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Kase Market Commentary

Samples of Kase’s energy and metals price forecasts, daily updates, market commentary, and educational perspectives on technical analysis and trading — published by Dean Rogers, CMT.

Crude Oil Forecast: WTI’s Technical Factors Call for $43.2

Posted on November 09, 2015 by Dean Rogers, CMT in Oil Price Forecast

By Dean Rogers WTI stalled near $48.0 as we expected in our weekly Crude Oil Commentary and the sustained close below $44.7 calls for a test of key support at $43.2. This is a confluence area that is near the 0.618 projection of the wave $51.42 – 42.58 – 48.36. A close below $43.2 would … Continue reading Crude Oil Forecast: WTI’s Technical Factors Call for $43.2

Is the “Baby’s” Sugar High Over?

Posted on November 06, 2015 by ckase in Ask Kase

By Cynthia Kase The market’s been watching the impact of El Niño since June. Then the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said there was a 90 percent chance the baby would stick around all summer, and maybe even into 2016. Sugar has been rising since mid-August, as El Niño persisted, but turned choppy in October … Continue reading Is the “Baby’s” Sugar High Over?

Natural Gas Forecast: Correction Favors $2.38

Posted on November 04, 2015 by Dean Rogers, CMT in Natural Gas Price Forecast

By Dean Rogers Natural gas cautiously rose to $2.317 to fulfill the smaller than (0.618) projection for the wave $2.188 – 2.336 – 2.231. Typically, a move to $2.38 would now be expected because waves that meet the 0.618 projection normally extend to at least the equal to (1.00) projection. The pullback to $2.255 is … Continue reading Natural Gas Forecast: Correction Favors $2.38

Gasoline Futures Oscillating in Range

Posted on November 02, 2015 by Dean Rogers, CMT in Oil Price Forecast

By Dean Rogers Last week several top refiners reported a jump in their third quarter earnings compared to a year ago. Attractive crack spreads and refining margins due to lower oil prices and healthy demand for gasoline have helped refiners pump in profits. In addition, last week’s rise in oil prices, which was partially attributed … Continue reading Gasoline Futures Oscillating in Range

Natural Gas Forecast: December’s Wave Structure Calls for $2.11

Posted on October 28, 2015 by Dean Rogers, CMT in Natural Gas Price Forecast

By Dean Rogers As discussed last week, everyone is looking for the natural gas bottom. I am sure no one wants me to step back onto my “picking bottoms is a dangerous game” soap box, so I will just reiterate that the best anyone can do is identify potential turning points and look to time … Continue reading Natural Gas Forecast: December’s Wave Structure Calls for $2.11

Crude Oil Forecast: WTI Technical Failure Leads to Bearish Outlook

Posted on October 26, 2015 by Dean Rogers, CMT in Oil Price Forecast

By Dean Rogers December WTI’s wave $39.22 – 50.89 – 44.31, which met its 0.618 projection at $51.42, has been taken out by the $43.64 swing low. Consequently a technical failure of the move up has taken place and odds have shifted in favor of a continued decline. Look for $43.0 tomorrow and very likely … Continue reading Crude Oil Forecast: WTI Technical Failure Leads to Bearish Outlook

Natural Gas Forecast: Looking for a bottom? So is everyone else.

Posted on October 21, 2015 by Dean Rogers, CMT in Natural Gas Price Forecast

By Dean Rogers This is the time of year when everyone is looking for a bottom and pre-winter rally for natural gas. The logic and seasonal timing make sense, but picking bottoms is a dangerous game. Those that successfully time the bottom are more lucky than good. The best that most mere mortals can hope … Continue reading Natural Gas Forecast: Looking for a bottom? So is everyone else.

Crude Oil Forecast: WTI Poised to Challenge Critical Support

Posted on October 19, 2015 by Dean Rogers, CMT in Oil Price Forecast

By Dean Rogers December WTI’s wave $39.22 – 50.89 – 44.31 met its 0.618 projection at $51.42. This was positive, especially due to the break higher out of the bullish pennant formation. We anticipated the pullback from $51.42, but so far it has been stronger than expected and is poised to test major support levels … Continue reading Crude Oil Forecast: WTI Poised to Challenge Critical Support

Natural Gas Forecast: Settling Into Trading Range

Posted on October 14, 2015 by Dean Rogers, CMT in Natural Gas Price Forecast

By Dean Rogers Spot natural gas is still looking a bit unsure of the move up, but the forward months, especially the winter strip, are looking reasonably positive. This likely indicates that a longer-term move up is underway, but for now it is looking like the prompt month could settle into a choppy trading range … Continue reading Natural Gas Forecast: Settling Into Trading Range

Crude Oil Forecast: WTI Pullback Tests Major Support

Posted on October 13, 2015 by Dean Rogers, CMT in Oil Price Forecast

By Dean Rogers Last week’s break higher out of the bullish pennant was positive and the move up extended to meet the 0.618 projection of the wave $38.51 – $50.04 – 43.71. However the move stalled there, formed a bearish evening star and blow-off high, and then proceeded to test $46.4, the 62 percent retracement … Continue reading Crude Oil Forecast: WTI Pullback Tests Major Support

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Kase and Company, Inc. work products including, but not limited to, reports, comments, forecasts, analysis, and screenshots whether oral or written are “publications” and are not to be construed in any way as “consulting”. No investment or trading advice, recommendation or opinions are being given or intended.

Risk Disclosure: Futures and forex trading contains substantial risk and is not for every investor. An investor could potentially lose all or more than the initial investment. Risk capital is money that can be lost without jeopardizing ones’ financial security or life style. Only risk capital should be used for trading and only those with sufficient risk capital should consider trading. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Hypothetical Performance Disclosure: Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. no representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown; in fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program. One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk of actual trading. for example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all which can adversely affect trading results.