Natural Gas Price Forecast – January 7, 2026

Author: Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the President of Kase and Company, Inc. He oversees all of Kase's operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2000 as a programmer but developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst and became President of the company in January 2024. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

February natural gas rose today, confirming daily bullish KasePO, RSI, Stochastic, and MACD divergences. These bullish momentum signals reflect exhaustion and call for a larger test of resistance before the downtrend extends and tests a highly confluent area of support between $3.30 and $3.20.

The intraday wave up from $3.324 met and held its $3.59 smaller than (0.618) target. Another test of $3.59 is expected, a move above which will call for the $3.67 equal to (1.00) target to be fulfilled. This is also the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $4.176. A simple correction will hold $3.67. Settling above $3.67 will call for an extended correction to challenge $3.77 and possibly $3.83. Settling above $3.83, which is in line with the larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $3.324 and the 62 percent retracement from $4.176, would indicate that a substantial test of resistance is underway.

Nonetheless, the downtrend remains intact, and the top of Monday’s gap down from $3.563 held on a closing basis. The gap might still prove to be an exhaustion pattern should prices settle above the $3.59 target. Otherwise, should $3.59 hold, and prices close below $3.43, look for another attempt to take out key near-term support at $3.30. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the first wave down from $3.324 and the intermediate (1.382) target of the first wave down from $5.551. Settling below $3.30 would put the odds in favor of testing the $3.20 equal to target of the primary wave down from $5.551. This is another probable stalling point for the February natural gas contract.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil rose to test and hold the crucial $58.8 level before pulling back again. The $58.8 level is key near-term resistance because it is the larger than (1.618) target of the first wave up from $54.89, the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $54.89, and the 62 percent retracement from $61.25. The $58.8 level also sits just above the 50-day moving average, which has held on a closing basis. Today’s $58.87 high aligns with the $58.88 swing high, reinforcing resistance around $58.8.

Today’s close below the 20-day moving average and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $58.88 indicates that WTI crude oil should test the $56.3 equal to (1.00) target tomorrow. This objective is in line with the $56.31 swing low and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $54.89. Settling below $56.3 will imply that the corrective move up from $54.89 is complete, opening the way for a test of the $55.7 smaller than target of the wave down from $60.12 and likely the $55.3 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $58.88.

Should $56.3 hold, and prices recover to rise above $58.2, look for another test of $58.8. Settling above $58.8 will put the near-term odds in favor of WTI crude oil rising to $58.8, $59.9, and eventually the $60.3 equal to target of the primary wave up from $54.89.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas briefly broke the trendline up from $3.913 and fell to challenge the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $3.913, the 89 percent retracement from $4.390, and the 50-day moving average at $4.51. Both the trendline and the $4.51 target held on a closing basis. The outlook remains bearish because no bullish patterns or signals have been confirmed. Closing below $4.51 will suggest that the move up from $3.913 is complete. In this case, look for a test of $4.38. Falling to $4.38 will take out the last major swing low at $4.390. This would be the last factor in confirming that the trend up from $3.913 has been broken.

That said, the move down from $5.496 lacks a clear primary wave. This is an ideal stalling point given the importance of the trendline and the $4.51 target. Today’s spinning top candlestick pattern reflects near-term uncertainty and warns that a correction might occur tomorrow. Overcoming the $4.69 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $4.455 would call for a test of $4.78 and possibly key near-term resistance at $4.86. Settling above $4.86 would confirm the spinning top and put prices above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $5.496. This would reflect a bullish shift in near-term sentiment and suggest that the uptrend still has a modest chance of extending.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

January WTI crude oil failed to test the 62 percent retracement from $61.84 and the 50-day moving average around $60.0 again. The $60.0 level was challenged and held on Monday. Instead, prices fell and formed a daily bearish engulfing line. Today’s engulfing line is not as meaningful as one that forms during an uptrend. However, it suggests that a shortfall within the descending broadening wedge that formed during the decline from $61.84 has occurred. A shortfall is a failure to test the upper or lower trendline of a pattern and typically indicates the pattern will fail. In this case, the wedge may also fail because prices have already retraced more than 62 percent of the rise from $55.99. There is also a complex intraday head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at $58.3. The target of this pattern is $56.6.

