Natural Gas Price Forecast – March 20, 2024

Tag: Price Forecasting

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas is stuck in a trading range between $1.64 and $1.77. Prices failed to test the top of the range and the $1.78 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $1.643 after settling above this wave’s $1.73 smaller than (0.618) target Tuesday. Instead, April natural gas fell to test the $1.69 smaller than target of the wave down from $1.774. This is also the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1.646. The $1.69 target held on a closing basis, but meeting this objective has put near-term odds in favor of testing the $1.64 equal to target of the wave down from $1.774. Taking out $1.67 will increase the odds for such a move. Closing below $1.64 will confirm a bearish outlook for the coming days and open the way for a new April natural gas contract low of at least $1.59.

Nevertheless, this is still a very tight call for the near-term because $1.69 held on a closing basis. Should prices rise above $1.74 early tomorrow look for another attempt to test and overcome $1.78. Settling above $1.78 will confirm a break higher out of the range and the double bottom that formed around $1.643. Such a move will shift odds in favor of challenging $1.83 and higher in the coming days.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil’s move up has been due for a correction. Today’s close below Monday’s midpoint and the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $76.43 and the confirmation of a daily bearish MACD divergence indicates such a move is underway. Tomorrow, look for a test of $80.6. This is Monday’s open and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $76.43. Settling below $80.6 will clear the way for a deeper test of support with important targets at $80.1 and $79.0.

With that said, the move down is likely a correction. Should WTI rally again and close back above $82.2 there is a good chance that the corrective move down is complete. Closing above $83.1, the 89 percent retracement of the decline from $84.87, will confirm this is the case and put near-term odds back in favor of WTI crude oil reaching $83.7 and higher.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

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Gold continued to rise as expected and overcame the $2171.5 April contract high. The $2171.5 swing high, which is in line with the equal to (1.00) target of the first wave up from $1861.7, held on a closing basis though. Therefore, there is potential for a double top between the $2171.5 and $2172.2 swing highs. Daily momentum oscillators are overbought and the move up is due for a test of support.

However, there are no confirmed patterns or signals that call for a reversal. Therefore, the outlook remains bullish and overcoming $2180 will call for a test of the next major objective and probable stalling point at $2190. The $2190 objective is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $1861.7 and the equal to target of the wave up from $1975.1. A solid test of support is anticipated before sustaining a close above $2190.

Given the potential for a double top and overbought daily momentum oscillators, the odds for a test of support in the coming days have risen. Even so, any move down will likely be a correction and should hold $2135. Settling below $2135 would shift near-term odds in favor of a deeper test of support before the move up continues.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

April natural gas is struggling to settle above a confluent and important target at $1.96. This is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $1.600 and the larger than (1.618) target of the first subwave up from $1.683. This target has held on a closing basis for the past few days. The pullback from $2.009 warns that a test of $1.90 will probably take place before the move up extends. Even so, the move down will likely prove to be a simple correction and should hold $1.900. The near-term outlook for natural gas remains bullish and closing above $1.960 will call for another test of $2.00 and likely a push to challenge $2.03 and then the $2.07 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $1.600.

With that said, should the corrective pullback from $2.009 take out $1.90 look for a test of key near-term support at $1.85. This is the larger than target of the wave down from $2.009 and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $1.600. A normal correction should hold $1.85. Closing below this would shift the near-term odds in favor of a more substantial test of support where $1.76, the XC (2.764) projection and 62 percent retracement, is most important. Settling below $1.76 would reflect a bearish shift in sentiment and imply that the move up is complete.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil continued to fall as called for today and settled below the confirmation point of Monday’s bearish dark cloud cover. The new primary wave down from $80.85 is poised to test its $77.3 smaller than (0.618) target. This objective is in line with the 20-day moving average and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $71.49. Settling below $77.3 might initially prove to be a challenge given its confluence but would open the way for a test of the $76.2 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $80.85. This has become the most important level of support for the near-term outlook because $76.2 is also the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $71.49 and the 38 percent retracement from $68.57.

Nevertheless, the move down is likely a correction because all major prior swing lows have held and WTI is still trading above all major daily moving averages. The daily Kase Trend indicator is also bullish. Should WTI rise tomorrow look for initial resistance at $79.0. This is the smaller than target of the wave up from $77.52 and connects to key near-term resistance at $79.7 as the equal to target. The $79.7 level is also near the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $80.85. Therefore, closing above $79.7 would imply that the corrective move down is complete and put near-term odds in favor of retesting major resistance around $80.5.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI rose as called for and settled above the $77.4 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $69.56. This wave now favors a test of its $81.3 equal to (1.00) target. Tomorrow, look for a test of the $79.2 smaller than target of the new wave up from $71.41. Closing above this will call for another attempt to overcome the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $86.68 at $79.7 and then a test of the $80.7 intermediate target (1.382) target of the primary wave up from $68.28.

