Crude Oil Price Forecast – April 17, 2024

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

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WTI crude oil’s corrective move down accelerated today. Prices settled below the 20-day moving average, the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $80.3, and the $84.55 confirmation point of a double top that formed around $87.65. The daily Kase Trend indicator is now bearish and the 10-day DMI had a bearish crossover. The $82.56 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $87.67 held, so a test of resistance might occur first. Even so, today’s $84.0 midpoint is expected to hold because the move down should now fulfill the $81.5 target of the double top within the next few days. Settling below $81.5 will call for the $81.1 intermediate (1.382) target and possibly the $80.3 larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $87.67 to be fulfilled.

The aggressive nature of today’s move down likely reflects a bearish shift in near-term sentiment. Nevertheless, the move down is still a correction and would have to take out the last major swing low of $80.3 to suggest further that a reversal is underway. Also, because $82.6 held on a closing basis there is a modest chance for a test of resistance first. As stated, today’s $84.0 midpoint is expected to hold. Overcoming this would call for a test of key near-term resistance and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $87.67 at $84.5. This was major support that has now become resistance given $84.5 is also in line with the $84.55 confirmation point of the confirmed double top.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.