Natural Gas Price Forecast – November 19, 2025

Author: Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the President of Kase and Company, Inc. He oversees all of Kase's operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2000 as a programmer but developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst and became President of the company in January 2024. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas held important near-term support at $4.27 on a closing basis Tuesday. Today’s rise confirmed Tuesday’s hammer by settling above Monday’s open. The corrective pullback from $4.688 is likely complete, and the move up is now poised to challenge the $4.63 larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $3.595 again. Settling back above $4.63 will call for another attempt to settle above the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $5.757 at $4.68. Closing above $4.68 will indicate that Wave V of a potential five-wave trend up from $3.595 is underway. In this case, look for a test of a minor target at $4.73 and then the $4.81 smaller than (0.618) target of Wave III up from $3.752 in the coming days.

There are no bullish patterns or signals that call for the move up to stall again tomorrow. Nonetheless, should prices fall, look for initial support at $4.46 and $4.38. Key support for the near-term is the $4.32 smaller than target of the wave down from $4.688. Settling below $4.32 would call for another test of $4.27 and likely an extended test of support, where $4.14 is the next major threshold. Taking out $4.14 would negate the potential for a five-wave trend up from $3.595.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil broke higher out of a bullish flag again. The most recent move up came after holding crucial support at $58.1 following last week’s failed breakout of the flag. Today’s close above the $60.7 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $58.1 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $61.84 was also bullish for the outlook in the coming days. WTI now favors a move above the $61.18 swing high to challenge the $61.7 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $58.1. This is a key objective because $61.7 is also in line with the smaller than target of the wave up from $55.99, the 38 percent retracement from $71.38, the 62 percent retracement from $65.33, and the 100-day moving average. A sustained close above $61.7 will confirm a bullish outlook for at least another couple of weeks.

Should prices turn lower again before overcoming the $61.18 swing high, which would invalidate the current wave down from $61.84, look for initial support at $60.2 and then $59.8. The $59.8 level is expected to hold. Settling below this will indicate that another false breakout of the flag has occurred. In this case, look for another attempt to take out major support at $58.1.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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Brent crude oil continues to trade in a range that could prove to be a correction of the rise from $59.97. However, today’s decline has put the near-term odds in favor of Brent testing $63.7 again. This is a key objective for the near-term because it is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $65.95 and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $59.97. Settling below $63.7 will call for another test of the 20-day moving average at $63.4 and likely a decline to fulfill the $62.9 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $65.95.

Nevertheless, $63.7 has been resilient support for the past week. Moreover, the $63.38 swing low may form the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders pattern with a neckline around $66.0. Should Brent continue to hold $63.7 and overcome the $65.0 smaller than target of the wave up from $63.38, look for another test of key near-term resistance at $65.8. Settling above $65.8 will put the odds back in favor of a continued rise above the neckline to challenge $66.5 and likely the $67.0 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $59.97.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December natural gas fell as called for and challenged the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $3.595 at $3.80, the $3.76 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $4.211, and the bottom of the October 20 breakaway gap up from $3.748. These important targets were held on a closing basis, and a daily morning star formed.

The bounce from $3.752 initially looked promising for bulls, but the late decline below $3.80 suggests that $3.76 will be challenged again early tomorrow. Closing below $3.76 will strongly suggest that the move up from $3.595 is complete and call for another attempt to settle below the $3.62 equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $5.757.

Nevertheless, this is a tight call for tomorrow because the area between $3.76 and $3.80 is extremely important. Most of the waves and sub-waves down from $4.139 project to levels between $3.76 and $3.80. This is a prime area for the move down to stall, and $3.76 is the target that December natural gas must hold for the move up from $3.595 to retain a reasonable chance at extending. Closing above $3.96 will overcome the larger than (1.618) target of the current wave up from $3.752 and confirm the morning star. This would suggest that the pullback from $4.139 is complete and call for a push to challenge a key threshold at $4.09. This is the XC (2.764) projection of the wave up from $3.752 and, more importantly, the smaller than target of the wave up from $3.595.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December WTI crude oil is pulling back after testing and holding the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $71.47 and the 62 percent retracement from $65.77 at $62.0 on a closing basis. The move up from $55.96 was due for a correction, and today’s decline completed Friday’s shooting star by settling below last Thursday’s $60.9 midpoint. A daily bearish KCDpeak (overbought signal) was also confirmed, but this could prove to be a bullish signal because it formed so quickly.

