Crude Oil Price Forecast – May 14, 2024

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil is still trying to work its way lower and is poised to test the intermediate (1.382) target of the waves down from $86.97 and $85.64 again. Support at $78.0 has held on a closing basis, but the recent waves down from $79.96 favor a test of $77.5 tomorrow. Settling below $77.5 will open the way for tests of $77.0, $76.5, and then a long-term bearish decision point at $76.0. The $76.0 target is most important because it is the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $86.97 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $69.08. A sustained close below $76.0 would reflect a longer-term bearish shift in sentiment for WTI crude oil.

With that said, support between $77.5 and $78.0 has been resilient. In addition to being a confluent area of wave projections at $77.5, the $78.0 level lines up with the 50 percent retracement of the rise from $69.08 and the 100- and 200-day moving averages. Should this area continue to hold and WTI crude oil rises above $78.5 look for a test of $79.0 and possibly key near-term resistance at $79.6. The $79.6 level is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $76.89. Settling above this would call for a test of this wave’s $80.8 equal to (1.00), which is also the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $86.97.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.