Natural Gas Short-Term Forecast – August 1, 2018

Author: Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

September natural gas briefly bounced after falling to $2.751, but the move up stalled at $2.788, forming a new primary wave down from $2.831 that is poised to reach at least $2.73 and possibly $2.70 tomorrow. The former is the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $2.671 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.831. This level may initially hold, but once met odds will favor an eventual close below $2.73, which would then open the way for key support around $2.70. This is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2.831 and connects to $2.66 and lower.

Natural Gas - 0.025 Kase Bar
Natural Gas – 0.025 Kase Bar

That said, for the corrective move up from $2.671 to retain a reasonable shot at extending $2.73 needs to hold and prices will have to overcome the $2.788 intra-day swing high. This will not guarantee a move up but will increase the probability for a test of $2.85, $2.89, and possibly $2.92. For now, though, due to today’s close below yesterday’s $2.77 target, the near-term outlook is negative.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil

WTI held the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $72.98 and subsequently broke lower out of an intra-day bearish flag. The 50-day moving average at $68.22 was tested and held on a closing basis, but the break lower out of the flag and the wave down from $70.43 call for $68.0 tomorrow. This is an important objective because it is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $66.29. Settling below this would be a strong indication the recent move up is over and that prices will challenge support around the $66.29 swing low over the next few days.

WTI Crude Oil - 65 Cent Kase Bar
WTI Crude Oil – 65 Cent Kase Bar

For now, resistance at $69.4 should hold. However, to regain a bullish near-term outlook WTI must settle above $70.6, which would then open the way for $71.5 and higher. This is doubtful given the break lower out of the bearish flag and will become must less probable upon a close below $68.0.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent settled back below the 50-day moving average today and the move down from yesterday’s $75.79 swing high accelerated. Prices are now poised to challenge at least $73.7 and $73.0 within the next day or so. The latter is key for the near-term outlook because it is the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $71.3. A close below this would be a strong indication the recent move up is over and would open the way for $72.0, $71.1, and lower.

Today’s $74.9 midpoint should hold upon a test of resistance. Key resistance and the barrier for a more positive near-term outlook again is $76.6. A move above this is unlikely though unless support at $73.0 holds, which is currently looking doubtful.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil

August WTI crude oil overcame yesterday’s intra-day double top and met this week’s initial $70.9 target. In addition, today’s settle above a key retracement of the decline from $72.7 indicates the move up is unfolding as a five-waves and that the $72.7 swing high will probably be tested before the end of the week. Even so, there are some factors that suggest the five-wave move might stall early tomorrow.

Today’s settle above the 62 percent of the decline from $72.7 and the larger than (1.618) projection of the wave $63.4 – 66.35 – 64.34 confirm the move up from $63.4 is a five-wave trend.

August 2018 WTI Crude Oil - 35-Cent KaseBar
August 2018 WTI Crude Oil – 35-Cent KaseBar

The chart shows that Wave V is already well underway and may have already met a stalling point at $70.91. This is because when a five-wave pattern forms at least two of the three impulse waves (I, III, V) should be equal. Currently, at $70.91, Waves I and V are equal, thus the possibility the move up will stall and begin to pullback early tomorrow. However, even though intra-day momentum is overbought, there are no confirmed reversal patterns that definitively state this will be the case. Therefore, near-term odds favor a continued rise.

With all factors considered, even if a small pullback to test today’s $69.4 midpoint takes place first, support will likely hold and the move up should then extend to $72.7. This is the highest that Wave I projects and the equal to (1.00) target of Wave III. Therefore, at $72.7 the move up would form a very classic looking five-wave pattern that would then be poised for a significant three-wave correction.

Regarding near-term support, $69.4 should hold, though the key level for tomorrow is today’s $68.21 open. Settling below this before $72.7 is met would be a strong indication that the five-wave pattern has ended and that another attempt at $67.3 and lower will ensue.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil

WTI’s corrective wave formation still calls for $67.0. However, today’s high of $66.7 was in line with the upper trend line connecting the $65.69 and $66.24 swing highs. It is also becoming clear that the move up forms a bearish flag. Therefore, while there is still the threat of testing $67.0 and possibly $67.7 (confirmed double bottom’s target), near-term odds have shifted back in favor of a continued decline.

Tomorrow, look for a test of initial support at $65.8, a move below which would call for the flag’s $65.0 lower trend line to be challenged. Settling below $65.0 would be quite bearish and open the way for $64.1 and lower.

