Natural Gas Price Forecast – July 10, 2024

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

August natural gas fell to test the $2.31 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.448 as called for. This objective held, but most waves that meet the smaller than target extend to fulfill at least the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $2.26. Therefore, the outlook for natural gas is bearish and a test of $2.26 is expected tomorrow. Closing below $2.26 will call for the $2.21 and $2.18 intermediate (1.382) and larger than (1.618) targets to be challenged in the coming days.

Because the $2.268 swing low held, the move up from that level might still prove to be a period of consolidation before a larger test of resistance takes place. Should natural gas overcome the 38 percent retracement from $2.448 at $2.35 early tomorrow look for a test of the $2.40 smaller than target of the wave up from $2.268. Overcoming this would call for key near-term resistance at $2.47 to be challenged. Settling above $2.47 would put the near-term odds in favor of testing $2.54 and $2.58.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.