WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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May WTI crude oil’s wave up from $75.64 favors an eventual test of its $110.2 equal to (1.00) target. However, today’s pullback from $106.86 engulfed Monday’s long-legged doji. An intraday head and shoulders pattern with a complex right shoulder also formed, and the wave down from $106.86 favors a test of $98.8. This will break the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern around $99.5. Closing below $98.8 will also open the way for a test of $95.2 and possibly the head and shoulders’ target at $92.5, which is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $84.37. Therefore, the outlook for the next day or so leans in favor of a deeper test of support due to today’s bearish engulfing line and the intraday head and shoulders pattern.

Nevertheless, even in the case that the pullback from $106.86 extends, the move down is likely a correction of the broader uptrend. There is a modest chance for a test of the $104.2 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $99.43 early Wednesday. This is also in line with the 62 percent retracement from $106.86. Overcoming $104.2 will imply that the corrective pullback is complete. In this case, look for a test of $107.5, a close above which will put the near-term odds back in favor of May WTI rising to challenge the highly confluent $110.2 threshold.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

March WTI crude oil initially fell to challenge the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $54.84 at $62.0 and the $61.5 larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $66.48 again. Both levels held on a closing basis for the second straight day, and the rise from $61.12 is poised to reach its $64.3 smaller than (0.618) target. This is also the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $66.48. Settling above $64.3 will imply that the corrective pullback from $66.48 is complete and call for a push to challenge the $65.2 equal to (1.00) target of this wave and the 78 percent retracement. Rising to $65.2 will also fill Monday’s breakaway gap down from $65.21. Settling above $65.2 will call for another test of $66.1, an important target that held on a closing basis last week. Settling above $66.1 will clear the way for $66.9 and higher, putting March WTI back on a path to eventually challenge the $69.8 confirmation point of a double bottom that formed between the $54.56 and $54.84 swing lows.

Monday’s midpoint held on a closing basis, and the daily bearish KaseCD divergence and Stochastic overbought signals that were confirmed within the past few days warn that a deeper test of support might still occur. Taking out the $62.6 corrective swing low of the wave up from $61.12 will invalidate this wave and the connection it makes from $64.2 to $65.2 and higher. This will also call for another test of $62.0 and possibly key near-term support at $61.5. Settling below $61.5 will put the near-term odds in favor of March WTI falling to challenge $60.6 and lower.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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Brent crude oil overcame the $64.81 swing high and settled above the XC (2.764) projection of the first wave up from $58.53, the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $73.73, and the 100- and 200-day moving averages today. Daily Trend indicators are bullish, prices are trading above the 20-, 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, and the move above the $64.81 swing high breaks the trend down from $73.73. There is also a double bottom between the $58.27 and $58.53 swing lows. A broader bullish trend is emerging and would be confirmed by a sustained close above the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $58.27 and the 62 percent retracement from $73.73 at $68.0.

The $65.8 larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave up from $58.53 was held on a closing basis. The daily Stochastic is overbought, but there are no bearish patterns or signals that call for a reversal. Therefore, the outlook for tomorrow is bullish. Settling above $66.1 will call for $66.9 and likely a push to challenge $68.0 in the coming days.

Nevertheless, the move up is due for a test of support, and the $65.8 larger than target of the primary wave up from $58.53 is a prime level from which a correction could occur. Again, there are no bearish patterns or signals that call for such a move, but caution is warranted. Should Brent crude oil fall tomorrow, look for key near-term support at $64.1. Settling below this will take out today’s open and the 200-day moving average, opening the way for a deeper test of support with the next threshold at $63.1.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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January WTI crude oil failed to test the 62 percent retracement from $61.84 and the 50-day moving average around $60.0 again. The $60.0 level was challenged and held on Monday. Instead, prices fell and formed a daily bearish engulfing line. Today’s engulfing line is not as meaningful as one that forms during an uptrend. However, it suggests that a shortfall within the descending broadening wedge that formed during the decline from $61.84 has occurred. A shortfall is a failure to test the upper or lower trendline of a pattern and typically indicates the pattern will fail. In this case, the wedge may also fail because prices have already retraced more than 62 percent of the rise from $55.99. There is also a complex intraday head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at $58.3. The target of this pattern is $56.6.

A test of at least $58.3 and likely $57.7 will occur tomorrow. The $57.7 target is in line with the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $61.18 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $60.85. The $57.7 target has been tested a few times, but has held on a closing basis. Closing below $57.7 will provide more evidence that the wedge will fail to break higher and open the way for $57.1 and then a highly confluent and important target at $56.6.

Nevertheless, trading has been erratic for the past few weeks, thus the formation of the wedge. The 50 percent retracement of the rise from $57.1 held on a closing basis today, so there is still a modest chance for another attempt to overcome $60.0 and challenge the upper trendline of the wedge around $60.4. Closing above $60.4 will call for the $60.8 smaller than target of the wave up from $55.99 to be challenged. Settling above $60.7 will confirm a breakout of the wedge because this wave connects to $63.0 as the equal to target.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil broke higher out of a bullish flag again. The most recent move up came after holding crucial support at $58.1 following last week’s failed breakout of the flag. Today’s close above the $60.7 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $58.1 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $61.84 was also bullish for the outlook in the coming days. WTI now favors a move above the $61.18 swing high to challenge the $61.7 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $58.1. This is a key objective because $61.7 is also in line with the smaller than target of the wave up from $55.99, the 38 percent retracement from $71.38, the 62 percent retracement from $65.33, and the 100-day moving average. A sustained close above $61.7 will confirm a bullish outlook for at least another couple of weeks.

