The December 2020 gold futures contract finally settled above the crucial $2050 target today. This is bullish for the near-term outlook and clears the way for at least $2091 and possibly $2130. These are the next potential stalling points because they are the larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave up from $1690.1 and the intermediate (1.382) target of the primary wave up from $1458.8, respectively.
Gold – Daily Candlesticks with RSI and KasePO Momentum Oscillators
The daily RSI and KasePO momentum oscillators are overbought. Otherwise, there are no confirmed bearish reversal patterns, signals, or setups that call for the move up to stall before reaching at least $2091.
Nevertheless, should gold fall below $2049 look for a test of $2021. This is the 38 percent retracement of the move up from the last major intra-day swing low of $1927.5. Support at $2021 is expected to hold. Settling below this will call for a deeper test of support where $1990, the 62 percent retracement, is most important for the near-term outlook.
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
Natural Gas Near-Term Oulook
The outlook for natural gas has taken on a much more bullish tone after breaking higher out of the months-long trading range between nominally $1.60 and $1.93 on Monday. The move up stalled at $2.261 today but is still poised to challenge $2.30. This is the most confluent wave projection and a crucial objective for September’s primary wave up from $1.583 and the continuation charts primary wave up from $1.432. Settling above $2.30 may initially be a challenge but will clear the way for $2.37 and likely $2.44.
Natural Gas – $0.03 Kase Bar Chart
Nevertheless, the pullback after reaching $2.261 formed a long upper shadow on the daily candlestick. The body of today’s candlestick is too big to form a shooting star, but the long upper shadow suggests the move up may be nearing exhaustion. Several daily momentum oscillators are also sitting just below overbought territory. Therefore, a significant test of support may take place soon; most likely once the $2.30 objective is fulfilled.
The move down from $2.261 this afternoon has been choppy and is most likely corrective. Even so, there is a reasonable chance for this correction to challenge $2.13 early tomorrow. Support at $2.13 is expected to hold. A move below this will call for key near-term support at $2.03. This is the lowest the first wave down from $2.261 projection and is the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $1.646. Settling below $2.03 is doubtful but would significantly dampen odds for a continued rise to $2.30 and higher during the next few days.
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast
The near-term outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish again after today’s move up overcame the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $42.51 and the $41.93 swing high. Most importantly, WTI challenged the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $37.32. Waves that meet their smaller than target typically extend to their equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $44.0. Therefore, odds now favor a continued rise toward $44.0, which is also the 200-day moving average. Once $44.0 is met another test of support is anticipated.
WTI Crude Oil – $0.50 Kase Bar Chart
Nevertheless, the $42.0 area is a highly confluent technical objective. Therefore, WTI should test support early tomorrow. There is immediate support at $41.4, but the more important level is $40.8. This is the 38 percent retracement of the move up from $38.72 and is expected to hold.
Falling below $40.8 will call for a test of key support at $39.9. This is split between the 62 percent retracement and the smaller than target of the wave own form $42.51. For the move up to extend to $44.0 during the next few days as expected $39.9 must hold. Closing below this will clear the way for $39.0 and likely $38.3.
Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast
Brent crude oil is poised to reach $45.0. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $39.94 and the equal to (1.00) target of the first wave up from $41.72. This is a potential stalling point because it is also in line with the $45.07 swing high. Nonetheless, based on larger waves, once $45.0 is met odds will favor an eventual move to $46.9 before another major test of support.
Immediate support for tomorrow is $44.2 and then $43.7. The latter is expected to hold. Key support is $42.9. This is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $41.72 and the smaller than target of the wave down from $45.07. Closing below $42.9 will shift near-term odds back in favor of a deeper test of support before the move up continues.
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial
Gold Price Forecast
The long-term outlook for gold remains bullish. However, August gold futures formed a double top at yesterday’s $1974.9 swing high. Gold had also formed daily high wave candlesticks (or long-legged dojis) earlier in the week that implied the move up was nearing exhaustion. Today’s bearish engulfing line, a KCDpeak, and a KasePO PeakOut (confirmed overbought momentum oscillator signals) call for a test of $1929 and likely $1900 before the move up continues.
Gold – $10 Kase Bar with Double Top
The $1929 objective is the 62 percent retracement of the
rise from $1900.2. This target was tested and held today when gold fell to
$1930.0. Therefore, it may prove to be strong support.
The $1900 target is in line with the $1900.2 confirmation
point of the double top. Settling below $1900 will confirm a larger reversal is
underway and would call for a deeper correction to $1859 and possibly to the
double top’s $1826 target ($1900.2 – ($1974.8 – $1900.2)).