That said, the confirmation point of the shooting star, the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $55.96, and the equal to (1.00) target of the intraday wave down from $62.59, all around $60.0, held on a closing basis. Therefore, the pullback from $62.59 might prove to be short-lived and is probably forming the corrective leg of a wave up from $55.96.

The outlook for tomorrow is bearish. Prices are already dropping below $60.0 during the post-settlement trading hours. Tests of $59.4 and $58.9, the respective intermediate (1.382) and larger than (1.618) targets of the intraday wave down from $62.59, are favored. Settling below $60.0 for a few days will strongly suggest that prices will begin to consolidate. This is the most probable scenario for the near-term. Key support is the 62 percent retracement from $55.96 at $58.5. Settling below $58.5 for a few days will imply that the move up is failing.

Nevertheless, as stated, because $60.0 was held on a closing basis today, there is still a reasonable chance for the move up to extend in the coming days. Settling above key near-term resistance at $62.0 will confirm the pullback from $62.59 is complete, putting the near-term odds in favor of $62.6 and a push to challenge the next major threshold at $63.7.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December gold rose to test and hold the $4175 confirmation point of an intraday double bottom that formed around $4023. The outlook remains bearish given Tuesday’s bearish engulfing line, daily bearish momentum signals that were confirmed at the $4398 high, and the confirmation of a double (one could argue, triple) top that formed around $4396 that targets $4006. The daily Kase Trend indicator is now bearish, and the 10-day DMI is poised for a bearish crossover.

However, in addition to the formation of an intraday double bottom at $4023, the trendline up from $3353.4 and the 20-day moving average were both tested and held on Wednesday. Therefore, it may be premature to state that a top has been made and that a bearish reversal or a long period of consolidation is underway.

The key levels to watch ahead of the weekend and possibly for the next few days are $4011 and $4259.

The outlook leans bearish for tomorrow, and taking out the $4079 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $4175 will call for a test of $4011. This objective is key because it is in line with the target of the $4396 double top, the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $4175, the 89 percent retracement from $3957.9, and the 38 percent retracement from $3353.4. Settling below $4011 will also break the trendline up from $3353.4 and take out the 20-day moving average. Therefore, settling below $4011 would provide more strong evidence that a bearish reversal will continue to unfold and that prices will ultimately consolidate into a range.

Nevertheless, settling above $4175 will confirm the $4023 double bottom and call for a push to fulfill this pattern’s $4333 target. In this case, a test of key near-term resistance at $4259 would occur. The $4259 level is key because it is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $4021.2 and the 62 percent retracement from $4398. Typically, a close above the 62 percent retracement suggests that the decline from the measurement’s high is complete. Therefore, settling above $4259 will shift the odds in favor of a continued rise to $4333 and likely to retest the $4396 double top.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural gas rose to $3.572 and challenged the major trendline down from $5.396 and the 100-day moving average before pulling back and forming a daily long-legged doji. This candlestick pattern reflects near-term uncertainty and warns that a deeper test of support might occur before prices overcome the last major swing high at $3.585 and break above the trendline and the 100-day moving average. Even so, Monday’s breakaway gap, a daily bullish RSI divergence, and confirmed daily oversold signals strongly suggest that a bullish reversal is underway. Therefore, a deeper pullback will likely prove to be the corrective leg of a primary wave up from $2.893.

The outlook remains bullish, and overcoming $3.53 will call for a test of $3.60. This will overcome the $3.585 swing high, and a close above $3.60 will confirm a break above the trendline down from $5.396 and the 100-day moving average. This will also open the way for $3.65 and likely $3.74 in the coming days.

