Natural Gas Price Forecast – March 27, 2024

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

May natural gas fell to a new contract low and finally settled below an important target at $1.76. The move down is now poised to test the $1.69 equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $1.900 and then the $1.66 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.152. There is a lot of support around $1.66, so this is a potential stalling point for the May contract. Nevertheless, closing below $1.66 will call for $1.63, $1.60, and eventually a test of the $1.51 equal to target of the wave down from $2.152.

There are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move down to stall before reaching at least $1.69 and likely $1.66. Today’s decline also negated a daily weak bullish KasePO divergence. Nevertheless, should natural gas rally tomorrow look for initial resistance at $1.75 and key near-term resistance at $1.79. Settling above $1.79 would shift near-term odds in favor of a more significant test of resistance where $1.88 is most important.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.