 is most important.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold fell to nearly challenge the $2308.7 confirmation point of a double top that formed around $2474 a few weeks ago again. Prices have settled below the smaller than (0.618) targets of the waves down from $2477 and $2358.8. Therefore, the move down should now extend to these waves’ respective $2261 and $2303 equal to (1.00) targets. Such a move will take out the $2308.7 swing low, a close below which will confirm the double top that would then target $2143.

Tomorrow, look for a test of the $2296 smaller than target of the wave down from $2406.7. This wave also connects to $2261 as the equal to target. The $2261 level is crucial because it is also a highly confluent retracement level that lines up with the 100-day moving average. Therefore, a corrective test of resistance is anticipated before sustaining a close below $2261.

Should the move down stall again and prices rise tomorrow look for initial resistance at $2345. Closing above this would call for another attempt to overcome key near-term resistance at $2368.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

The outlook for natural gas in the coming weeks is bullish after settling above a crucial $3.08 resistance level on Tuesday. However, a double top has formed at $3.16 and today’s pullback shaped a daily bearish dark cloud cover candlestick reversal pattern. The $2.99 confirmation point of the dark cloud cover held, so the move down from $3.159 might be another short-lived correction. Nevertheless, the double top and dark cloud cover indicate a deeper test of support will probably take place during the next day or so before the move up extends.

Tomorrow, look for a test of $2.99, a move below which will call for $2.91. A simple correction should hold $2.91 because this is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $3.159 and 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.518. Settling below $2.91 would call for an extended correction to challenge $2.84 and possibly a key objective at $2.76.

That said, should prices rally back above $3.09 look for a test of $3.18. Settling above $3.18 would negate the $3.16 double top and today’s dark cloud cover. This would shift the near-term odds back in favor of natural gas rising to $3.23 and higher in the coming days.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil rose to test $78.3 as called for but held the 100-day moving average, which is now $78.4. The near-term outlook remains bullish because of a sustained close above crucial resistance at $77.6 for the past couple of days. However, today’s lackluster follow-through after Monday’s rally dampens the odds for a continued rise tomorrow and warns that a test of support might take place first.

Closing above $78.4 will open the way for a test of $79.3 and then $80.0. Settling above $80.0 will call for the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $86.16 at $80.9 to be challenged.

The intra-day wave structure up from $72.48 is also due for a test of support, so this also suggests that a correction might take place before the move up extends. Taking out initial support at $77.1 will call for a test of Monday’s $76.5 midpoint. Falling below $76.5 would call for a test of key near-term support at $75.4. Settling below $75.4 would imply that the move up is failing.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold could not close below the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $2308.7 at $2346 after testing and holding the $2336 XC (2.764) projection of the prior primary wave down from $2477. Prices have risen for the past couple of days and have broken higher out of a period of consolidation. Today’s close above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2477 and the $2375.5 confirmation point of a $2335 double bottom warns that the move down might be complete. This move up also suggests that gold will fail to confirm a double top around $2474 by closing below the $2308.7 swing low.

Tomorrow, look for a test of $2408, a close above which will call for $2420. The $2420 objective is split between the $2417 target of the double bottom and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2477 at $2423. Settling above $2420 would provide more evidence that the move down is complete. This would also call for a test of the $2439 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2308.7 in the coming days.

Should prices turn lower again and take out $2373 look for a test of $2359 and possibly another attempt to take out $2346. Settling below $2346 would shift near-term odds back in favor of gold falling to $2327 and eventually $2309.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas may be consolidating into a range after testing and holding major support at $2.52 late last week. Prices have aggressively swung higher and lower for the past few days. These swings reflect near-term uncertainty. Thus the likelihood of a period of consolidation as traders await more information to definitively push prices higher or lower.

Nevertheless, today’s move up fulfilled the $2.77 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2.518. This level is also the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $3.161. The $2.77 level held on a closing basis, but most waves that meet the smaller than target extend to fulfill at least the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $2.88. Therefore, during the next day or so odds favor a move above the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $3.161 at $2.84 to test at least $2.88.

That said, so far this week, each day that prices have been poised to rise or fall a move in the opposite direction has taken place the next day. Therefore, caution is warranted. Should prices fall again and take out $2.69 look for a test of the $2.63 smaller than target of the wave down from $2.829. Settling below this will put the near-term odds in favor of testing $2.59 and likely the $2.52 level again.