WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast
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WTI crude oil is still trying to work its way lower and is poised to test the intermediate (1.382) target of the waves down from $86.97 and $85.64 again. Support at $78.0 has held on a closing basis, but the recent waves down from $79.96 favor a test of $77.5 tomorrow. Settling below $77.5 will open the way for tests of $77.0, $76.5, and then a long-term bearish decision point at $76.0. The $76.0 target is most important because it is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $86.97 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $69.08. A sustained close below $76.0 would reflect a longer-term bearish shift in sentiment for WTI crude oil.
With that said, support between $77.5 and $78.0 has been resilient. In addition to being a confluent area of wave projections at $77.5, the $78.0 level lines up with the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $69.08 and the 100- and 200-day moving averages. Should this area continue to hold and WTI crude oil rises above $78.5 look for a test of $79.0 and possibly key near-term resistance at $79.6. The $79.6 level is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $76.89. Settling above this would call for a test of this wave’s $80.8 equal to (1.00), which is also the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $86.97.
