Diesel Price Forecast – May 12, 2026

Category: Diesel Price Forecast

Diesel Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast is a much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. Daily updates are included. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

June diesel rose to test and hold the 89 percent retracement of the decline from $4.2549, the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $3.5825, and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $3.8664 at $4.18 on a closing basis again. This has been a strong level of resistance for the past week, and there is potential for a triple top around $4.18 to form. Even so, prices settled just below this area, and prices are challenging $4.18 late this afternoon. The outlook for the next few days remains bullish, and a move above $4.18 to test the $4.237 smaller than target of the wave up from $3.1701 and the primary wave up from $3.5538 is favored. Closing above this will clear the way for a new contract high of at least $4.317 and likely $4.424 in the coming days.

Nevertheless, the 10-day DMI and ADX and the daily Kase Trend indicator are neutral. Moreover, the potential formation of a triple top warns that another test of support and more range-bound trading might occur instead. Diesel must settle below $3.866 to confirm the triple top. This is currently doubtful, but taking out $4.049 and settling below $3.942 will clear the way for a test of $3.866. Closing below $3.866 will confirm the triple top and call for a move to take out the $3.748 smaller than target of the wave down from $4.2549 to reach the triple top’s $3.564 target. Note that this is a key threshold that is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $3.1701 that held on a closing basis when prices fell to the $3.5538 swing low.

NY Harbor ULSD Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Diesel settled below the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.6411, the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2.5534, the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $2.1958, and the 50-day moving average today. This was bearish for the outlook and strongly implies that diesel has adopted a bearish outlook for the coming weeks because the wave down from $2.6411 now favors an eventual test of its $2.108 equal to target.

Tomorrow, look for a test of the 89 percent retracement at $2.231. This is also a confluent projection for the intraday waves down from $2.4647. Closing below $2.231 will call for the $2.195 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $2.5534 and then a test of the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1.8937 at $2.179. Settling below $2.179 will confirm a bearish outlook for the coming weeks and clear the way for $2.149 and $2.108.

Daily trend indicators are now bearish, and there are no bullish patterns or confirmed signals that call for the move down to stall. The daily Stochastic is oversold but can remain that way for an extended period. The daily KasePO, KaseCD, and RSI are not oversold yet and must take out the $2.1958 swing low to possibly set up bullish divergences (provided momentum does not fall to new lows too). Nevertheless, should prices rally and overcome $2.305, look for a test of key near-term resistance at $2.350.