Gold Price Forecast – May 7, 2026

Author: Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the President of Kase and Company, Inc. He oversees all of Kase's operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2000 as a programmer but developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst and became President of the company in January 2024. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are detailed and thorough price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and metals ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold’s follow-through after yesterday’s confirmation of a daily bullish Harami was lackluster. The 62 percent retracement from $4917.7 at $4762 and the 20-day moving average held on a closing basis. This warns that the move up from $4510.1 is the corrective leg of a wave down from $4917.7.

For now, the near-term outlook leans bullish given the confirmed Harami and the fact that the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $4128.5 at $4523 has held. Overcoming $4762 again will call for a test of $4816, which is in line with the 50- and 100-day moving averages. Settling above this will clear the way for another attempt to close above the highly confluent $4889 objective.

Nevertheless, this is a tight call for the near-term given today’s lackluster rise. Look for initial support at $4674 and then $4611. Taking out $4611, which is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $4510.1, would call for another attempt to close below $4523, which is now the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $4917.7. Settling below $4523 will put the near-term odds in favor of gold falling to $4430 and likely this wave’s $4368 equal to (1.00) target.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas took out the $2.746 swing low and invalidated all the prior waves up from $2.592 that had called for a continued rise. The 62 percent retracement of the rise from $2.592 at $2.70 and the $2.69 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.905 held on a closing basis. Another test of $2.69 is favored, a close below which will imply that the corrective move up from $2.592 is complete. This will open the way for the $2.66 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2.868. This wave connects to $2.58 as the equal to (1.00) target. This is also the equal to target of the wave down from $2.905. Therefore, settling below $2.69 and then $2.66 will clear the way for a move below the confluent $2.62 target that was tested and held on a closing basis when prices fell to $2.592.

Nevertheless, because $2.69 held on a closing basis, there is still a modest chance for a continued rise. However, prices would have to close above $2.81 to put the near-term odds in favor of testing the $2.870 smaller than (0.618) target of the new primary wave up from $2.592. Settling above $2.87 will call for a test of this wave’s $2.98 equal to target.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil traded within Monday’s range today. This suggests that traders are waiting for more information and that prices will possibly consolidate for a few more days. The uptrend is intact, but daily bearish KaseCD, MACD, and RSI divergences confirmed off the $110.93 high warn that a deeper correction might occur first. Furthermore, WTI is poised to test the $100.2 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $110.93. Closing below this will call for an extended correction to challenge this wave’s $95.3 equal (1.00) target before the uptrend extends to a new contract high.

Nevertheless, the equal to target of the wave down from $107.46 at $100.8 and the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $99.11 held this afternoon. Prices have risen from this area and overcame the 21 percent retracement from $107.46. The outlook for tomorrow is tight, and overcoming the 38 percent retracement at $103.5 would call for a test of the 62 percent retracement and the smaller than target of the wave up from $99.11 at $105.3. Overcoming this would call for a push to challenge key near-term resistance and this wave’s equal to target at $108.3. Settling above $108.3 will put the near-term odds back in favor of WTI crude oil rising to $111.1 and higher.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast is a much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. Daily updates are included. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

May WTI crude oil’s wave up from $75.64 favors an eventual test of its $110.2 equal to (1.00) target. However, today’s pullback from $106.86 engulfed Monday’s long-legged doji. An intraday head and shoulders pattern with a complex right shoulder also formed, and the wave down from $106.86 favors a test of $98.8. This will break the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern around $99.5. Closing below $98.8 will also open the way for a test of $95.2 and possibly the head and shoulders’ target at $92.5, which is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $84.37. Therefore, the outlook for the next day or so leans in favor of a deeper test of support due to today’s bearish engulfing line and the intraday head and shoulders pattern.

