Natural Gas Price Forecast – May 12, 2021

Tag: Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Natural gas has been trading in a very indecisive manner for the past few weeks. A complex head and shoulders pattern has taken shape and would be confirmed by a close below $2.88. However, this pattern looks as though it will fail because the right side of the head and shoulders forms a bullish expanding wedge. June natural gas is challenging the upper trend line of this pattern this afternoon. Moreover, the small intraday wave up from $2.881 met its smaller than (0.618) target this afternoon and is now poised to reach $3.02. This is the most confluent target on the chart, so $3.02 could prove to be another stalling point. However, closing above $3.02 will clear the way for $3.07 and likely $3.13.

Natural Gas - $0.03 Kase Bar Chart
Natural Gas – $0.03 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, the top of the right shoulder of the head and shoulders pattern at $2.989 has held as of this analysis (marginally). Should June natural gas take out $2.95 early tomorrow look for a test of $2.91, which then connects to $2.86. Closing below $2.86 would also take out the $2.88 neckline of the head and shoulders and shift near-term odds in favor of a deeper test of support.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The near-term outlook for WTI crude oil leans bullish headed into tomorrow. Today’s early decline to $63.68 negated the double bottom that formed around $63.9 yesterday. However, the subsequent move up from $63.68 formed a wave that overcame its smaller than (0.618) target and is poised to reach $65.9. Such a move will overcome the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $66.76, fulfill the smaller than target of the compound wave up from $62.9, and most importantly, overcome the $65.75 intraday swing high, thus invalidating the primary wave down from $66.76. Overcoming $65.9 will also increase odds for a test of the $66.76 swing high, which then connects to a crucial target at $67.7.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.65 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.65 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, the near-term call remains tight. This is because while the $65.75 swing high holds there is still a reasonable chance for the primary wave down from $66.76 to extend. This wave has already taken out its smaller than target and projects to $63.0 as the equal to (1.00) target. Therefore, should $65.75 hold, and WTI falls below $64.1 to invalidate the wave up from $63.68, look for a test of $63.0. This is also the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $57.29. A “normal” correction should hold $63.0. Closing below this would reflect a stronger bearish shift in near-term sentiment and call for a deeper test of support before the move up continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold rallied again and settled above the highly confluent $1806 larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave up from $1676.2. The outlook is firmly bullish headed into tomorrow. The move up is now poised to challenge at least $1827 and likely $1837 during the next few days. The $1837 objective is another highly confluent wave projection and the target of the $1676 double bottom. Settling above $1837 might initially prove to be a challenge but would clear the way for $1857 and higher.

A few daily momentum oscillators are set up for bearish divergence but both momentum and price will have to peak to confirm these signals. Otherwise, there are no major bearish patterns or confirmed signals that call for a reversal. Even so, should gold pullback tomorrow look for today’s $1801 midpoint to hold. Key near-term support is $1787, a close below which would shift near-term odds in favor of a deeper test of support before the move up continues.

Gold - $5 Kase Bar Chart
Gold – $5 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The outlook for natural gas remains bullish because the move up from $2.521 looks to be forming a five-wave pattern that targets at least $3.03 and possibly $3.13. However, the move up is showing signs of exhaustion as it tries to overcome $3.00. This includes the potential formation of an ending diagonal pattern for Wave V. Even so, a move above $2.99 will call for $3.03 to be challenged. This is a highly confluent wave projection and retracement. Therefore, natural gas will likely be hard-pressed to settle above $3.03 without another test of support first. An eventual close above $3.03 would call for $3.08 and likely $3.13.

That said, momentum oscillators are waning and the bearish daily candlestick patterns, including a bearish engulfing line today, suggest a test of $2.90 and possibly $2.86 might take place first. Support at $2.86 is expected to hold. However, taking out $2.86 will call key support at $2.83 to be challenged. Settling below $2.83 remains doubtful but would reflect a bearish shift in supply and demand and near-term sentiment.

Natural Gas - $0.03 Kase Bar Chart
Natural Gas – $0.03 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The outlook for WTI crude oil remains bullish after overcoming the $65.47 swing high and challenging the $65.7 target today. This is a potential stalling point because $65.7 is the larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave up from $57.29, the XC (2.764) projection of a subwave up from $60.61, and is in line with the smaller than (0.618) target of a compound wave up from $60.61. Furthermore, a small intraday double top might be forming around $65.8.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.65 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.65 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, any move down will most likely prove to be a short-lived correction. Moreover, a move above $65.84 early tomorrow will negate the potential double top and call for at least $66.7 and possibly the next major objective at $67.7 during the next day or so. The $67.7 objective is the most confluent target on the chart and is crucial because it ties the waves up from $57.29 to the wave structure before the $67.29 swing high. Settling above $67.7 will clear the way for $69.1 and $70.1.

