WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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December WTI crude oil is pulling back after testing and holding the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $71.47 and the 62 percent retracement from $65.77 at $62.0 on a closing basis. The move up from $55.96 was due for a correction, and today’s decline completed Friday’s shooting star by settling below last Thursday’s $60.9 midpoint. A daily bearish KCDpeak (overbought signal) was also confirmed, but this could prove to be a bullish signal because it formed so quickly.

That said, the confirmation point of the shooting star, the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $55.96, and the equal to (1.00) target of the intraday wave down from $62.59, all around $60.0, held on a closing basis. Therefore, the pullback from $62.59 might prove to be short-lived and is probably forming the corrective leg of a wave up from $55.96.

The outlook for tomorrow is bearish. Prices are already dropping below $60.0 during the post-settlement trading hours. Tests of $59.4 and $58.9, the respective intermediate (1.382) and larger than (1.618) targets of the intraday wave down from $62.59, are favored. Settling below $60.0 for a few days will strongly suggest that prices will begin to consolidate. This is the most probable scenario for the near-term. Key support is the 62 percent retracement from $55.96 at $58.5. Settling below $58.5 for a few days will imply that the move up is failing.

Nevertheless, as stated, because $60.0 was held on a closing basis today, there is still a reasonable chance for the move up to extend in the coming days. Settling above key near-term resistance at $62.0 will confirm the pullback from $62.59 is complete, putting the near-term odds in favor of $62.6 and a push to challenge the next major threshold at $63.7.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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Brent crude oil continues to hold above the crucial $60.1 level. This is in line with the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave down from $75.43, the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $75.43, and the psychologically important $60.0 threshold. This is a prime area for a correction. Friday and Monday’s hammers, an intraday double bottom around $60.1, today’s bullish engulfing line, and a daily KasePO PeakOut (oversold signal) also suggest that a correction should occur before settling below $60.1. Note that the last PeakOut occurred at the $57.88 swing low in early April. While this move up is not expected to be as significant, the confirmation of the PeakOut has shifted the near-term odds in favor of a larger correction in the coming days.

Today’s rise tested and held the $62.1 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $60.07 at $62.1. The subsequent pullback held the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $60.07. Brent crude oil is rising again late this afternoon and is expected to test $62.3 tomorrow. Closing above $62.3 will confirm the daily hammers and open the way for the $62.7 target of the double bottom to be fulfilled. This is also the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $60.07, the equal to target of the wave up from $60.35, and the 89 percent retracement from $63.04. Settling above $62.7, which will also be in line with the trendline down from $69.87 in two days, might be a challenge, but this would call for a test of $63.8 and possibly higher.

Nevertheless, the call for tomorrow remains tight because the downtrend is still firmly intact, and $62.1 was held today. Taking out the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $60.07 at $60.9 would warn that the corrective move up is failing and call for another attempt to settle below key support at $60.1. Upon a close below $60.1, the near-term odds will shift back in favor of Brent crude oil falling to $59.3 and likely the next confluence point at $58.5.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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Brent crude oil tested and held the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $57.88 at $61.7 on a closing basis today. Even so, the outlook remains bearish because the wave down from $69.87 favors a test of its $60.7 equal to (1.00) target. The waves down from $75.43 and $71.20 call for a continued decline to fulfill the next major target and a probable stalling point at $60.1.

Taking out $61.7 will invalidate the intraday wave up from $61.50 that held its $62.7 equal to target. This will also clear the way for a confluent $61.1 target that makes a connection to $60.1.

The daily KasePO and Stochastic are oversold, and the RSI is nearing oversold territory. There are no bullish patterns or confirmed signals that call for the move down to stall, but the oversold momentum oscillators warn that another test of resistance might occur soon. Moreover, for the near-term, the intraday wave up from $61.50 shows potential to extend to $63.1 and possibly $63.4. The $63.4 level is expected to hold. Overcoming this would call for a test of key near-term resistance at $64.0. This is in line with the $63.95 swing high, the 50 percent retracement from $66.58, and Friday’s midpoint. Settling above $64.0 would shift the near-term odds in favor of Brent rising to $64.5 and higher.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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November WTI crude oil pulled back to test and hold the 78 percent retracement of the rise from $60.40 before rallying. Prices settled below the $61.8 confirmation point of Friday’s inverted hammer but overcame the smaller than (0.618) target of the new primary wave up from $60.40 and the sub-wave up from $60.72. The move up is likely a correction, but the inverted hammer, confirmed daily RSI and MACD divergences, and the wave formation up from $60.40 call for a test of at least $62.4. Overcoming $62.4 will call for a move above the 38 percent retracement from $66.42 at $62.7 to challenge a confluent $63.0 target and possibly higher in the coming days.

The move up from $60.40 has been relatively shallow compared to the decline from $66.42, and as stated, is likely a correction. Currently, taking out $61.1 would call for a test of $60.6, a close below which will strongly suggest that the correction is complete. However, WTI will likely have to take out $60.3, the most confluent threshold on the chart, and a projection of the waves down from $66.42, $63.02, and $62.12 to open the way for $60.0 and lower.

Also note that should $62.4 hold and prices begin to pull back again, a bearish flag will form. Therefore, breaking through $62.4 will be crucial in proving that the move up from $60.40 is more than a short-lived correction.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil rallied and broke higher out of a bullish pennant today. Prices also settled above the $65.3 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $61.29, the 50 percent retracement from $69.36, and the 200-day moving average. WTI crude oil is now poised to challenge the 62 percent retracement from $69.36 and the 38 percent retracement from $74.25 at $66.2. This is an important target that could prove to be a stalling point. However, odds favor an eventual rise above $66.2 to challenge the $66.8 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $61.29. This is also the highest that the first wave up from $61.29 projects. Settling above $66.8 will confirm a bullish outlook.