That said, a move above $66.5 before prices fall to $65.8 would call for $67.0 to be challenged. Resistance at $67.0 is expected to hold due to the confluence of wave projections and retracements at that level. Settling above $67.0 would call for $67.7 and possibly higher, though this would likely indicate a significant bullish shift in external factors.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent’s near-term outlook is still weaker than WTI’s and has more downside room to extend since WTI led the move down in late May. Brent’s wave down from $77.61 is in position to challenge at least $75.0 and likely $74.5 tomorrow. The latter is most important because it is the 50-day moving average, a close below which would call for a new low of at least $73.7 and eventually $73.1.

Resistance at $76.5 is expected to hold, though the key level for the near-term is $77.3. A close above $77.3 would call for the most important near-term resistance at $77.9 to be tested.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

The near-term outlook for June natural gas has become much more positive. Odds favor a continued rise toward the next major objective of $2.98. However, today’s long upper shadow indicates a test of support might take place first, though this should present a buying opportunity for bulls.

Yesterday, prices finally overcame the $2.873 swing high and broke higher out of the trading range that has dominated the market since mid-February. In addition, the close above $2.90, a highly confluent and important projection for each of the major waves up from $2.55, $2.638, $2.66, and $2.695, increased odds that the move up will continue. As stated in our weekly analysis and yesterday’s daily update, the key now is to sustain a close above $2.90 and ideally hold support at $2.87 and no lower than $2.83.

Natural Gas - Daily
Natural Gas – Daily

Relative odds (based on the number of times a target is found within our analysis) indicate the move up should extend to at least $2.95 and likely $2.98. The latter is the next major objective because it is in line with the $2.975 swing high and is the last target protecting the psychologically important $3.00 level.

Even so, this afternoon’s pullback from $2.939 left a long upper shadow on the daily chart, warning that a test of support might take place before $2.95 is met and eventually overcome. Should prices fall below $2.90 early tomorrow, look for a test of Tuesday’s $2.87 midpoint. This level should hold.

Key support for the near-term is $2.83, Tuesday’s open and the 200-day moving average. Settling below this would be a strong indication that the move up has failed and that prices will most likely settle back into a trading range with a slightly higher ceiling.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil

WTI crude oil’s trend remains bullish but is still showing signs of exhaustion. Daily and weekly momentum indicators are overbought and setup for bearish divergence, the weekly candlesticks continue to form long upper shadows, and before yesterday’s rise to a new high the daily chart formed a series of spinning tops, a shooting star, and an evening star. The challenge is that reversal patterns like these have been set up for the past few weeks or continue to form, but there has been no follow-through to confirm the patterns.

Today’s pullback and test of yesterday’s $71.9 midpoint provides another opportunity for WTI crude oil prices to follow-through on a much-needed correction. The small waves down from $72.9 call for a test of Monday’s $71.5 open, a close below which would call for $70.9 and possibly lower.

Even so, relative odds (based on the number of times a target is found within our analysis) indicate $70.9 will probably hold and that the move up should extend to $73.2 soon. A move above $72.6 before $71.5 is met would shift near-term odds back in favor of $73.2. This target has the highest relative odds, and due to its confluence is another potential stalling point for WTI. Settling above $73.2 would open the way for $74.4 and higher.

With all factors considered, look for a test of at least $71.5 and possibly $70.9 tomorrow. Support at $70.9 should hold and until proven otherwise the move up will likely extend to $73.2. Therefore, at this point, any pullback will likely be corrective and could provide a buying opportunity for traders that have recently taken profit or missed the opportunity to add to long positions Monday.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent crude oil formed a double top at $80.5 and today’s shooting star reversal pattern setup calls for a test of at least $78.9 tomorrow. A close below this would confirm the shooting and open the way for a test of the double top’s $78.1 confirmation point. This is key support for the near-term, a close below which would call for an extended downward correction to $77.2 and possibly lower (the double top’s target is $75.7).

Brent Crude Oil - Double Top
Brent Crude Oil – Double Top

That said, reversal patterns like the double top and shooting star have been set up repeatedly and failed during the past few weeks. In addition, relative odds indicate that any move down right now will most likely be corrective and that eventually, prices should rise to $81.6. For now, though, $80.0 should hold and key resistance is $80.5. A close above $80.5 would shift near-term odds back in favor of a continued rise to $81.6.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

After holding support near $2.70 last week, June natural gas rallied and overcame the $2.844 swing high. This was somewhat positive, but the move stalled just below the more important $2.873 swing high. This swing defines the top of the trading range that has contained prices since mid-February. For now, odds still slightly favor a break higher out of the range, though the pullback from yesterday’s $2.864 swing high is poised to extend to at least $2.79 and possibly $2.76 first.

