Brent Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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September Brent crude oil broke higher out of the recent trading range by settling above $70.0 today. The rise during the past two days reflects an increase in bullish sentiment. The move up is now poised to fulfill the $72.1 equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave up from $65.06. This is a potential stalling point, but any pullback will likely be a correction and should hold $70.6. Settling above $72.1 will clear the way for a test of $72.5, the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $77.73 at $72.9, and then the $74.2 intermediate (1.382) target of the primary wave up from $65.06 in the coming days.

There are no bearish patterns or signals that call for the move up to stall after today’s break higher. Even so, $72.1 is a confluent target and, as stated, a potential stalling point. A correction is expected to hold today’s $70.6 midpoint and the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $65.06. Falling below this would call for a test of key near-term support at $69.4. This threshold is in line with today’s open, the 38 percent retracement, and the 200-day moving average. Closing below $69.4 will warn that the move up is failing and call for tests of the 50 and 62 percent retracement levels at $68.5 and $67.7, respectively.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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September WTI crude oil has been indecisive for the past week. Today, prices fell to challenge the $65.2 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $68.16, the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $62.84 at $64.9, and the 20-day moving average. All three held on a closing basis. Even so, prices have held below the 200-day moving average for the past three days, and the move up from $62.84 has not been able to settle above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $75.98 at $67.8.

The near-term outlook is tight. The 62 percent retracement of the rise from $62.84 at $64.9 has been resilient. However, the wave down from $68.16 leans in favor of testing its $63.9 equal to (1.00) target, given that the $65.2 smaller than target has been fulfilled. Therefore, the near-term outlook leans bearish, and closing below $64.9 will clear the way for a test of $64.3 and likely $63.9 in the coming days.

Nevertheless, because $64.9 has held twice on a closing basis within the past week, there is still a reasonable chance for another attempt to challenge crucial resistance at $67.8 again. Overcoming the 200-day moving average at $66.2 will call for a test of the $66.8 smaller than target of the wave up from $64.38. This wave then connects to $67.8 as the equal to target. Settling above $67.8 will confirm a bullish outlook.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil confirmed Monday’s dark cloud cover and settled below the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $64.0 and the 200-day moving average. This was bearish for the near-term outlook, and a test of $66.0 is expected. Settling below this will take out the 62 percent retracement from $64.0 and warn that the recent move up is a completed correction of the decline from $78.4.

That said, the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $64.0 at $66.2 was tested and held. Moreover, today’s doji reflects uncertainty. Overcoming the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $69.65 at $67.5 will call for a test of the 62 percent retracement at $68.3. Closing above this will call for another attempt to settle above key near-term resistance and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $78.4 at $69.5.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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August WTI crude oil held above the 100-day moving average and rose to test the $66.0 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $64.0. The $66.0 level held. However, prices now have a slightly better chance of rising to challenge this wave’s $66.9 equal to (1.00) target versus falling to challenge the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $54.13 at $63.4. Closing above $66.9 will open the way for a test of the $67.7 intermediate (1.382) target, which, more importantly, is in line with the confirmation point of daily bullish candlesticks that formed last week and on Monday. Upon a close above $67.7, look for a larger test of resistance with targets at $68.5 and then $69.5. A normal correction of the decline from $78.40 will hold $69.5.

Nevertheless, this is still a tight call for the next few days because $66.0 and the midpoint of last Tuesday have held. Taking out the $64.5 swing low will invalidate the wave up from $64.0 and call for another attempt to test major support at $63.4. The $63.4 level is key because it is the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $54.13 and the top of the range that the August contract had traded in between early April and late May.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil continued to fall as called for. Monday’s bearish engulfing line and the confirmation of daily RSI and Stochastic overbought signals suggest that a reversal is underway. Prices have also taken out an important swing low at $67.84 and settled below the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $54.13 and the 20-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages. Tomorrow, look for a test of the 62 percent retracement at $63.4. This is also the intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $67.19. A sustained close below $63.4 will confirm a bearish reversal and open the way for a continued decline in the coming days.

The decline from $78.40 is due for a correction. Prices bounced from $64.38, but the retracement was minimal relative to the size of the move down. The challenge is that there are no bullish patterns, signals, or setups that call for a test of resistance. The $63.4 target is an ideal stalling point, but again, there are no bullish factors that call for $63.4 to hold at this point.

Should prices rally before taking out $63.4 and close above today’s $67.7 open, look for a test of the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $78.40 at $69.5. A normal correction is expected to hold $69.5. Closing above this would reflect rising bullish sentiment again, opening the way for a more significant test of resistance.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil rose early today and overcame the $65.5 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $54.95. However, the move up stalled just below the $66.4 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $59.74. The subsequent pullback formed a daily dark cloud cover reversal pattern and took out the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $59.74.

