Copper Price Forecast – May 16, 2024

Copper Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

LME copper rose as called for and challenged the $10442 target at today’s $10445.5 high. This objective is split between the larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $9739 and the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $6955. This target is now adjusted to $10478, which is split between equal to target of the wave up from $6955 and the XC (2.764) projection of the wave up from $10504. This is the most important target on the chart due to its confluence and alignment with projections for these waves and the subwaves up from $8127. This is also an area in which a correction should take place before the uptrend extends. Daily and weekly momentum oscillators are also overbought. The challenge is that there are no bearish patterns or confirmed signals that call for the move up to stall. Therefore, a test of $10478 is probable within the next day or so. Closing above this will open the way for $10584 and higher.

That said, the post-settlement decline has formed a wave down from $10445.5 that shows potential to extend to its $10304 equal to (1.00) target early tomorrow. Taking out the $10355 smaller than (0.618) target will increase the odds for such a move. Falling below $10304 will call for a test of the $10220 larger than (1.618) target. Settling below $10220 would shift near-term odds in favor of a deeper test of support before the uptrend attempts to overcome the $10478 objective.