WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.
WTI crude oil’s pullback from $83.12 is likely a correction. Last week’s shooting star, confirmed daily KaseCD and MACD divergences, and a daily PeakOut (overbought) signal indicate a deeper test of support should take place. However, Monday’s rally and move above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $83.12 dampened the odds for an extended correction.
Nevertheless, Tuesday’s move down fulfilled the $81.5 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $82.48. Furthermore, with gasoline and diesel prices falling WTI will probably be hard-pressed to settle above key resistance at $82.6 during the next few days. Therefore, the near-term outlook leans bearish and closing below $81.1, the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $80.3, will call for a test of the $80.7 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $83.12. Settling below this will open the way for a test of at least this wave’s $79.7 equal to (1.00) target before the uptrend extends to a new high.
With that said, this is a tight call for the next few days. The uptrend is intact and, as stated, the pullback from $83.12 is likely a correction. Should WTI crude oil rise again and overcome $82.1 look for a test of the $82.6 smaller than target of the compound wave up from $80.3. Settling above this would shift the near-term odds back in favor of prices rising to $83.3 and higher.
