WTI Crude Oil Price Forecast
WTI crude oil’s decline from $29.13 accelerated this afternoon and took out the $25.4 and $24.5 targets discussed in yesterday’s update. Based on the primary wave down from $29.13, the move is still poised to challenge the crucial $23.3 objective. This is near the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $19.27, and more importantly, the $23.34 swing low. Taking out $23.3 would invalidate the wave up from $19.27 that projects to $31.5 and higher. This would also put near-term odds in favor of falling to challenge $22.0 and lower.
Nonetheless, WTI met support around the $23.5 larger than (1.618) target of the sub-wave down from $28.24. Also, the small wave up from $23.54 met its smaller than (0.618) target, which suggests a test of the $25.0 equal to (1.00) target will probably take place first. This is near today’s midpoint and will likely hold.
Rising above $25.0 would call for an extended upward correction to $25.7, the larger than target and 38 percent retracement from $29.13. For the move down to extend to $23.3 and lower during the next day or so $25.7 must hold.
Closing above $25.7 would call for key near-term resistance at $27.1. This is the highest the wave up from $23.54 projects, is the 62 percent retracement from $29.13 and is the smaller than target of the sub-wave up from $23.34. Settling above $27.1 would shift odds back in favor of $28.5 and higher.
Brent Crude Oil Price Forecast
Brent’s move down from $35.0 still looks to be corrective but should reach at least $30.9 tomorrow. Falling below this will call for an extended correction to $29.7. This is the 62 percent retracement of the move up from $28.01 and the smaller than (0.618) target of the wave down from $36.29. For the move up to have any reasonable chance at extending during the next few days $29.7 must hold. Closing below this will clear the way for $28.9 and eventually $26.7.
The small move up from $31.74 suggests Brent could test $33.4 first, but this level is expected to hold. Key resistance for the near-term is $34.2. Overcoming $34.2 would invalidate the recent waves down from $35.0 that project to $30.9 and lower. This would also shift odds back in favor of challenging $35.0 again, above which the next major objective is $36.1.
This is a brief analysis for the next day or so. Our weekly Crude Oil Forecast and daily updates are much more detailed and thorough energy price forecasts that cover WTI, Brent, RBOB Gasoline, Diesel, and spreads. If you are interested in learning more, please sign up for a complimentary four-week trial.