Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast
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July Brent crude oil has continued to work its way higher after fulfilling and holding the $97.0 target of a confirmed $115.0 double top, the 50 percent retracement from $76.82, the 62 percent retracement from $83.44, and the 20-day moving average on a closing basis last week. Prices settled above the equal to (1.00) projection of the intraday wave up from $96.03 today, but also held the 62 percent retracement from $115.30 at $107.9 on a closing basis. This is a potential stalling point, and the 10-day DMI and ADX continue to reflect a neutral range. Even so, there are no bearish patterns or signals that call for the move up to stall. Additionally, settling above the $107.4 equal to target of the wave up from $96.03 indicates that a test of this wave’s $110.7 intermediate (1.382) target and possibly the $112.5 larger than (1.618) target will occur within the next few days. Settling above $112.5 will call for a test of the $115.7 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $83.44, a close above which will confirm a continued rise for July Brent crude oil.
Nevertheless, because the 62 percent retracement from $115.30 at $107.9 held on a closing basis, there is still a modest chance for a deeper test of support or for prices to at least consolidate. However, prices must settle below the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $96.03 and the 20-day moving average around $101.0 to put the near-term odds in favor of challenging a bearish decision point at $96.5. The $96.5 level is the smaller than target of the current wave down from $115.30 and will be in line with the crucial 50-day moving average within the next few days.
