Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold tested and held the $3420 smaller than (0.618) target of the primary wave up from $3151 today. Most waves that meet the smaller than target extend to eventually fulfill at least the equal to (1.00) target, in this case, $3500. Therefore, the outlook for gold remains bullish. Settling above $3425, a confluence point among the projections of the waves and subwaves up from $3151, will open the way for $3454 and then $3500.

Nevertheless, the pullback from $3427.7 may test $3322 first. This is the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $3151 and a level that a normal correction should hold. Closing below $3322 would call for an extended correction to challenge the respective 50 and 62 percent retracement at $3290 and $3257. Gold must settle below $3257 to imply that the move up from $3151 is complete and that a reversal is underway.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rose to fulfill the $3341 intermediate (1.382) target of the waves up from $3123.3 and $3156.4 before pulling back. Today’s bearish engulfing line warns that a test of at least the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $3123.3 at $3261 will occur first. However, while the 62 percent retracement at $3209 holds, the near-term outlook should continue to lean bullish.

Settling above $3341 will call for a test of a key target at $3368 that is in line with projections of the waves up from $3123.3, $3156.4, and $3207.4, as well as the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3509.9. Settling above $3368 will strongly suggest that the corrective pullback from $3509.9 is complete and that prices will rise to $3420 and higher in the coming days.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold initially fell to test and hold $3325 as suspected. However, the bounce up from $3325.4 stalled at $3375.7, and prices fell to test the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $3348.2 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $3209.4 at $3296. This important level held on a closing basis, but the move up from $3293.3 has been minimal so far. This is an ideal stalling point should the pullback from $3448.2 prove to be a short-lived correction.

That said, today’s close below the 20-day moving average and the minimal move up from $3293.3 suggest that a test of $3263 will take place ahead of the weekend. This is a bearish decision point because it is the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $3509.9. Settling below $3263 will call for an extended correction to challenge $3200, and then this wave’s $3148 equal to (1.00) target.

Nevertheless, should prices rally after holding $3296 on a closing basis and overcome $3358, look for a test of $3392. Settling above $3392 will imply that the pullback from $3448.2 is complete. Even so, at this point, gold must settle above the $3441 smaller than target of the wave up from $3209.4 to establish a firm bullish outlook that targets $3538 and higher.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rose and settled above Wednesday’s midpoint and the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $3509.9. This dampens the odds that the wave down from $3509.9, which met its $3276 smaller than (0.618) target, will extend to fulfill its $3202 equal to (1.00) target. However, while the $3396 intra-day swing high holds, this wave will still favor an eventual test of $3202.

Today’s rise warns that the corrective move down from $3509.9 might already be complete. Overcoming the $3386 smaller than target of the wave up from $3270.8 would call for a move above the $3396 intra-day swing high to challenge key near-term resistance at $3421. This is the equal to target of the wave up from $3270.8 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3509.9.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rose to a new high and settled just below the psychologically important $3000 level. The wave up $2844.1 is now poised to test at least the $3017 intermediate (1.382) target and likely the $3043 larger than (1.618) target within the next few days. The $3043 objective is also the XC (2.764) projection of the wave up from $2882.5 and is an important projection for the larger-scale waves up from $2107.8 and $2392.4. Given that $3043 is the most confluent and important target on the chart, it is a potential stalling point.

There are no daily bearish patterns or signals that call for a reversal. However, the KasePO is overbought on the $10 Kase Bar chart. The KaseCD is also set up for a bearish divergence on this chart. Any move down will likely be a simple correction and should hold today’s $2967 midpoint. Today’s $2943 open is key near-term support.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold finally broke out of the range between $2887 and $2970. The $2887 level, which was also the target of the confirmed $2794 double top, held on a closing basis, but prices are already trading back below $2887 during post-settlement trading hours. Furthermore, prices finally settled below the 20-day moving average, which had held for the past two days.

The move down is now poised to reach at least the $2864 equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $2974. Settling below this will clear the way for tests of this wave’s $2840 intermediate (1.382) target and then the $2822 larger than (1.618) target. The $2822 objective is most important because this is in line with the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2586.7. A simple correction of the uptrend should hold $2822. Settling below this will imply that a much more significant test of support is underway.

