Crude Oil Price Forecast – July 9, 2024

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil confirmed daily bearish MACD and Stochastic divergences at the $84.52 swing high and settled below the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $72.44 today. The move down is likely a correction. Even so, prices also settled below the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave primary wave down from $84.52. Therefore, this wave favors a test of at least its $80.8 equal to (1.00) target. Settling below $80.8 will call for a test of the $79.9 intermediate (1.382) target, which is also the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $72.44. A normal correction should hold $79.9. Settling below this would warn that the move up is failing and call for a more substantial test of support.

A small intra-day double bottom formed around $81.25, so there is a modest chance for a test of the $82.16 confirmation point. Overcoming this would call for $82.5 and likely $83.2. The $83.2 level is key resistance for the near term because it is in line with the double bottom’s target and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $84.52. Rising to $83.2 will also invalidate the wave down from $84.52 which projects to $80.8 and lower. Settling above $83.2 would imply that the corrective move down is complete.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.