WTI Crude Oil Short-Term Price Forecast
WTI crude oil continues to trade in a choppy range that is bound within the upper half of the Bollinger Bands. A Bollinger squeeze trade setup in place, and because prices are trading above the 20-day moving average there is a good chance for a break higher out of the seven week-long upward sloping trading range. However, many bearish technical factors continue to call for a break lower out of the range and for a deeper correction before the move up ultimately continues.
In addition, today’s wave structure suggests that WTI will fall to challenge at least $42.3 early tomorrow. This is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $43.29 and the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $41.33. Taking out $42.3 will call for a test of key near-term support at $41.8. This is the larger than target (1.618) of the wave down from $43.29, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $43.68, and is in line with the 20-day moving average.
Based on recent trading patterns, settling below $41.8 may be a challenge, but this would clear the way for a test of $40.6. This is near the equal to target of the wave down from $43.68, the 50-day moving average, and the lower Bollinger band. Settling below $40.6 would confirm a break lower out of the trading range and clear the way for a much more significant test of support before the move up continues.
Nevertheless, should $42.3 hold early tomorrow there is still a good chance for a test of crucial resistance at $43.5. This is just above the upper Bollinger band and is in line with the 200-day moving average. Settling above $43.5 would call for $44.2, which then connects to $44.7 and $46.1.
Brent Crude Oil Short-Term Price Forecast
Brent crude oil is trading in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands, so there is still a good chance for a break higher out of the recent trading range. However, the wave formation for the past few days call for a test of $44.4 first. This is an important wave projection and retracement that is also in line with the 20-day moving average. Settling below $44.4 will call for a test of $43.8 and possibly $43.1. The $43.1 target is in line with the bottom Bollinger band and the 50-day moving average. Closing below this would call for a much more significant test of support before the move up ultimately continues.
Conversely, should $44.4 hold, look for a test of $45.7. This is near the upper Bollinger band. Settling above $45.7 would confirm a break higher and call for $46.4 and then $46.9. The latter level is in line with the 200-day moving average and is the barrier for a much more bullish outlook in the coming weeks.
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