Crude Oil Daily Chart
WTI Crude Oil – Daily Chart

With that said, the 89 percent retracement of the decline from $79.29 at $78.42 held on a closing basis. The late pullback from $78.47 warns that a test of $77.0 might take place first. This level is expected to hold. Taking out $77.0 will call for a test of key near-term support and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $71.41 at $75.8. Settling below $75.8 would warn that the move up is failing.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

The long-term outlook for natural gas remains bearish and the recent move up from $1.804 is most likely corrective. However, Tuesday’s confirmed daily bullish RSI divergence and the wave up from $1.804 call for a larger test of resistance before the decline continues.

Today, natural gas stalled just below $1.84 support and the subsequent move up most likely forms the impulse leg of the primary wave up from $1.804. The $1.88 smaller than (0.618) target of this wave has nearly been met this afternoon and the equal to (1.00) target is $1.91. Settling above $1.91 will call for key near-term resistance at $1.96, a close above which will clear the way for a larger upward correction to $2.00 and higher.

Support at $1.83 is crucial because a move below this would take out the $1.825 intra-day swing low and invalidate the wave up from $1.804 that projects to $1.91 and higher. In turn, this would shift near-term odds back in favor of $1.79 and lower.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil

WTI crude oil settled right at the $49.6 target. Support at $49.6 is highly confluent and may still prove to be a stalling point. However, given WTI fell to $49.66, rose to $51.55, then fell back to $49.6 at the end of the day implies that the move down will extend to at least $49.0 and likely $48.6 tomorrow. These are the intermediate (1.382) and larger than (1.618) targets of the wave down from $51.55, respectively. Settling below $48.6 will call for the next major objective at $47.8.

Today’s inverted hammer suggests another test of resistance might take place soon. Initial resistance is $50.3 and then $51.0, the higher if which is expected to hold. Key resistance is $51.6, a close above which would call for $52.6 and possibly higher before the decline eventually continues.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent’s move down is poised to extend and the next target is $53.6. Closing below this will clear the way for $52.9 and lower. A daily inverted hammer suggests another test of resistance might take place soon, but $55.0 is expected to hold. Key resistance is $55.7, a close above which would call for $56.3 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil

The near-term outlook for WTI crude oil became positive today, and although October did not settle above $69.8 it rose above that level late this afternoon. There is a lot of resistance near the upper limit of the $69.8 target, right around $70.0 still, so there is an outside chance the move up will stall early tomorrow. However, given today’s surge higher, and because prices have overcome the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $71.4, any pullback will most likely be a corrective buying opportunity for bulls while today’s $68.4 midpoint holds.

The next objective is $70.4 and a close above this would call for $70.9 and eventually the next major objective of $71.5. This is the last target protecting October WTI’s $71.63 swing high. Therefore, settling above $71.5 would open the way for a new high of at least $72.0 this week.

Immediate support is $69.3 and key support for tomorrow is $68.4, which should hold. Settling below $68.4 would suggest today’s move up was based on weak external factors that could not support the move up. In that case, look for prices to challenge $67.9 and possibly the $67.33 intra-day swing low. A move below the latter would invalidate the wave up from $66.86 and shift odds to be solidly back in favor of a continued decline.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent’s move up accelerated again today and the pattern up from $75.64 has unfolded as a five-wave formation that met its Wave V targets at $79.54 this afternoon. The move up is poised to continue and $79.9 and likely $80.5 should be challenged tomorrow.

That said, because the five-wave pattern met its target at $79.54 a corrective pullback might take place first. Such a move is expected to hold support at today’s $78.2 midpoint, which means the pullback will be a buying opportunity. However, a close below $78.2 would suggest the move up has stalled again and that another major test of support will take place over the next few days. Given today’s rise, this is doubtful.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil

WTI crude oil has been trading in a very indecisive manner as traders seem to be waiting for clarification of recent events or new external factors to drive the next leg lower or higher. This was most evident today after the early move up overcame $68.1 as expected but stalled before reaching key near-term resistance at $69.1. The subsequent decline suggests that whatever factors drove prices higher late yesterday did not fully pan out today and that the overall outlook remains neutral-to-negative.

There is crucial support at $66.3 and prices are already working their way toward that objective this afternoon. The key, however, will be a close below $66.3, which would then clear the way for prices to fall toward the next major objective at $63.9. Even so, the move down will most likely remain a grind, so there is a reasonable chance that prices could temporarily stall at $65.8 and $65.1 as prices fall toward $63.9.

Immediate resistance is $68.1, a level that should continue to hold on a closing basis. Key resistance in the short-term is $69.2, a close above which would shift the near-term outlook to positive and call for another attempt at $70.4 and higher.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent crude oil’s move up stalled again today at $73.93, which was just above last Wednesday’s $73.5 midpoint and the 100-day moving average. The move down from $73.93 then formed a wave that projects to $71.9 as the smaller than (0.618) target. This is an important near-term objective because a close below this would open the way for $71.3 and lower.

Resistance at $73.7 is expected to hold, though $74.7 is still most important for the short-term outlook. Closing above this would be positive and call for key upper resistance at $75.3. Such a move is doubtful though without a surprise bullish shift in external factors.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.