Nevertheless, there is a reasonable chance for a test of the $3.36 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $3.572 and the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $3.553 first. Falling below $3.36 would call for a test of the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2.893 at $3.31. A simple correction will hold $3.31. Settling below $3.31 would call for an extended correction to challenge $3.23 and possibly major support at $3.14. Closing below $3.14, the 62 percent retracement and smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $3.585, would imply that the move up has failed.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Brent crude oil continues to hold above the crucial $60.1 level. This is in line with the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $75.43, the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $75.43, and the psychologically important $60.0 threshold. This is a prime area for a correction. Friday and Monday’s hammers, an intraday double bottom around $60.1, today’s bullish engulfing line, and a daily KasePO PeakOut (oversold signal) also suggest that a correction should occur before settling below $60.1. Note that the last PeakOut occurred at the $57.88 swing low in early April. While this move up is not expected to be as significant, the confirmation of the PeakOut has shifted the near-term odds in favor of a larger correction in the coming days.

Today’s rise tested and held the $62.1 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $60.07 at $62.1. The subsequent pullback held the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $60.07. Brent crude oil is rising again late this afternoon and is expected to test $62.3 tomorrow. Closing above $62.3 will confirm the daily hammers and open the way for the $62.7 target of the double bottom to be fulfilled. This is also the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $60.07, the equal to target of the wave up from $60.35, and the 89 percent retracement from $63.04. Settling above $62.7, which will also be in line with the trendline down from $69.87 in two days, might be a challenge, but this would call for a test of $63.8 and possibly higher.

Nevertheless, the call for tomorrow remains tight because the downtrend is still firmly intact, and $62.1 was held today. Taking out the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $60.07 at $60.9 would warn that the corrective move up is failing and call for another attempt to settle below key support at $60.1. Upon a close below $60.1, the near-term odds will shift back in favor of Brent crude oil falling to $59.3 and likely the next confluence point at $58.5.

LME Copper Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The near-term call for copper remains extremely tight and has become a near 50/50 call. Tomorrow’s outlook leans bearish, but it is beginning to look like the corrective move down from $11000 will fail to extend. The key levels to watch are $10448 and $10794 ahead of the weekend.

The wave down from $10864.5 fulfilled its $10518 smaller than (0.618) target today, so this wave calls for a continued decline that would challenge the key $10448 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $11000. Settling below $10448 will clear the way for a test of this wave’s $10201 equal to (1.00) target before the uptrend extends to a new high.

That said, copper must take out $10518 again, and the wave up from $10463 is approaching its $10677 smaller than target. Overcoming this would call for a test of this wave’s $10794 equal to target. This is key near-term resistance because $10794 is also the smaller than target of the wave up from $10326. Settling above $10794 will imply that the corrective pullback from $11000 is complete, opening the way for $10917 and higher.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

November natural gas fell to challenge a key area of support at $2.96. This level is split between the $2.98 equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $5.396 and the $2.94 intermediate (1.382) and smaller than (0.618) target of the waves down from $4.573 and $4.122, respectively. Today’s decline stalled at $2.964 before prices rose and settled above $3.00. Today’s hammer and an oversold daily KaseCD momentum oscillator warn that another correction might occur. No bullish patterns or signals have been confirmed, so the outlook for tomorrow leans bearish. However, caution is warranted because this is an ideal spot for a correction.

Taking out $2.98 again will call for another attempt to test and close below $2.94. Settling below $2.94 will open the way for $2.90 and lower in the coming days. The next significant target below $2.94 is $2.75.

That said, the intraday wave up from $2.964 overcame its $3.022 smaller than target and should test at least the $3.06 equal to (1.00) target first. Overcoming $3.06 would call for a test of key near-term resistance at $3.10. Settling above $3.10 will confirm the daily hammer and likely a KCDpeak (oversold signal). In this case, look for a larger correction to challenge at least $3.20 before natural gas falls to a new low.