Crude Oil Forecast: WTI in Position to Overcome $50.0 Again

For the past few weeks, WTI crude oil has been trading in a tight range as it tries to sort through recent events and fundamental factors. Reports indicate Monday’s close at a 10-month high was due to concerns over continued supply disruptions and speculation that the Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates this month.

From a technical perspective, the recent wave formations show that prices are poised to rise to targets above $50.0 over the next few days before reaching the next major decision point in the mid-$50s. July WTI closed above the 0.618 projection of the wave up from $47.26 on Monday. Waves that overcome the 0.618 projection typically extend to at least the 1.00 projection, in this case $50.7. Therefore, odds favor a test of $50.7. A close over $50.7 would call for $51.8 and possibly higher this week.

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Support at $48.4 should hold. This is the 0.618 projection of the wave down from $50.21. It is also near the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $47.75 to $49.9. A close below $48.4 would call for a test of $47.5, which is near the bottom of the recent trading range. A close below this would open the way for an extended correction to $46.2 and possibly lower.

This is a brief analysis and outlook for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Commentary is a much more detailed and thorough energy price forecast. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

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