Natural Gas Price Forecast – June 9, 2021

Author: Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Natural gas held $3.17 resistance as expected in yesterday’s daily update before falling toward $3.11 again. The near-term outlook leans neutral-to-negative and a move below $3.11 early tomorrow will call for a test of $3.08. For the move up to retain a reasonable chance at rising above the $3.20 double top during the next few days, $3.08 must hold. Closing below this will call for a test of $3.05 and likely crucial support at $3.01. Settling below $3.01 is doubtful during the next few days but would call for natural gas to challenge the double top’s $2.903 confirmation point.

With that said, should natural gas overcome $3.17 before taking out $3.08 look for a test of $3.21. Settling above $3.21 would negate the double top and shift odds firmly back in favor of rising to $3.25 and $3.29.

Natural Gas - $0.03 Kase Bar Chart
Natural Gas – $0.03 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil fell to challenge support at $68.7 as expected before rallying above the psychologically important $70.0 level. Prices settled just above $70.0 and are rising in post-settlement trading hours. There is immediate an immediate target at $70.4, but the move up is poised to reach $71.2 during the next day or so.

The $71.2 target is a highly confluent objective and potential stalling point for WTI. However, there is no technical evidence that calls for a major reversal. Therefore, any move down will most likely prove to be corrective. Initial support is $69.3 and key near-term support is $68.3. Settling below $68.3 would call for a deeper test of support before the uptrend continues.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.65 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.65 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Natural gas pulled back a bit and formed an inside day. Yesterday’s $3.07 midpoint held on a closing basis but the wave down from $3.15 still has potential to extend. Trading will likely become more erratic during the next few days as the pullback still looks corrective. Near-term odds favor a continued rise, though they have been dampened. Overcoming $3.11 will call for a test of $3.16, a close above which will clear the way for a push toward $3.20 and higher.

Nevertheless, should the pullback from $3.15 extend first look for a test of $3.04 and possibly $3.00. Closing below $3.00 would imply that yesterday’s move up was another premature rally. In this scenario, prices could fall toward $2.96 and even $2.91 again, but overall, such a move would be reflective of natural gas settling into a wide trading range.

Natural Gas - $0.03 Kase Bar Chart
Natural Gas – $0.03 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil rallied as expected after the holiday weekend. The move up briefly overcame an area of high confluence centered around $68.3 but stalled at $68.87. The subsequent pullback suggests a test of support might take place early tomorrow, but near-term odds favor a continued rise. Support at $66.7 is expected to hold and a move back above $68.3 will clear the way for the next major objective at $69.7 during the next few days.

Nevertheless, should WTI take out $66.7, look for a test of $65.4 and possibly $64.4. The $64.4 level is key for the near-term outlook because it is in line with the 38 percent retracement of the rise from $57.18 and the 62 percent retracement from $61.56. Closing above this would shift near-term odds in favor of a more significant test of support before the move up continues.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.65 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.65 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Natural gas overcame the $3.045 intra-day swing high today. This invalidated the prior primary wave down from $3.204 that had fulfilled its smaller than (0.618) at the $2.903 swing low. This is bullish for the near-term outlook and suggests that natural gas will now rise to challenge $3.09. This is the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $3.204. Closing above this would strongly imply that the corrective move down is complete and clear the way for a test of $3.15 and possibly $3.20.

With that said, the $3.045 swing high was only marginally overcome and there is now a new primary wave down from $3.204 that projects to $2.86 as the smaller than (0.618) target. Additionally, the move up from $2.903 lacks a meaningful primary wave. Therefore, there is still a reasonable chance of a deeper test of support or for prices to settle into a period of consolidation. Should natural gas take out $2.99 early tomorrow look for a test of $2.96, which, based on current technical factors is expected to hold. Key near-term support is $2.90, a close below which would call for a test of $2.86.

Natural Gas - $0.03 Kase Bar Chart
Natural Gas – $0.03 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

The near-term outlook for WTI crude oil is bullish due to the sustained close above the 62 percent retracement of the decline from $67.02 and the $65.56 smaller than (0.618) target of the compound wave up from $60.55. This wave calls for a test of $68.1, the connection to which is made through $67.4. Closing above $67.4 would also indicate that WTI has definitively overcome $67.0, which has been strong resistance for several weeks.