The outlook for the coming weeks is bullish after the market broke higher out of the trading ranges that began in early April and May. Daily trend indicators are leaning bullish, and the primary wave up from $54.33 favors an eventual test of the $68.2 intermediate (1.382) target.

However, today’s pullback and formation of a daily dark cloud cover indicate that a test of at least $63.8 should occur before prices settle above $66.4. There are also daily bearish KaseCD and MACD divergence setups. These signals will likely be confirmed tomorrow unless a new high is made. Settling below $63.8 would call for the corrective pullback to extend to $63.0, $62.2, and possibly the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $54.33 at $61.7. A normal correction of the rise from $54.33 should hold $61.7.

That said, the move down from $66.28 lacks a clear wave, so a bounce might occur early tomorrow. Resistance at $65.5 is expected to hold. Overcoming this would suggest that the corrective pullback will be short-lived and call for another attempt to test and close above key near-term resistance at $66.4.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil is still trading in a tight range in the upper half of a wider trading range that began on April 9. The move up during the past couple of days negated a head and shoulders pattern and has sustained a close above the 50-day moving average. The wave formation calls for a continued rise, and settling above $64.0 will call for the $64.7 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $54.33 to finally be fulfilled. Settling above $64.7 will confirm a break higher out of the wide range, opening the way for $65.4 and higher.

Nevertheless, the 38 percent retracement of the decline from the $78.48 contract high at $63.6 was tested and held on a closing basis again today. This has been a resilient level of resistance that has been challenged a few times and continues to hold on a closing basis each time it is challenged. The $63.6 level is also in line with the 89 percent retracement of the decline from $64.19. Therefore, caution is warranted. Furthermore, a small double top around $63.89 has formed. This pattern would be confirmed by a close below the $62.19 swing low. Taking out $62.9 before overcoming the double top would call for a test of $62.2. Settling below $62.2 would shift the near-term odds in favor of testing the $61.2 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $64.19 as prices fall to fulfill the $60.5 target of the double top.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil continues to trade near the upper end of a wide range that began in early April. Prices rose to challenge the 78 percent retracement of the decline from $63.44 at $62.7 early this week and fulfilled the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $60.08. This wave calls for a test of its $63.5 equal to (1.00) target, which is in line with the 38 percent retracement of the decline from the $78.48 contract high. The $63.5 objective has been tested a few times and has been held on a closing basis. Even so, another test of $63.5 will not likely hold because the wave up from $54.33 favors a test of its $64.7 equal to (1.00) target. Therefore, the near-term outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish.

Nevertheless, trading early this week has reflected uncertainty, warning that another test of support might occur before breaking higher out of the range. Should prices settle below the $60.6 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $63.44, look for a test of $60.2 and then the $59.3 equal to (1.00) target of this wave. The $59.3 level is expected to hold. Settling below this would call for a bearish decision point within the range around $58.0 to be tested.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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June WTI crude oil rose to test and hold the $59.8 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave up from $55.30. Prices settled above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $64.87 and confirmed Monday’s hammer candlestick pattern. The outlook for tomorrow is bullish, and a test of the larger than (1.618) target and 50 percent retracement at $60.2 is expected. Overcoming this would call for a near-term bullish decision point at $61.4 to be challenged. This objective is split between the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $54.67 and the 62 percent retracement from $64.87. Settling above $61.4 will likely be a challenge. However, this would imply that the move down from $64.87 is complete and that WTI crude oil will rise to $63.0 and then attempt to close above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from the $79.22 contract high at $64.1 again.

Nevertheless, all major prior swing highs that formed during the move down from $64.87 have held. The 10-day DMI and ADX also reflect a downtrend. Therefore, the move up from $55.30 is still a correction at this point. Prices also pulled back at the end of the day and may test the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $55.30 and today’s midpoint at $58.1 first. Falling below this would call for key near-term support at $57.1 to be challenged. Settling below $57.1 will shift the near-term outlook back to bearish, opening the way for $55.9 and lower.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI crude oil rose a bit higher today as called for in Monday’s update. The move up is still poised to rise because the primary wave up from $54.67 favors a test of its $66.2 equal to (1.00) target in the coming days. Settling above the $64.4 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $59.87 will call for $65.1, which then makes the connection to $66.2. A solid test of support is anticipated once the $66.2 objective is fulfilled.

That said, the June contract is struggling to settle above the 38 percent retracement of the decline from the $79.22 contract high at $64.1. A bearish KasePO divergence on the $0.50 Kase Bar chart also warns that a test of $62.5 might occur first. This level is expected to hold. Taking out $62.5 would call for a test of key near-term support and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $54.67 at $60.7.