Crude Oil Price Forecast – May 7, 2024

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil is trying to work its way lower but is struggling to settle below $78.0 support. This is in line with the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $70.11 and the 100- and 200-day moving averages. Even so, the outlook remains bearish and a close below $77.5, which is the intermediate (1.382) target of the waves down from $86.97 and $85.64, will open the way for $76.5 and then a bearish decision point at $76.0 to be challenged. The $76.0 target is most important because this is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $86.97 and 62 percent retracement of the rise from $70.11. A test of resistance is anticipated before sustaining a close below $76.0. An eventual sustained close below $76.0 would confirm a longer-term bearish shift in sentiment and the outlook for the coming weeks.

With that said, the failure to close below $78.0 for the past few days warns that a test of resistance might take place before reaching $76.0. Any move up will likely be a correction though and is expected to hold key near-term resistance at $80.1. Settling above $80.1 would shift the odds in favor of a larger test of resistance for WTI crude oil before the move down extends.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.