Gold Price Forecast – June 25, 2020

Gold Price Forecast

Since mid-April, gold futures have traded in a sideways range that formed a rectangle pattern between nominally $1670 and $1790. The upper threshold of the pattern was briefly overcome on Wednesday, but $1790 held on a closing basis. Even so, odds favor a break higher out of the pattern. A close above $1790 will call for $1820 and eventually a move to the rectangle’s $1910 target ($1789 + ($1789 – $1668.4) = $1909.6).

Gold – Daily Rectangle

Nevertheless, the $1790 threshold is also a confluent projection for the waves up from $1668.4 and $1671.7. Therefore, a test of $1750 support might take place first. Closing below $1750 will call for key near-term support at $1723. Any move down will likely be corrective and should result in a short fall (a failed test of the rectangle’s bottom). Even so, should gold close below $1723 look for another oscillation within the rectangle before a breakout of the pattern occurs.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

Gold Price Forecast

Gold futures are trading within the boundaries of a rectangle pattern. This is bullish for the long-term. A close above $1790 will confirm a break higher, clearing the way for the next major targets at $1816 and higher.

Gold – Daily Rectangle

However, for the past few days gold has struggled to overcome resistance around $1744. This is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1789.0 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $1671.7. Odds still favor a continued rise and a close above $1749 will call for $1761, which then connects to $1790.

That said, today’s failure to close above $1744 suggests a deeper test of support might take place first. Support at $1703, the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $1671.7, is expected to hold. Falling below this would call for $1685 and then $1666, the lower of which is in line with the bottom of the rectangle. Settling below $1666 would confirm a break lower out of the pattern and a strong bearish shift in sentiment.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Price Forecast

Gold is trading in a range between nominally $1670 and $1790. This is bullish for the long-term outlook as the range forms a rectangle top, a pattern that breaks higher around 63 percent of the time. The pattern also reflects the significance of $1665 support and $1790 resistance and sets gold up for a breakout trade in either direction. Both $1665 and $1790 are highly confluent wave projections, and in the case of $1665, retracements, too.

Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

The move above $1744, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $1668.4 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1787.5, during the last few days was positive and suggests gold should challenge $1790 again soon. This is the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $1668.4. Closing above $1790 will confirm a break higher out of the rectangle pattern, clearing the way for $1815 and higher.

Nevertheless, the recent move up looks a bit overextended on the intra-day charts and has not been able to close above $1744. Therefore, a test of $1723 and possibly $1698 will likely take place first. Support at $1698 is expected to hold. Closing the week below this will call for $1665, which is in line with the bottom of the rectangle. Closing below $1665 would confirm a break lower out of the pattern and clear the way for a much more substantial move down.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Price Forecast

The long-term outlook for gold is bullish and $1820 is the next major objective. However, gold is stuck in a trading range and the lower trend line of the range was broken yesterday. Also, the recent decline below the smaller than (0.618) targets of the primary waves down from $1789.0 and $1787.5 suggests a test of the lower end of the range around $1670 might take place before a break higher.

Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, today’s settle above Wednesday’s midpoint and the formation of a bullish piercing pattern on the daily chart call for a test of at least $1740 and possibly $1751 first. Resistance at $1751 is expected to hold. Rising above this would call for key resistance at $1690 to be challenged. Settling above $1690 would shift near-term odds back in favor of $1780, which then makes a connection to targets above the upper trend line of the trading range.

In summary, technical analysis factors are mixed. The long-term outlook is bullish, near-term odds favor a test of $1670 before breaking higher out of the trading range, and a test of at least $1739 should take place first. This implies that trading will continue to be extremely choppy during the next few days and possibly for another few weeks.

Silver Price Forecast

Silver’s recent decline from the $18.950 swing high is most likely corrective. However, a daily bearish engulfing line and confirmed bearish KaseCD, MACD, and RSI divergences call for a deeper test of support before the move up continues to the next major objective of $19.54.

Tomorrow, look for a test of at least $17.65, which then connects to $17.33. Support at $17.33 is the most confluent objective on the chart and is expected to hold. Closing below this would call for a much more significant test of support before the move up continues.

Silver – Daily Chart

Nonetheless, today’s formation of a doji dampens odds for a larger correction. Should silver rise above $18.17 look for a test of $18.43. The latter is the doji’s confirmation point, a close above which would call for key resistance at $18.78. Settling above $18.78 would indicate the corrective move down is over and clear the way for the push toward $19.54.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Price Forecast

The long-term outlook for gold remains bullish. However, the near-term outlook calls for a larger test of support before the move up continues.

During the last few days, gold prices have fallen back into the range of a bullish coil that prices had broken higher out of on May 14. Yesterday, gold tested and held the lower trend line of the pattern and today the upper trend line. This afternoon’s decline from the upper trend line formed a long upper shadow on the daily candlestick, which is negative for the outlook during the next few days.

Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

The primary wave down from $1788.8 has taken out its smaller than (0.618) target. Most waves that take out the smaller than target extend to the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $1653. Therefore, near-term odds favor a larger downward correction where $1653 is the key objective. Tomorrow, look for at least $1697 and possibly $1681. Closing below $1681 will significantly increase odds for $1653. Nonetheless, at this point, the move down is most likely corrective and $1653 is expected to hold.

Conversely, should gold overcome $1741, the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1755.8, near-term odds will shift in favor of $1752, which then connects to $1775 and eventually $1796.