Nevertheless, today’s formation of a bearish doji dampens odds for reaching $67.4 and $68.1 tomorrow. This pattern also suggests a test of $64.8 might take place first. This level is expected to hold. Closing below $64.8 would complete the doji and call for a test of key near-term support at $63.3. This is in line with the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $67.02 and the smaller than target of the wave down from that same swing high. Closing below $63.3 is doubtful but would call for a deeper test of support before the move up continues.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.65 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.65 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold has sustained a close above the 200-day moving average for the past four days. This is bullish for the outlook and suggests the market has adopted longer-term bullish sentiment. The challenge for the near-term is that bearish daily candlestick patterns and momentum signals indicate a test of support might take place before rising to challenge the next major objective at $1897.

Gold - $10 Kase Bar Chart
Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, a move above $1885.3 early tomorrow will negate some of the downside risk by invalidating the intra-day wave down from $1891.3. Based on the wave structure, a move above $1885 should clear the way for $1897, a close above which will clear the way for $1910 and higher.

With that said, should gold take out the $1867 smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $1891.3 first, look for a test of at least $1856 and possibly $1846 during the next few days. Closing below $1856 will confirm the bearish candlestick patterns and settling below $1846 will confirm them. For now, $1846 is expected to hold, but settling below this will call for a deeper correction before the move up continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

Natural Gas Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Natural gas continued to decline as expected today and settled back below $3.00 and the bottom of Monday’s gap. The pullback indicates that Monday’s rally to $3.15 was too much too soon. At this point, it looks as though natural gas will settle back into a trading range. The danger is that because of Monday’s failed rally, and due to confirmed bearish reversal patterns and signals, the pullback could overextend before finding a bottom.

With that said, given current technical factors, near-term odds favor a test of $2.92, a close below which will call for $2.88 and possibly $2.84. There is currently no strong evidence to call for a move below $2.84. However, closing below $2.84 would imply that the move down will likely extend to $2.76 and possibly lower before settling back into a trading range.

Natural Gas - $0.03 Kase Bar Chart
Natural Gas – $0.03 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, the decline from $3.15 lacks a clear wave structure, and the move up from $2.94 at the end of today indicates a test of $3.02 might take place first. This level is expected to hold. Overcoming $3.02 would call for $3.07 and possibly $3.11. Settling above $3.07 would imply the pullback is complete. Closing above $3.11 would shift near-term odds back in favor of a continued rise to $3.17 and higher.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Natural Gas Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key natural gas futures contracts, calendar spreads, the UNG ETF, and several electricity contracts. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.

WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast

WTI crude oil rose to $67.0 as called for today and negated the double and triple top patterns that formed around $66.65. Today’s move also fulfilled the $67.0 smaller than (0.618) target of the subwave up from $60.55. This and other subwaves up from $57.18 now call for an extension to at least $68.1 during the next few days. The connection to $68.1 is made through the $66.6 smaller than target of the wave up from $63.12, which projects to $68.1 as the equal to target.

Nevertheless, today’s pullback suggests the move up will remain a grind. Choppy trading conditions and wide swings are anticipated. Even so, should WTI take out $63.9 before reaching $66.6 look for a test of key near-term support at $62.9. Closing below this will call for a deeper test of support before the move up continues.

WTI Crude Oil - $0.65 Kase Bar Chart
WTI Crude Oil – $0.65 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

Gold is struggling to reach the next major objective at $1857 after briefly overcoming the $1837 target of the confirmed $1676 double bottom. A small double top around $1846.3/$1844.7 has formed but the $1817.8 confirmation point of this pattern has held so far. The pullback from $1846.3 looks corrective and the outlook for gold in the coming weeks remains bullish. However, there is still downside risk, which makes this is an extremely tight near-term call for the next few days.

Should gold overcome $1832 early tomorrow look for a test of $1842. Settling above $1842 will clear the way for $1857, which then connects to $1874 and higher.

Conversely, should gold take out $1815 first, look for $1804 to be challenged. Closing below $1815 will confirm the double top and settling below $1804 will call for a test of the double top’s $1788 target. At this point, there is no strong evidence to call for a move below $1788.

Gold - $10 Kase Bar Chart
Gold – $10 Kase Bar Chart

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.