Nevertheless, even in the case that the pullback from $106.86 extends, the move down is likely a correction of the broader uptrend. There is a modest chance for a test of the $104.2 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $99.43 early Wednesday. This is also in line with the 62 percent retracement from $106.86. Overcoming $104.2 will imply that the corrective pullback is complete. In this case, look for a test of $107.5, a close above which will put the near-term odds back in favor of May WTI rising to challenge the highly confluent $110.2 threshold.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

March WTI crude oil initially fell to challenge the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $54.84 at $62.0 and the $61.5 larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $66.48 again. Both levels held on a closing basis for the second straight day, and the rise from $61.12 is poised to reach its $64.3 smaller than (0.618) target. This is also the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $66.48. Settling above $64.3 will imply that the corrective pullback from $66.48 is complete and call for a push to challenge the $65.2 equal to (1.00) target of this wave and the 78 percent retracement. Rising to $65.2 will also fill Monday’s breakaway gap down from $65.21. Settling above $65.2 will call for another test of $66.1, an important target that held on a closing basis last week. Settling above $66.1 will clear the way for $66.9 and higher, putting March WTI back on a path to eventually challenge the $69.8 confirmation point of a double bottom that formed between the $54.56 and $54.84 swing lows.

Monday’s midpoint held on a closing basis, and the daily bearish KaseCD divergence and Stochastic overbought signals that were confirmed within the past few days warn that a deeper test of support might still occur. Taking out the $62.6 corrective swing low of the wave up from $61.12 will invalidate this wave and the connection it makes from $64.2 to $65.2 and higher. This will also call for another test of $62.0 and possibly key near-term support at $61.5. Settling below $61.5 will put the near-term odds in favor of March WTI falling to challenge $60.6 and lower.

LME Copper Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are detailed and thorough price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and metals ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

LME copper fell to test and hold the $12932 intermediate (1.382) target of the first wave down from $13407. Prices also held the 38 and 50 percent retracement levels of the rise from $12517 on a closing basis. However, there is a double top around $13400 and daily bearish KasePO, RSI, Stochastic, and MACD divergences, and a daily RSI overbought signal were confirmed today. Note that $13400 is an ideal stalling point because it is in line with the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $4371 and the larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $7856.

These bearish factors indicate that a deeper correction will probably occur. Taking out $12864 will call for $12648, which then connects to the $12517 confirmation point of the double top. Settling below $12517 and confirming the double top would lead to a significant correction because the target of this reversal pattern is $11666, which is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $10577.5 and the 50-day moving average.

That said, this is a tight call for tomorrow because copper settled above the $13086 smaller than (0.618) target of the intraday wave up from $12915. This wave favors a test of its $13200 equal to (1.00) target, which is in line with the 62 percent retracement from $13407. Overcoming $13200 would call for another attempt to test and close above $13400. This would negate the double top and clear the way for $13712 and likely $13840 in the coming days.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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Brent crude oil overcame the $64.81 swing high and settled above the XC (2.764) projection of the first wave up from $58.53, the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $73.73, and the 100- and 200-day moving averages today. Daily Trend indicators are bullish, prices are trading above the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, and the move above the $64.81 swing high breaks the trend down from $73.73. There is also a double bottom between the $58.27 and $58.53 swing lows. A broader bullish trend is emerging and would be confirmed by a sustained close above the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $58.27 and the 62 percent retracement from $73.73 at $68.0.

The $65.8 larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave up from $58.53 was held on a closing basis. The daily Stochastic is overbought, but there are no bearish patterns or signals that call for a reversal. Therefore, the outlook for tomorrow is bullish. Settling above $66.1 will call for $66.9 and likely a push to challenge $68.0 in the coming days.

Nevertheless, the move up is due for a test of support, and the $65.8 larger than target of the primary wave up from $58.53 is a prime level from which a correction could occur. Again, there are no bearish patterns or signals that call for such a move, but caution is warranted. Should Brent crude oil fall tomorrow, look for key near-term support at $64.1. Settling below this will take out today’s open and the 200-day moving average, opening the way for a deeper test of support with the next threshold at $63.1.