Nonetheless, because $2887 was held on a closing basis, there is still a modest chance that a false break lower has occurred. Should prices overcome $2916 look for a test of key near-term resistance at $2939. Settling above $2939 will put the near-term odds in favor of gold testing $2970 again.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold is struggling to close above the $2965 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2886.5. This would confirm a break higher out of the range between $2887 and $2965 that prices have been trading in since February 11. Prices briefly rose above the $2965 target today but stalled at $2973.4 before pulling back again. The pullback held the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2886.5 and then rose to test and hold $2965 again.

Prices are still trading near the top of the range and another test of $2965 is expected. Settling above this will confirm a break higher and open the way for tests of $2980 and likely $2997 in the coming days.

That said, this is a tight call ahead of the weekend. The indecisive trading that has taken place for the past two days has formed an intra-day head and shoulders pattern on the $5 Kase Bar chart. The challenge for this pattern is that the neckline is upward sloping. Head and shoulders patterns with upward sloping necklines generally do not perform as well as those with a flat or downward sloping neckline. Nonetheless, this pattern and today’s doji warn that another test of support within the range might take place before closing above $2965.

Closing below $2943, the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $2973.4 will confirm a break of the neckline and open the way for $2930 and then a test of the $2909 target of the head and shoulders. This is also the larger than (1.618) target of the wave down from $2973.4. The $2909 level is key support for the near term because settling below this will put the odds in favor of another test and attempt to take out the bottom of the range at $2887.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

The longer-term outlook for gold is bullish after settling above the $2867 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2392.4 on February 4. This wave calls for an eventual test of its $3041 equal to (1.00) target. However, the move up has been due for a correction and today’s move down confirmed a daily bearish MACD divergence and an overbought daily RSI signal. The daily KasePO is also overbought and a daily hanging man formed. The hanging man would be confirmed upon a close below $2854, which should also confirm the KasePO overbought signal.

This is a tight call for the near-term but the outlook for tomorrow lean bearish. Another test of $2854 is expected, a close below which will call for $2840. A minimal correction will hold $2840 because this is the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $2586.7. Settling below $2840 will call for an extended correction to challenge $2814 and then the 38 percent retracement at $2784.

Nevertheless, the MACD divergence, RSI overbought signal, and hanging may fail to lead to a deeper test of support. This is because the equal to (1.00) target of the intra-day wave down from $2906 held and prices have already retraced just over 50 percent of the decline from $2906. Overcoming the $2894 intra-day swing high will invalidate the wave down from $2906 and call for a test of $2914. Settling above $2914 will call for the test of another major target and potential stalling point at $2931.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rallied today and finally settled above the $2795 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2565 and fulfilled the $2825 target. The $2826.3 swing high was overcome but there is potential for a double top with today’s $2829.5 high. Nonetheless, it is doubtful that the double top will form because the wave formation calls for a test of a minor target at $2835 and then the next major target at $2849. The $2849 objective is highly confluent, and, most importantly, is in line with the smaller than (0.618) target of the largest wave up from $2372.6.

Aside from the potential for a double top, there are no other bearish patterns or signals that call for the move up to stall. Even so, after such a large single day move up a test of support might take place first. Today’s $2798 midpoint is expected to hold. Key support for the near term is today’s $2773 open and the 21 percent retracement of the rise from $2565. Settling below $2773 before prices rise any higher would indicate that a double top has formed and call for an extended test of support in the coming days.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold rose today and finally settled above the 50 percent retracement of the decline from $2761.3, the 50-day moving average, and the intermediate (1.382) target of the primary wave up from $2596.7. Tomorrow, look for a test of this wave’s $2704 larger than (1.618) target. Settling above $2704 will call for a test of a $2721 bullish decision point that is in line with the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave up from $2565. Closing above $2721 should initially be a challenge given this target’s confluence and importance but will confirm a bullish outlook for gold and open the way for $2741, $2771, and then a test of the $2795 equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2565.

Nevertheless, the equal to (1.00) target of the wave up from $2608.4 and the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $2761.3 were tested and held today. Prices settled just below this level around $2698, but there are no bearish patterns or signals that call for the move up to stall. Even so, $2698 is a potential stalling point. Should prices pull back look for the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $2596.7 at $2659 to hold. Closing below this would call for a test of key near-term support and the 62 percent retracement at $2635.