WTI Crude Oil Technical Analysis and Short-Term Forecast
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WTI crude oil took out the $86.35 and $86.13 swing lows but stalled at $85.95 before bouncing at the end of the day. The 38 percent retracement of the rise from $55.27 at $86.1 was held on a closing basis. Even so, prices settled below the equal to (1.00) target of the wave down from $97.0 and sustained a close below the 50-day moving average.
The outlook remains bearish, and falling below $86.4 will clear the way for a test of the $85.4 intermediate (1.382) target of the wave down from $97.0. This is also the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $105.21. Settling below $85.4 will confirm a bearish outlook because the wave down from $105.21 connects to $78.1 as the equal to target.
That said, the $86.4 target has been a strong area of support, and the late bounce warns that another test of resistance might occur. Look for initial resistance at $90.1 and key near-term resistance at $91.9. The $91.9 level is the 50-day moving average. Settling back above $91.9 will put the near-term odds in favor of a more significant test of resistance in the coming days.
