Natural Gas Forecast: Correction Poised to Test $2.51

September natural gas’s correction down from $2.99 is extending after breaking lower out of a coil formation. Tuesday’s close below $2.66, the 0.618 projection of the wave $2.99 – 2.591 – 2.911, opened the way for the 1.00 projection at $2.51. The $2.51 target is also the 50 percent retracement of the move up from $2.009 to $2.99 and the 62 percent retracement from $2.195. Unless there is a bearish shift in underlying fundamentals, $2.51 should hold.

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The KaseCD, a second derivative momentum indicator, is setup for bullish divergence on the daily chart. First resistance is $2.63. The key level for the near-term is $2.68. This is Tuesday’s midpoint and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $2.911. A close over $2.68 would indicate September natural gas will most likely settle back into the recent trading range.

This is a brief natural gas forecast for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and intraweek updates provide a much more detailed and thorough analysis. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

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