Silver Price Forecast

July silver is working its way back toward the $18.165 swing high and overcame the $18.08 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $17.19 today. Ultimately, silver is expected to reach $19.55, the equal to target of the primary wave up from $11.68. The connection to $19.55 is made through $18.40 and then $18.60. Rising to $19.55 will likely take at least another few weeks.

Silver – Daily Chart

Nonetheless, because the $18.08 target held on a closing basis today, a small test of support might take place first. Support at $17.52 is expected to hold. Closing below this will call for a test of $17.14. Settling below $17.14 is doubtful and would reflect a bearish shift in near-term sentiment. This would also open the way for a much more substantial test of support before the move up continues toward $19.55 as expected.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Price Forecast

Gold fell below the upper trend line of the bullish coil that prices broke out of on May 14. The pullback from $1755.8 is most likely corrective but is poised to extend to $1704 ahead of the holiday weekend. This is in line with the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $1775.8, the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $1788.8, and the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $1666.2.

The confluence and importance of targets around $1704 make it a decision point for a bearish near-term outlook. For the move up to continue during the next few days $1704 must hold.

Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

Closing below $1704 will call for $1679 and likely $1653. Support at $1653 is expected to hold.

Should $1704 hold, look for initial resistance at $1738 and key near-term resistance at $1753. Settling above $1753 will shift near-term odds back in favor of $1777, which then connects to $1799 and the next major objective at $1821.

Silver Price Forecast

The long-term outlook for silver is bullish. However, the recent move up stalled at the XC (2.764) projection of the primary wave up from $14.715. This is the highest this wave projects. The subsequent move down formed a bearish engulfing line and confirmed an evening star today. This strongly implies that a deeper correction will take place during the next day or so before the move up continues.

Based on the intra-day waves down from $18.165, look for a test of at least $17.13 and possibly $16.91 before the move up continues. The $16.91 objective is split between the larger than (1.618) target of the primary wave down from $18.165 and the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $14.715. For the move up to continue during the next few days $16.91 must hold. Closing below this would call for $16.39 and possibly $16.03 before silver rallies again.

Silver – Daily Chart

Should silver turn higher before taking out $17.13 support, look for initial resistance at $17.82 and key resistance at $18.08. Settling above $18.08 would shift near-term odds back in favor of rising toward the next major objective at $19.54 with interposed targets at $18.42 and $18.74.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold broke higher out of a coil pattern and settled the day above $1737, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $1666.2. The move up is now poised to reach at least $1752 and likely $1774 during the next few days. Settling above $1774 will clear the way a new high of $1802 and then the next major objective of $1821.

Prices are still flirting with the coil’s upper trend line, so there is a modest chance for another test of support once $1752 is met. Support at $1720 will likely hold, but a decline to $1702 and even $1690 would still be considered corrective of the move up from $1676.0. Settling below $1690 is unlikely but would shift near-term odds in favor of $1658 and possibly lower.

Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

Gold’s formation of a bullish engulfing line today strongly suggests that the primary wave down from $1788.8 may fail to meet its $1642 equal to (1.00) target as previously expected. Instead, prices are poised to rise and challenge at least $1752, which then connects to $1764. Overcoming $1764 would call for a move above the $1764.2 swing high. This would invalidate the wave down from $1788.8 and clear the way for $1797 and higher.

Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, the 62 percent retracement of the move down from $1764.2 held today, and the move up from $1683.0 lacks a definitive wave restructure. Therefore, a test of $1710 support might take place first. This level is expected to hold. Key support for the near-term is $1697. Settling below $1697 would shift near-term odds back in favor of a move toward $1642.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

The June gold contract stalled just below the $1741 target discussed in yesterday’s update before falling and taking out the $1704.1 swing low. The move down held key support at $1688. However, this is the smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave down from $1788.8. Therefore, meeting $1688 implies that a larger downward correction will take place before prices rise to a new high. The next major objective is the $1641 equal to (1.00) target with interposed objectives at $1677 and $1654.

Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

The $1688 target is a potential temporary stalling point. Should a test of resistance take place early tomorrow look for $1717 to hold. Key resistance and the barrier for a resumed near-term bullish outlook is $1735. Settling above $1735 would call for prices to rise above the $1737 swing high, negating the wave down from $1764.2 that makes the connection to $1641 through $1677 and $1654.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

The outlook for gold is bullish and the move up is poised to extend to the next major objective at $1798. However, the wave formation up from $1666.2 is due for a pullback. Therefore, a test of support is expected before $1798 is overcome on a sustained closing basis.

Gold held important support around $1665 on Tuesday and settled above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $1788.8 today. This implies that the outlook remains bullish and rising above $1771 early tomorrow will clear the way for $1798. The $1798 objective is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $1576.0 and the highest the primary wave up from $1666.2 projects. As stated, a test of support is expected before $1798 is overcome. Nonetheless, closing above $1798 will clear the way for $1821, the equal to (1.00) target of the primary wave up from $1453.0.

Gold – $20 Kase Bar Chart

Prices fell a bit from the $1764.2 swing high at the end of the day. The wave formation up from $1666.2 is a bit extended, which suggests a test of support might take place first. Initial support at $1723 is expected to hold. Closing below this will delay the move to $1798 and would call for key support at $1688. Closing below $1688 is doubtful but would call for another attempt at $1665 and likely $1644 before the move up extends to a new high.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ration, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.