With that said, should WTI take out the $64.96 swing low first, the potential $65.8 double top would be confirmed. This would then call for a test of $64.2, which is in line with the pattern’s target, today’s open, and the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $57.29. Support at $64.2 is expected to hold, but a close below this will call for a test of key near-term support at $62.6. Settling below $62.6 is doubtful but would reflect a bearish shift in near-term sentiment.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold’s pullback from $1798.4 has been shallow and choppy compared to the prior move up. So far, the pullback has held $1752. This is the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $1677.3 and the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $1798.4. This means the decline is most likely corrective. Therefore, near-term odds favor a continued rise.

Gold - $5 Kase Bar Chart
Gold – $5 Kase Bar Chart

There is immediate resistance at $1881 but closing above $1791 would overcome the $1789.9 swing high and invalidate the primary wave down from $1798.4. Given the resilience of the pullback, settling above $1791 would also be a strong indication that the correction is complete, clearing the way for the next major targets at $1806 and $1837.

With that said, downside risk is increasing. Closing below $1752 would call for a test of $1738 and possibly key support at $1724. The $1738 level is expected to hold due to its confluence. The $1724 threshold is key because it is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1677.3. Settling below this would imply that the move up is over and shift longer-term odds back in favor of a continued decline.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Natural gas has taken on a more bullish outlook during the past week. The primary subwave up from $2.534 settled above its $2.92 smaller than (0.618) target and favors a test of its $3.03 equal to (1.00) target. The move up is beginning to look exhausted though, so settling above $3.03 will likely be a challenge during the next few days. Even so, this would clear the way for $3.03 and possibly $3.13, which is the highest that the primary wave up from $2.521 projects.

With that said, the move up has stalled just below the psychologically important $3.00 level at $2.988 and formed a bearish shooting star today. Therefore, there is a good chance for a test of $2.91 first. This is Tuesday’s midpoint and the completion point of the shooting star. Closing below $2.91 will call for a test of the shooting star’s $2.87 confirmation point. Confirming the shooting star would call for a deeper test of support before rising to challenge targets around $3.00 again.

Natural Gas - $0.03 Kase Bar Chart
Natural Gas – $0.03 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil broke higher out of an intra-day coil pattern and settled above the $62.43 swing high. This confirmed the double bottom between the $60.61 and $60.66 swing lows that formed Monday. The move up is now positioned to challenge a bullish decision point at $63.5 early tomorrow. This is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave up from $60.61, the 78 percent retracement of the decline from $64.38, and most importantly, the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $67.29.  Closing above $63.5 would imply that the corrective move down from $67.29 is complete, clearing the way for a test of the double bottom’s $64.2 target. This then connects to $64.9 and higher.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.35 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.35 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, when WTI rose to $64.38 just over a week ago $63.5 held on a closing basis. This has been a strong level of resistance and is still a highly confluent wave projection and retracement. Should WTI hold $63.5 look for a test of $62.3 and possibly $61.7. Support at $61.7 is expected to hold. Closing below this would reflect a bearish shift in near-term sentiment and call for a test of $59.8 and possibly lower.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold rose as expected and has definitively closed above the $1756 confirmation point of the $1676 double bottom. The daily Kase Trend and 10-day DMI indicators are now bullish and the ADX is beginning to rise. Moreover, the primary wave up from $1676.2 calls for $1789, which then connects to $1807. There is still an immediate target at $1776 that gold must contend with. However, because this is the smaller than (0.618) target of the subwave up from $1677.3, a close above this will also call for a push toward this wave’s $1807 equal to (1.00) target. This then connects to $1837 as the intermediate (1.382) target. Rising to $1837 has become more probable during the next few weeks because this is also the target of the confirmed double bottom.

There are no bearish patterns, setups, or signals that call for the move up to stall. However, the $1776 target is highly confluent, and gold is pulling back a bit in post-settlement trading hours. This suggests a test of support might take place before overcoming $1776. Support at $1751 is expected to hold and $1736 is key for the near term. Settling below $1736 will call for a test of the $1723.2 swing low, which is also the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $1677.3. Taking this swing low out will invalidate the subwave up from $1677.3 that projects to $1776 and makes the connection to $1807 and $1837. Therefore, a move below $1723, which is currently doubtful, would shift near-term odds to bearish.

Gold - $5 Kase Bar Chart
Gold – $5 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil is working its way toward the top of the trading range that prices have been oscillating in during the past few weeks. The outlook remains tight, and the range still looks corrective of the decline from $67.79. Nevertheless, near-term odds favor a test of $61.4. This is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $57.63. Settling above $61.4 will call for $62.5, which then connects to a bullish decision point at $63.8. Settling above $63.8 would imply that the move down from $67.79 is complete and clear the way for $65.6 and higher.

With that said, caution is warranted because the move up has not been able to overcome the $60.90 intra-day swing high during the last few days. Moreover, during the past few weeks each time WTI looks poised to break higher or lower out of the range the move has stalled and reversed course. Therefore, should WTI crude oil take out $59.1 tomorrow look for a test of $58.0, which then connects to a highly confluent support level at $57.0. Settling below $57.0 would call for a test of a bearish decision point at $55.7.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.65 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.65 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.