Should prices turn lower again before overcoming the $61.18 swing high, which would invalidate the current wave down from $61.84, look for initial support at $60.2 and then $59.8. The $59.8 level is expected to hold. Settling below this will indicate that another false breakout of the flag has occurred. In this case, look for another attempt to take out major support at $58.1.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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Brent crude oil continues to trade in a range that could prove to be a correction of the rise from $59.97. However, today’s decline has put the near-term odds in favor of Brent testing $63.7 again. This is a key objective for the near-term because it is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $65.95 and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $59.97. Settling below $63.7 will call for another test of the 20-day moving average at $63.4 and likely a decline to fulfill the $62.9 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $65.95.

Nevertheless, $63.7 has been resilient support for the past week. Moreover, the $63.38 swing low may form the right shoulder of an inverse head and shoulders pattern with a neckline around $66.0. Should Brent continue to hold $63.7 and overcome the $65.0 smaller than target of the wave up from $63.38, look for another test of key near-term resistance at $65.8. Settling above $65.8 will put the odds back in favor of a continued rise above the neckline to challenge $66.5 and likely the $67.0 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $59.97.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

December WTI crude oil is pulling back after testing and holding the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $71.47 and the 62 percent retracement from $65.77 at $62.0 on a closing basis. The move up from $55.96 was due for a correction, and today’s decline completed Friday’s shooting star by settling below last Thursday’s $60.9 midpoint. A daily bearish KCDpeak (overbought signal) was also confirmed, but this could prove to be a bullish signal because it formed so quickly.

That said, the confirmation point of the shooting star, the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $55.96, and the equal to (1.00) target of the intraday wave down from $62.59, all around $60.0, held on a closing basis. Therefore, the pullback from $62.59 might prove to be short-lived and is probably forming the corrective leg of a wave up from $55.96.

The outlook for tomorrow is bearish. Prices are already dropping below $60.0 during the post-settlement trading hours. Tests of $59.4 and $58.9, the respective intermediate (1.382) and larger than (1.618) targets of the intraday wave down from $62.59, are favored. Settling below $60.0 for a few days will strongly suggest that prices will begin to consolidate. This is the most probable scenario for the near-term. Key support is the 62 percent retracement from $55.96 at $58.5. Settling below $58.5 for a few days will imply that the move up is failing.

Nevertheless, as stated, because $60.0 was held on a closing basis today, there is still a reasonable chance for the move up to extend in the coming days. Settling above key near-term resistance at $62.0 will confirm the pullback from $62.59 is complete, putting the near-term odds in favor of $62.6 and a push to challenge the next major threshold at $63.7.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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Brent crude oil continues to hold above the crucial $60.1 level. This is in line with the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $75.43, the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $75.43, and the psychologically important $60.0 threshold. This is a prime area for a correction. Friday and Monday’s hammers, an intraday double bottom around $60.1, today’s bullish engulfing line, and a daily KasePO PeakOut (oversold signal) also suggest that a correction should occur before settling below $60.1. Note that the last PeakOut occurred at the $57.88 swing low in early April. While this move up is not expected to be as significant, the confirmation of the PeakOut has shifted the near-term odds in favor of a larger correction in the coming days.

Today’s rise tested and held the $62.1 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $60.07 at $62.1. The subsequent pullback held the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $60.07. Brent crude oil is rising again late this afternoon and is expected to test $62.3 tomorrow. Closing above $62.3 will confirm the daily hammers and open the way for the $62.7 target of the double bottom to be fulfilled. This is also the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $60.07, the equal to target of the wave up from $60.35, and the 89 percent retracement from $63.04. Settling above $62.7, which will also be in line with the trendline down from $69.87 in two days, might be a challenge, but this would call for a test of $63.8 and possibly higher.

Nevertheless, the call for tomorrow remains tight because the downtrend is still firmly intact, and $62.1 was held today. Taking out the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $60.07 at $60.9 would warn that the corrective move up is failing and call for another attempt to settle below key support at $60.1. Upon a close below $60.1, the near-term odds will shift back in favor of Brent crude oil falling to $59.3 and likely the next confluence point at $58.5.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Brent crude oil tested and held the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $57.88 at $61.7 on a closing basis today. Even so, the outlook remains bearish because the wave down from $69.87 favors a test of its $60.7 equal to (1.00) target. The waves down from $75.43 and $71.20 call for a continued decline to fulfill the next major target and a probable stalling point at $60.1.

Taking out $61.7 will invalidate the intraday wave up from $61.50 that held its $62.7 equal to target. This will also clear the way for a confluent $61.1 target that makes a connection to $60.1.

The daily KasePO and Stochastic are oversold, and the RSI is nearing oversold territory. There are no bullish patterns or confirmed signals that call for the move down to stall, but the oversold momentum oscillators warn that another test of resistance might occur soon. Moreover, for the near-term, the intraday wave up from $61.50 shows potential to extend to $63.1 and possibly $63.4. The $63.4 level is expected to hold. Overcoming this would call for a test of key near-term resistance at $64.0. This is in line with the $63.95 swing high, the 50 percent retracement from $66.58, and Friday’s midpoint. Settling above $64.0 would shift the near-term odds in favor of Brent rising to $64.5 and higher.