WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast
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WTI crude oil surged higher today, overcoming the $80.11 swing high and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $86.16 late Monday afternoon. The $80.0 level held on a closing basis, but the post-settlement move above $80.0 implies that a break higher out of the recent trading range is taking place. The $80.11 swing high is also the confirmation point of a double bottom that formed between the $76.36 and $76.15 swing lows. The target for this pattern is $84.0. Today’s rise also confirmed daily bullish KasePO, RSI, and Stochastic divergences.
Tomorrow, look for a test of the 20-day moving average and 50 percent retracement around $81.1. Settling above this will call for a test of the important 62 percent retracement at $82.3. Closing above $82.3 for a few days will imply that the corrective move down from $86.16 is complete and that WTI crude oil is adopting a longer-term bullish outlook again.
Should $80.0 continue to hold on a closing basis and WTI crude oil takes out the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $76.15 and today’s midpoint at $78.7 look for a test of the 62 percent retracement, today’s open, and the 200-day moving average around $77.7. Settling below $77.7 would imply that the move up was an overreaction to external factors. This is doubtful but would put the odds back in favor of WTI crude oil falling below $76.6 to challenge a longer-term bearish decision point at $75.8.
