Gold Price Forecast – January 14, 2021

Gold Technical Analysis and Near-Term Outlook

The longer-term outlook for gold is bearish once again after the pullback from $1962.5 accelerated and took out the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $1973.3 and the 62 percent retracement of the rise from $1767.2. The subsequent move up from $1817.1 has been shallow and choppy and is most likely corrective. Moreover, today’s decline to $1826.6 wiped out most of the intra-day waves that had formed during the move up from $1817.1.

Near-term odds also favor a continued decline. A move below $1835 will call for $1820 and $1808. Settling below $1808 will clear the way for $1789 and lower.

Gold - $15 Kase Bar Chart
Gold – $15 Kase Bar Chart

Nevertheless, the move up from today’s $1826.6 low met the smaller than target of the newly formed primary wave up from $1817.1. Therefore, this wave has a reasonable chance of rising to challenge its $1873 equal to (1.00) target before the decline continues. Rising above $1856 early tomorrow will increase odds for a test of $1873. This is also the 38 percent retracement of the decline from $1962.5 and is expected to hold. Closing above $1873 would call for a larger test of resistance before the decline continues.

This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Metals Commentary and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover key COMEX precious metals futures contracts and LME Non-Ferrous (Base) metals, spot gold, the gold/silver ratio, and gold ETFs. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial

Published by

Dean Rogers, CMT

Dean Rogers, CMT is the general manager of the Kase Call Center in Albuquerque, New Mexico. He oversees all of Kase and Company, Inc.’s operations including research and development, marketing, and client support. Dean began his career with Kase in early 2001 as a programmer but has developed into Kase’s senior technical analyst. He writes Kase’s award-winning weekly Crude Oil, Natural Gas, and Metals Commentaries. He is an instructor at Kase's classes and webinars and provides all of the necessary training and support for Kase's hedging models and trading indicators for both retail and institutional traders.

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