Nonetheless, the move down is most likely corrective because
ultimately the larger scale waves, sub-waves, and compound waves up from
$1454.8 call for $2003. Should gold hold $1929 and overcome $1958 look for a
test of $1976. Closing above this will call for gold to reach $2003 before
possibly stalling again.
This is a brief
analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates
are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX
precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold,
the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more,
please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
Natural Gas Price Forecast
September natural gas settled above the crucial $1.90 level
today. This was the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary waves up from
$1.583 and $1.646. Most importantly, $1.90 has been near the top of the trading
range on the continuation chart since mid-May and was the smaller than target
of the wave up from $1.432.
Closing above $1.90 was bullish for the near-term outlook and calls for prices to challenge $2.00 and possibly $2.07. For September $2.00 is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $1.646 and $2.07 is the equal to target of the larger wave up from $1.583. Therefore, September’s wave formation calls for prices to eventually reach $2.07. However, $2.00 is a psychologically important threshold that is in line with the 200-day moving average on the continuation chart. Therefore, natural gas will likely be hard-pressed to overcome $2.00 during the next few days and perhaps even the next several weeks.
Natural Gas – $0.02 KaseBar Chart
Also, with August expiring at $1.854 today prompt month
prices may be drawn down to close the rollover gap before rising much higher.
Nevertheless, there are no confirmed patterns or signals
that call for the move up to stall before reaching at least $1.95 and likely
$2.00.
Should natural gas turn lower early tomorrow, look for
initial support at $1.88 and then $1.83. These are the 21 and 38 percent
retracements of the move up from $1.646. At $1.83 the rollover gap up from
$1.854 will be filled. Therefore, this level is expected to hold. Closing below
$1.83 will provide more evidence that prices are still trading in a wide range
between nominally $1.60 and $1.90 for the interim.
This is a brief
analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily
updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key
natural gas futures contracts, calendar
spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested
in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast
The long-term outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish. However,
WTI continues to trade in a very erratic and indecisive manner in the
near-term. The move up looks exhausted and some technical patterns and signals
suggest a sizable test of support should take place before the move up
continues. However, as prices have risen to new highs prior swing lows have
held. This is the most basic definition of an uptrend. Also, the 21-day moving
average continues to hold on a closing basis.
Realistically, the near-term outlook for WTI is neutral. Even so, today’s decline shifts odds nominally in favor of a test of $40.5 and possibly $39.9 tomorrow. These are the smaller than (0.618) and equal to (1.00) targets of the compound wave down from $42.51, respectively. Closing below $40.5 will also take out the 21-day moving average and a close below $39.9 will take out the last swing low of $39.97. This will also increase odds for a deeper correction to $39.2 and possibly $38.6 during the next few days.
WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart
Conversely, each time WTI has looked as though it will break
lower prices have turned higher and risen to a modest new high shortly
thereafter. Therefore, caution is warranted. Resistance at $41.9 is expected to
hold. A move above this would invalidate the wave down from $42.51 that
projects to $40.5 and lower. This would also call for WTI to rise to a new high
of at least $42.8 before another major test of support takes place.
Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast
Brent’s near-term outlook leans neutral-to-negative and the
move down is poised to challenge at least $43.0. Closing below this will call
for $42.1 and possibly lower.
Nevertheless, the 21-day moving average held again today and
the move down has been extremely choppy. Therefore, the decline is most likely
corrective. Should Brent overcome the $44.34 intra-day swing high look for the
move up to extend to $45.3 before another significant test of support takes
place.
This is a brief
analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily
updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover
WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in
learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
Gold Price Forecast
Gold’s move up finally accelerated this week after breaking
higher out of a rectangle pattern on June 30 and then a throwback to test the
$1790 breakout point on July 14. The move up has easily overcome targets around
$1840 and $1871 this week but stalled this afternoon near $1898. Based on the
wave structure, $1898 is a relatively minor target, and odds still favor a move
above this to the next major objective at $1912. The $1912 objective is most
important because it is the intermediate target of the first wave up from
$1694.9 and is in line with the rectangle’s $1909.6 target ($1789 + ($1789 –
$1668.4) = $1909.6). Therefore, once $1912 is met another modest test of
support is expected before the move up continues.
Gold Targets $1912
There are no confirmed bearish reversal patterns or signals
that call for a major test of support before reaching $1912. Nevertheless, the
daily RSI and KasePO momentum oscillators have risen into overbought territory.
This warns that a test of support will probably take place soon and suggests
that $1912 will hold, at least initially.
The small move down from the $1898 confluence point also
warns that a small test of support might take place before gold reaches $1912.