A test of at least $58.3 and likely $57.7 will occur tomorrow. The $57.7 target is in line with the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $61.18 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $60.85. The $57.7 target has been tested a few times, but has held on a closing basis. Closing below $57.7 will provide more evidence that the wedge will fail to break higher and open the way for $57.1 and then a highly confluent and important target at $56.6.

Nevertheless, trading has been erratic for the past few weeks, thus the formation of the wedge. The 50 percent retracement of the rise from $57.1 held on a closing basis today, so there is still a modest chance for another attempt to overcome $60.0 and challenge the upper trendline of the wedge around $60.4. Closing above $60.4 will call for the $60.8 smaller than target of the wave up from $55.99 to be challenged. Settling above $60.7 will confirm a breakout of the wedge because this wave connects to $63.0 as the equal to target.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

January natural gas fell to challenge the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $4.881, the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $3.913, the 100-day moving average, and the trend line up from $3.913, all around $4.39 today. The decline to $4.39 negated the potential for a five-wave trend up from $3.913 because the top of the potential Wave I at $4.412 was broken by the decline to $4.386. The move up might still form a nested three-wave trend, but the odds for a continued rise within the next couple of weeks have been significantly dampened.

The near-term outlook is bearish, and taking out $4.44 will call for another test of $4.39. Settling below $4.39 will strongly suggest that a reversal is underway. This will also clear the way for a minor target at $4.34, a test of the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $3.913 at $4.28, and the $4.23 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $4.881 in the coming days.

Nevertheless, the $4.39 target is a probable stalling point given its confluence and importance. Short-term daily trend indicators are neutral, and the rise from $4.386 settled marginally above the $4.48 target of a confirmed intraday triple top around $4.80. There is a reasonable chance for a test of today’s $4.57 midpoint. This is also the 38 percent retracement from $4.881 and the 20-day moving average. Overcoming $4.57 would call for a test of key near-term resistance at $4.64, which is today’s open and the 50 percent retracement. Settling above $4.57 would suggest that the pullback from $4.881 is a completed correction. Even so, January natural gas must ultimately settle above the $4.86 larger than (1.618) target of the first wave up from $3.913 to prove that the uptrend is still intact.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas held important near-term support at $4.27 on a closing basis Tuesday. Today’s rise confirmed Tuesday’s hammer by settling above Monday’s open. The corrective pullback from $4.688 is likely complete, and the move up is now poised to challenge the $4.63 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $3.595 again. Settling back above $4.63 will call for another attempt to settle above the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $5.757 at $4.68. Closing above $4.68 will indicate that Wave V of a potential five-wave trend up from $3.595 is underway. In this case, look for a test of a minor target at $4.73 and then the $4.81 smaller than (0.618) target of Wave III up from $3.752 in the coming days.

There are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move up to stall again tomorrow. Nonetheless, should prices fall, look for initial support at $4.46 and $4.38. Key support for the near-term is the $4.32 smaller than target of the wave down from $4.688. Settling below $4.32 would call for another test of $4.27 and likely an extended test of support, where $4.14 is the next major threshold. Taking out $4.14 would negate the potential for a five-wave trend up from $3.595.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil broke higher out of a bullish flag again. The most recent move up came after holding crucial support at $58.1 following last week’s failed breakout of the flag. Today’s close above the $60.7 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $58.1 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $61.84 was also bullish for the outlook in the coming days. WTI now favors a move above the $61.18 swing high to challenge the $61.7 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $58.1. This is a key objective because $61.7 is also in line with the smaller than target of the wave up from $55.99, the 38 percent retracement from $71.38, the 62 percent retracement from $65.33, and the 100-day moving average. A sustained close above $61.7 will confirm a bullish outlook for at least another couple of weeks.

Should prices turn lower again before overcoming the $61.18 swing high, which would invalidate the current wave down from $61.84, look for initial support at $60.2 and then $59.8. The $59.8 level is expected to hold. Settling below this will indicate that another false breakout of the flag has occurred. In this case, look for another attempt to take out major support at $58.1.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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Brent crude oil continues to trade in a range that could prove to be a correction of the rise from $59.97. However, today’s decline has put the near-term odds in favor of Brent testing $63.7 again. This is a key objective for the near-term because it is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $65.95 and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $59.97. Settling below $63.7 will call for another test of the 20-day moving average at $63.4 and likely a decline to fulfill the $62.9 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $65.95.

Nevertheless, $63.7 has been resilient support for the past week. Moreover, the $63.38 swing low may form the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders pattern with a neckline around $66.0. Should Brent continue to hold $63.7 and overcome the $65.0 smaller than target of the wave up from $63.38, look for another test of key near-term resistance at $65.8. Settling above $65.8 will put the odds back in favor of a continued rise above the neckline to challenge $66.5 and likely the $67.0 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $59.97.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December natural gas fell as called for and challenged the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $3.595 at $3.80, the $3.76 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $4.211, and the bottom of the October 20 breakaway gap up from $3.748. These important targets were held on a closing basis, and a daily morning star formed.

The bounce from $3.752 initially looked promising for bulls, but the late decline below $3.80 suggests that $3.76 will be challenged again early tomorrow. Closing below $3.76 will strongly suggest that the move up from $3.595 is complete and call for another attempt to settle below the $3.62 equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $5.757.

Nevertheless, this is a tight call for tomorrow because the area between $3.76 and $3.80 is extremely important. Most of the waves and sub-waves down from $4.139 project to levels between $3.76 and $3.80. This is a prime area for the move down to stall, and $3.76 is the target that December natural gas must hold for the move up from $3.595 to retain a reasonable chance at extending. Closing above $3.96 will overcome the larger than (1.618) target of the current wave up from $3.752 and confirm the morning star. This would suggest that the pullback from $4.139 is complete and call for a push to challenge a key threshold at $4.09. This is the XC (2.764) projection of the wave up from $3.752 and, more importantly, the smaller than target of the wave up from $3.595.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December WTI crude oil is pulling back after testing and holding the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $71.47 and the 62 percent retracement from $65.77 at $62.0 on a closing basis. The move up from $55.96 was due for a correction, and today’s decline completed Friday’s shooting star by settling below last Thursday’s $60.9 midpoint. A daily bearish KCDpeak (overbought signal) was also confirmed, but this could prove to be a bullish signal because it formed so quickly.

That said, the confirmation point of the shooting star, the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $55.96, and the equal to (1.00) target of the intraday wave down from $62.59, all around $60.0, held on a closing basis. Therefore, the pullback from $62.59 might prove to be short-lived and is probably forming the corrective leg of a wave up from $55.96.

The outlook for tomorrow is bearish. Prices are already dropping below $60.0 during the post-settlement trading hours. Tests of $59.4 and $58.9, the respective intermediate (1.382) and larger than (1.618) targets of the intraday wave down from $62.59, are favored. Settling below $60.0 for a few days will strongly suggest that prices will begin to consolidate. This is the most probable scenario for the near-term. Key support is the 62 percent retracement from $55.96 at $58.5. Settling below $58.5 for a few days will imply that the move up is failing.

Nevertheless, as stated, because $60.0 was held on a closing basis today, there is still a reasonable chance for the move up to extend in the coming days. Settling above key near-term resistance at $62.0 will confirm the pullback from $62.59 is complete, putting the near-term odds in favor of $62.6 and a push to challenge the next major threshold at $63.7.