Brent crude oil has turned decisively bullish, breaking above the $64.81 swing high and settling above key Fibonacci projection levels and the 100- and 200-day moving averages. Prices are now trading above all major moving averages, daily trend indicators are bullish, and a double bottom around $58.4 strengthens the bullish case. A sustained close above $66.1 will call for $66.9 and likely $68.0. Key near-term support is $64.1, with a deeper correction to $63.1 and possibly lower in the case that $64.1 fails to hold.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

February gold’s pullback from $4584 looks like it is a completed correction. The $4286 XC (2.764) projection of the first wave down from $4584 and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $3933.2 held on a closing basis. The subsequent rise fulfilled the $4500 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $4284.3 and settled above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $4584. Most recently, the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $4284.3 held and prices rose above the $4478.4 corrective swing high, invalidating the prior primary wave down from $4512.4.

Gold is poised to test $4500 again. Settling above this will call for the $4532 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $4284.3 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $4319.7. Closing above $4532 will clear the way for another test of the $4563 intermediate target of the first wave up from $4302.8 and likely a new high of $4615.

Based upon the current wave structure, key support for the near-term is the $4327 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $4584. Should prices fall again and take out the $4426 smaller than target of the new wave down from $4512.4, look for a test of $4394, $4362, and possibly $4327. Closing below $4327 will shift the near-term odds in favor of gold falling to $4259 and eventually the $4212 equal to target of the wave down from $4584.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

February natural gas rose today, confirming daily bullish KasePO, RSI, Stochastic, and MACD divergences. These bullish momentum signals reflect exhaustion and call for a larger test of resistance before the downtrend extends and tests a highly confluent area of support between $3.30 and $3.20.

The intraday wave up from $3.324 met and held its $3.59 smaller than (0.618) target. Another test of $3.59 is expected, a move above which will call for the $3.67 equal to (1.00) target to be fulfilled. This is also the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $4.176. A simple correction will hold $3.67. Settling above $3.67 will call for an extended correction to challenge $3.77 and possibly $3.83. Settling above $3.83, which is in line with the larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $3.324 and the 62 percent retracement from $4.176, would indicate that a substantial test of resistance is underway.

Nonetheless, the downtrend remains intact, and the top of Monday’s gap down from $3.563 held on a closing basis. The gap might still prove to be an exhaustion pattern should prices settle above the $3.59 target. Otherwise, should $3.59 hold, and prices close below $3.43, look for another attempt to take out key near-term support at $3.30. This is the smaller than (0.618) target of the first wave down from $3.324 and the intermediate (1.382) target of the first wave down from $5.551. Settling below $3.30 would put the odds in favor of testing the $3.20 equal to target of the primary wave down from $5.551. This is another probable stalling point for the February natural gas contract.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil rose to test and hold the crucial $58.8 level before pulling back again. The $58.8 level is key near-term resistance because it is the larger than (1.618) target of the first wave up from $54.89, the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $54.89, and the 62 percent retracement from $61.25. The $58.8 level also sits just above the 50-day moving average, which has held on a closing basis. Today’s $58.87 high aligns with the $58.88 swing high, reinforcing resistance around $58.8.

Today’s close below the 20-day moving average and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $58.88 indicates that WTI crude oil should test the $56.3 equal to (1.00) target tomorrow. This objective is in line with the $56.31 swing low and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $54.89. Settling below $56.3 will imply that the corrective move up from $54.89 is complete, opening the way for a test of the $55.7 smaller than target of the wave down from $60.12 and likely the $55.3 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $58.88.

Should $56.3 hold, and prices recover to rise above $58.2, look for another test of $58.8. Settling above $58.8 will put the near-term odds in favor of WTI crude oil rising to $58.8, $59.9, and eventually the $60.3 equal to target of the primary wave up from $54.89.