Support at $1872 is expected to hold and $1853 is key for the near-term.
Settling below $1853 would call for $1831 and possibly $1808 before gold rises
toward $1912 again.
This is a brief
analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates
are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX
precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold,
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please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
Natural Gas Price Forecast
Natural gas rallied again today after falling to $1.622 in early trading hours. The subsequent move up met the $1.698 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $1.605. This wave is now poised to reach its $1.73 intermediate (1.382) target tomorrow. This is also the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $1.924 and is in line with the 21-day moving average. Closing above $1.73 would imply that support around $1.60 will continue to hold and that prices are settling into a wide trading range between nominally $1.60 and $1.86 for the interim.
Natural Gas – $0.02 KaseBar Chart
Nevertheless, the move up may still be corrective, and until
at least $1.73 is overcome there is still a reasonable chance for the move down
to extend. For now, though, support at $1.64, the 62 percent retracement of the
rise from $1.605, is expected to hold. Falling below this will call for another
attempt at $1.59. Settling below $1.59 would confirm a break below the critical
$1.60 level and shift near-term odds in favor of $1.51 and possibly lower
before the August contract expires on July 29.
This is a brief
analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily
updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key
natural gas futures contracts, calendar
spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested
in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast
Today’s move up was bullish for the outlook of WTI crude
oil. The August contract settled above $41.2 and September closed above $41.5.
This finally confirmed a break higher out of a weeks-long narrowing trading
range and clears the way for the next leg of the move up toward at least $42.6,
likely $43.5, and possibly $44.3 during the next few days.
The $42.6 objective is the equal to (1.00) target of the
primary wave up from $37.32. Today’s move up stalled just below $42.6, so
settling above this will clear the way for $43.5. This is a moderately
confluent wave projection and, most importantly, is in line with the 200-day
moving average on the continuation chart. Therefore, $43.5 may be a stalling
point.
Nonetheless, based on September’s wave formation, once September WTI settles above $42.6 there is a good chance for $44.3. This is the intermediate (1.382) target and is also in line with September’s 200-day moving average.
WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart
Either way, there is a lot of important resistance between
$43.5 and $44.3. Therefore, another reasonably significant test of support is expected
before WTI settles above $44.3.
There is also a good chance for a test of $40.8 early
tomorrow before the move up continues. This is because today’s long upper
shadow suggests traders remain hesitant to keep risk on overnight. This move
down from $42.51 was likely profit-taking but formed a wave that projects to
$40.8 as the larger than (1.618) target. This is also today’s open. Support at
$40.8 must hold for the move up to extend above $42.6 during the next few days.
Falling below $40.8 will call for key near-term support at $39.9. Settling
below $39.9 would shift near-term odds in favor of $39.3 and possibly $38.2.
Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast
Brent finally settled above $43.9 and broke higher out of
its recent trading range. The move up is poised to reach $45.0, a close above
which would call for $45.7 and likely $46.4. The $46.4 objective is the most
confluent wave projection. Therefore, another small test of support is expected
once $46.4 is met.
The decline at the end of the day formed a long upper shadow
on the daily candlestick. This was likely profit-taking but suggests traders
remain nervous about the prospects for a larger move up in the coming days.
There is also a small wave down from $44.89 that projects to $43.2. This is in
line with today’s open and is expected to hold. Key support is $42.3, a close
below which would call for $41.7 and likely $40.7.
This is a brief
analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily
updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover
WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in
learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
Gold Price Forecast
Gold’s move up has been lackluster after breaking higher out of a rectangle pattern on June 30. The move up fulfilled an important target at $1820, but since then, a throwback to test the breakout point of the rectangle around $1790 has taken place. Throwbacks are common and on Tuesday the correction down from the $1829.8 swing high stalled at $1971.1. However, the subsequent move back up stalled at $1819.5 and today’s price action fulfilled the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $1829.8. Therefore, near-term odds favor a test of at least $1781 and possibly $1767 before the move up continues. There are the equal to (1.00) and intermediate (1.382) targets of the wave down from $1829.8, respectively.
Gold – Daily Candlesticks with Kase Trend and the Kase Easy Entry System (KEES)
Support at $1767 is also in line with the 38 percent
retracement of the rise from $1671.1. This target is expected to hold. Settling
below $1767 will significantly dampen odds for a continued rise to target above
$1820 during the next few weeks. This will also clear the way for $1753 and
possibly a test of key lower support at $1732.
Conversely, the long-term outlook remains bullish, so once $1781 is met odds for another test of $1820 will begin to increase. Settling above $1820 will open the way for the next leg of the move up to $1837 and higher.
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial
