Natural Gas Price Forecast – January 6, 2021

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The outlook for natural gas is bullish after challenging a crucial target around $2.74 today. Nevertheless, this objective and the $2.775 swing high held on a closing basis. Therefore, $2.74 is still a factor for the near-term. Closing above this and overcoming the $2.775 swing high will confirm a winter bottom has been made and clear the way for a push toward the next major objective and a long-term bullish decision point at $3.00.

Natural Gas - $0.035 Kase Bar Chart
Natural Gas – $0.035 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, the wave formation up from $2.263 is due for a test of support before rising much higher. Moreover, today’s high wave candlestick (long upper and lower shadows) reflects uncertainty. Therefore, there is a reasonable chance for a test of $2.663 and possibly $2.58 before natural gas settles above $2.74 and overcomes the $2.775 swing high. Support at $2.58 is expected to hold. Closing below this will call for a deeper test of support where $2.46 is the barrier to a renewed bearish outlook.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

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