Natural Gas - Daily
Natural Gas – Daily

Support at $2.76 is most important for the near-term and could present a buying opportunity for those that missed last week’s move up or have locked in long profits over the past few days. Even so, a close below $2.76 would shift odds back in favor of $2.71. This is the lowest that the small wave down from $2.864 projects, so this level should hold unless there is a bearish surprise from external factors (i.e. a much larger than expected build tomorrow).

Should prices overcome the $2.873 swing high the market must still settle above a highly confluent objective at $2.90 to prove a break higher out of the range isn’t a false breakout. Therefore, $2.90 is key resistance, a close above which would open the way for $2.93, $2.96, and possibly higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

The overall outlook for WTI crude oil is positive. However, a double top around $71.9, daily spinning top candlestick reversal pattern, and intra-day bearish momentum divergence indicate the pullback from $71.92 should extend to at least $70.4 tomorrow. This target is split between a projection of the wave down from $71.93 and the double top’s $70.26 confirmation point.

WTI Crude Oil - Double Top
WTI Crude Oil – Double Top

An early move below $70.4 will open the way for $69.9, $69.3, and possibly $68.8. Of these targets, $69.3 is the most likely stalling point because it is near a confluent wave projection and key retracement of the move up from $67.63. Even so, $68.8 has reasonable odds because it is split between the double top’s target and the most important projection of the wave down from $71.92.

Should prices turn higher and overcome $71.4, look for another attempt at $72.0, a close above which would wipe out the double top, spinning top, and bearish divergence signals. This would also open the way for the move up to extend to the next major target at $72.8. This is the most confluent objective as discussed in our weekly Commentary and another likely stalling point for WTI.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

This week, June natural gas has been bound within a very tight range between nominally $2.70 and $2.77. This is a challenging call right now because there are plenty of technical factors that indicate a break in either direction could take place soon. Even so, because the corrective range formed after a move down from $2.82 odds have a slight edge to break lower. A close below $2.70 would open the way for $2.66, $2.63, and possibly lower. Should prices settle above $2.77, look for the move up to challenge at least $2.81 and possibly $2.84.

Natural Gas - 0.02 Kase Bar
Natural Gas – 0.02 Kase Bar

All of that said, even upon a break out of the most recent range prices must still contend with the boundaries of a larger range that has persisted for the past few months between approximately $2.66 and $2.87.

For now, look for a break out of the smaller range between $2.70 and $2.77 within the next day or so to guide short-term trade decisions. There is still no evidence calling for a break higher or lower out of the larger range, so its boundaries would make for likely profit taking or stop and reverse entry levels until external factors provide more evidence to help determine a longer-term trend.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Forecast

Late last week, June WTI crude oil broke higher out of a daily bullish flag. This week’s crude oil price forecast indicated there was still a crucial target at $70.1, but this objective was overcome with relative ease Monday. Today’s corrective pullback stalled at $67.63 before settling the day at $69.06. This was just above the upper trend line of the bullish daily flag, and this afternoon prices are already nearly $1.00 higher and have overcome the key 62 percent retracement of the decline from $70.84. Therefore, the outlook remains bullish and the move up is still poised to extend.

The wave formations up from $67.63 indicate WTI should challenge at least $70.6 and likely $71.1 tomorrow. This afternoon’s bullish sentiment (which is purportedly based on external factors) could also drive prices to $71.7 and even $72.8, especially if prices rise above $71.1 early.

WTI Crude Oil - Daily Bullish Flag
WTI Crude Oil – Daily Bullish Flag

That said, when external factors and bullish sentiment are driving the market prices tend to become over exuberant and can overshoot reasonable objectives. While $71.1 and $72.8 make technical sense for the near-term, anything above $72.8 without a reasonable pullback first would warrant caution of a spike type scenario that could reverse very quickly.

For now, look for support at $68.6 to most likely hold with the key threshold at $67.9. A close below the latter would indicate the move up has failed and would open the way for a larger downward correction to $66.8 and lower.

Brent Crude Oil Forecast

Although Brent formed a bearish daily hanging man, prices have risen over $1.00 this afternoon after settling at $74.85. The wave formation up from $73.1 is poised to reach at least $76.8 and likely $77.8 tomorrow. A close above the latter will open the way for $78.6 and $79.9.

That said, the bullish sentiment driving prices higher this afternoon (see WTI’s comments above) could push prices too high too fast, causing a spike type scenario that could quickly reverse. Therefore, caution is warranted on any move above $79.9 over the next few days without a reasonable pullback first.

For now, support at $74.2 should hold, though prices will have to drop below the $73.07 swing low to indicate the move up has failed. In this unlikely case, look for a larger downward correction to $71.7 and possibly $70.8.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.