There is no substantial technical evidence that suggests the move up will stall before testing at least $66.2. Even so, as stated, $66.2 is a potential stalling point. Also, it is fairly common to see a pullback to test the breakout point of a pattern after a break higher. Should price fall within the next day or so $65.1 should hold. Falling below this will call for a test of $64.7 and possibly key near-term support at $64.0. Settling below $64.0 would signal that today’s break higher out of the pennant was a false breakout. In this case, the near-term odds would shift in favor of challenging $63.1 and lower.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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November Brent crude oil held the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $71.93 and the 200-day moving average on a closing basis on Monday. Today’s decline retraced nearly 50 percent of the rise from $64.54 and has put prices back below the 20- and 50-day moving averages. This suggests that the corrective move up from $64.54 is complete.

Tomorrow, look for a test of the 62 percent retracement at $66.1. Settling below this will call for another attempt to take out the 62 percent retracement of the rise from 57.81 and the 100-day moving average at $64.9. Closing below $64.9 will clear the way for another test of the $64.6 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $76.39. This is a bearish decision point because settling below $64.6 for a few days would open the way for an eventual test of this wave’s $60.0 equal to (1.00) target and break the bottom trend line of a large flat descending triangle around $64.5.

That said, the move up from $64.54 stalled short of the upper trend line of the flat descending triangle pattern. Should prices rally again and close above $68.6, look for a break higher out of the pattern to challenge the $69.1 smaller than target of the wave up from $64.5. This is also the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $71.93. The wave up from $64.5 connects to $72.0 as the equal to target.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil held below the 21 percent retracement of the decline from $70.51 and settled back below the 100-day moving average today. The move down is poised to challenge $62.8 again. This is an area where a double bottom may have formed. The $62.8 objective is also in line with the $62.83 and $62.81 swing highs of a range that prices traded in between early April and late May. However, based on the recent intraday waves down from $64.48 and $64.44, WTI crude oil favors a test of $62.4. This is a longer-term bearish decision point because $62.4 is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $54.01 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $75.98. This wave connects to $57.4 as the equal to (1.00) target. Therefore, a sustained close below $62.4 will confirm a bearish outlook for the coming weeks.

Nevertheless, given the confluence and importance of both the $62.8 and $62.4 targets, sustaining a close below $62.4 will likely be a challenge without a test of resistance first. The daily Stochastic is oversold, and the move down from $70.51 is due for a correction. Should prices rise above $63.9, look for a test of $64.4. Settling above this will call for a push to challenge $65.0 and possibly $65.6 before the move down extends. Settling above $65.6 is doubtful but would reflect a bullish shift in sentiment.

Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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September Brent crude oil broke higher out of the recent trading range by settling above $70.0 today. The rise during the past two days reflects an increase in bullish sentiment. The move up is now poised to fulfill the $72.1 equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave up from $65.06. This is a potential stalling point, but any pullback will likely be a correction and should hold $70.6. Settling above $72.1 will clear the way for a test of $72.5, the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $77.73 at $72.9, and then the $74.2 intermediate (1.382) target of the primary wave up from $65.06 in the coming days.

There are no bearish patterns or signals that call for the move up to stall after today’s break higher. Even so, $72.1 is a confluent target and, as stated, a potential stalling point. A correction is expected to hold today’s $70.6 midpoint and the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $65.06. Falling below this would call for a test of key near-term support at $69.4. This threshold is in line with today’s open, the 38 percent retracement, and the 200-day moving average. Closing below $69.4 will warn that the move up is failing and call for tests of the 50 and 62 percent retracement levels at $68.5 and $67.7, respectively.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

September WTI crude oil has been indecisive for the past week. Today, prices fell to challenge the $65.2 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $68.16, the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $62.84 at $64.9, and the 20-day moving average. All three held on a closing basis. Even so, prices have held below the 200-day moving average for the past three days, and the move up from $62.84 has not been able to settle above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $75.98 at $67.8.

The near-term outlook is tight. The 62 percent retracement of the rise from $62.84 at $64.9 has been resilient. However, the wave down from $68.16 leans in favor of testing its $63.9 equal to (1.00) target, given that the $65.2 smaller than target has been fulfilled. Therefore, the near-term outlook leans bearish, and closing below $64.9 will clear the way for a test of $64.3 and likely $63.9 in the coming days.

Nevertheless, because $64.9 has held twice on a closing basis within the past week, there is still a reasonable chance for another attempt to challenge crucial resistance at $67.8 again. Overcoming the 200-day moving average at $66.2 will call for a test of the $66.8 smaller than target of the wave up from $64.38. This wave then connects to $67.8 as the equal to target. Settling above $67.8 will confirm a bullish outlook.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil confirmed Monday’s dark cloud cover and settled below the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $64.0 and the 200-day moving average. This was bearish for the near-term outlook, and a test of $66.0 is expected. Settling below this will take out the 62 percent retracement from $64.0 and warn that the recent move up is a completed correction of the decline from $78.4.

That said, the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $64.0 at $66.2 was tested and held. Moreover, today’s doji reflects uncertainty. Overcoming the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $69.65 at $67.5 will call for a test of the 62 percent retracement at $68.3. Closing above this will call for another attempt to settle above key near-term resistance and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $78.4 at $69.5.