Brent Crude Forecast: Poised to Test 2015 Low

By Dean Rogers

The world’s supply of crude oil continues to outpace demand, and consequently the global supply glut is being forecast through 2016. WTI fell to its lowest level in over six years last week and Brent is inching its way closer to testing the $45.19 low made on January 13, 2015. A move below this would be the lowest price at which Brent has traded at in over six years.

Structurally, the market is overdue for a correction and Brent’s daily morning star setup, a bullish candlestick pattern, warns that such a correction might take place soon. The decline’s momentum is also weakening, and there are daily and weekly divergence setups for Brent.

Brent and products attempted to stabilize and even rise in a corrective manner last week, but the move stalled. On Friday Brent crude broke lower out of the intraday coil shown below on the $0.50 Kase Bar chart.

brent crude

The break lower out of the coil indicates the decline should continue. The waves projections down from $55.0 (green), $51.69 (light blue), and $50.83 (blue) call for at least $47.9. This is a confluent wave projection that connects to $46.9 and finally $45.5.

The move down is becoming a grind, but until Brent crude can close over at least $49.9, look for the move down to extend. A close over $49.9 would at least create the potential for an extended upward correction.

This is a brief analysis and outlook for the near-term. Our weekly Crude Oil Commentary is a much more detailed and thorough energy price forecast. If you are interested, please sign up for a complimentary four week trial.

By Dean Rogers

Crude oil has taken on a strong bearish tone. There is very little technical evidence, and even less fundamental evidence, that the decline is going to end. However, it is almost always darkest before dawn and there are a few factors that show a correction should take place soon.

Last week’s update discussed major support at $47.0 for WTI and September Brent crude oil is quickly approaching major technical support at $52.8. This is the 1.618 projection for $71.37 – 62.3 – 62.49, the 0.618 projection for $67.49 – 55.6 – 59.9, and the lower Bollinger Band. The KasePO, shown in the middle panel of the chart above, and KaseCD, in the bottom panel, are setup for divergence and nearly in oversold territory. These factors indicate $52.8 is a potential stalling point and that a correction might take place before the decline continues to the next targets.

Brent

A normal correction will hold $55.6, the 38 percent retracement from $59.9. Key resistance is $57.2, the 62 percent retracement. We expect $55.6 to hold before the next leg lower takes place.

This is a brief analysis and outlook for the near-term. Our weekly Crude Oil Commentary is a much more detailed and thorough energy price forecast. If you are interested, please sign up for a complimentary four week trial.

The WTI-Brent spread has been fluctuating in a range for the past few weeks after narrowing to an intraday high of (3.34) on April 15. The narrowing spread has supported rising WTI and Brent price, and the wave formations indicate the spread will most likely continue to narrow. However, it must overcome (5.50) to make the connection to a (4.30) decision point. A close over (4.30) would open the way for a confluent (2.30) target, which connects to (1.30). That said, a close below (8.40) would call for the spread to wide again to at least (10.3).

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WTI-Brent Spread

Brent crude oil prices will likely test a key decision point at $68.0 this week. This is the 1.00 projection for the wave up from $50.1, and a confluent projection for the sub-waves up from $53.63. A close over $68.0 would confirm that a long-term bullish recovery is underway. Narrowing calendar spreads support the move up, but are still wide by historic standards. First class long permissions (blue dots) on the KEES indicator also confirm the positive tone.

That said, momentum is waning on the KaseCD and is setup for a bearish divergence (higher high in price with lower high in momentum). The KasePO is quickly nearing overbought territory. There are also a daily bearish hanging man and evening star setup. These and a few other negative factors tell us that Brent will likely stall at $68.0. We expect to see a significant correction take place to test the mettle of the market before the move up extends much higher than $68.0.

To learn more, take a trial of Kase’s weekly crude oil forecast.

Brent Crude

The WTI-Brent spread narrowed to ($5.81) on Monday and will likely continue to narrow over the next few days as it approaches a key threshold at ($4.40). This is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1.01 to ($13.13). The narrowing spread is currently a result of strengthening WTI prices and a weaker outlook for Brent. Ultimately, weaker Brent prices and a narrow spread could put another wave of downward pressure on both WTI and Brent. It will likely take at least a few more days, but look for the spread to stall near ($4.40).

Take a trial of Kase’s Weekly Crude Oil Price Forecasts.

WTI-Brent Spread

Brent crude’s failure to close above the $57.5 completion point of the weekly morning star setup (circled in green) was negative and indicates the geopolitically driven move up that took place last week may be short lived. The Brent crude price rose modestly on Monday, but most short-term technical factors indicate it should test $53.1 again. A close below this would call for $49.2, which is the last target protecting the $48.95 contract low.

Look for resistance at $57.5 and $60.05. A close over the latter would open the way for the $63.66 swing high to be challenged.

Take a trial of Kase’s weekly WTI and Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast.

Brent Crude Prices

Brent has been trading in a corrective range for the past several days, but fell to major support at $47.7 on Tuesday. This is the 0.618 projection for the wave $52.42 – 48.07 – 50.41. The $47.7 projection connects to a major target at $45.8 as the 1.00 projection. This is also the 1.618 projection for the largest and most important wave down from the $111.38 contract high. KaseX confirms the negative call with confirmed short signals (purple triangles) on the 120-minute equivalent Kase Bar chart.

For more information about KaseX please visit our trading indicators page. The learn about our forecasts please visit our energy forecasts page.

Brent

Coming into this week there was an outside chance that Brent would hold $67.0. However, prices settled below $67.0 on Monday. There is immediate support at $65.2 as discussed in this week’s Crude Oil Commentary, but the decline is now poised for at least $62.8 and likely $58.5 before a measurable retracement takes place. The key target is $58.5 because it is the most confluent wave projection and the equal to (1.00) target for the wave $112.59 – 83.41 – 88.42. A sustained close below this will open the way for $53.8 and $48.7.

There is very little evidence that the move down is going to end at this time. Prices are still deeply oversold and overdue for a correction, but until at least initial resistance at $70.5 is overcome, the move down is favored. Next resistance is $72.1, and a close over the this would call for and an extended correction to $75.1 and possibly $79.8.

For detailed weekly forecasts take a trial of our energy commentaries.

brent


The WTI-Brent spread narrowed last week, but the move looks corrective. The spread will likely oscillate for the near-term, but ultimately odds favor a widening spread. The first target is (5.00), and a close below this would call for (6.50) and (9.00). Key long-term support is (11.80). This is a confluent wave projection and the 62 percent retracement from (19.38) to (0.01). Resistance at (0.90) should hold. A sustained close over (0.90) would open the way for 1.30 and 2.90.

For more information and to take a trial of Kase’s weekly energy forecasts please visit the Energy Price Forecasts page.

WTI-Brent




This is the fourth of a four part series on Kase Wave Analysis. In this video Kase’s senior analyst, Dean Rogers, shows how the Kase Wave Analysis can be combined with other technical factors and indicators to make trading decisions.

http://youtu.be/3JcHjdr2QWM