Crude Oil Forecast: WTI Meets Major Support at $40.41

By Dean Rogers

January WTI futures met crucial support at $40.41 early Monday. This was the 1.00 projection for the wave $52.02 – 43.52 – 49.23. The subsequent move up was initially promising for bulls, but stalled at $42.75 before it could overcome $43.2 resistance.

CLF6 20151123-DIt is a tight call tomorrow, but we expect a test of $40.9 before the move up continues. This is confirmed on the intraday charts by the latest KaseX weak short signal (pink triangle). Support at $40.9 is near the 0.618 projection of the wave $42.75 – 41.09 – 42.62 and the $41.09 swing low. A close below $40.9 would call for $40.0 and possibly lower.

CLF6 20151123

Conversely, not all hope is lost for the upward correction to extend. The daily chart’s Kase Easy Entry System (KEES) permissions shifted from first class short (pink dots) to second class long (light blue dot). Therefore, there is still a reasonable chance for a close over $43.2 and an upward correction to $43.8, the 38 percent retracement from $49.23 to $40.41. A close over $43.8 would significantly increase the probability for an extended move to test major resistance levels.

This is a brief analysis and outlook for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil forecast is a much more detailed and thorough energy price forecast. If you are interested, please sign up for a complimentary four week trial.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

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